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LOU

Louisville 35 at Washington 34

WASH
2024 · Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl · Dec 31, 2024 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:34 · Carter Schwartz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Pregame prior+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:46: Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +17.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:07: Caullin Lacy run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +15.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:42: Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +24.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:09: Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WASH win probability +15.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: Timeout Louisville, clock 00:09 — LOU win probability +21.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:11LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:34LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39LOU 4th & 8 at WASH 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:29WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:46WASH 4th & 7 at LOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:21LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.8%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:12LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:09WASH 4th & 7 at LOU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−1.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:38LOU 4th & 1 at WASH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−4.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:06WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:59WASH 4th & 23 at LOU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:00LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:45LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:09WASH 4th & 1 at LOU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−28.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−25.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:15LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:09WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:10WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:34LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:51WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:46LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:07LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:42WASH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−1.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:09WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 7.7 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.7%−7.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4847% → 46%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.3%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
53.4%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
53.5%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
53.6%
Carter Schwartz punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2INT TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5354% → 53%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+3
53.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 20Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
53.6%
Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 17Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
53.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-21
52.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass intercepted Tahveon Nicholson return for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3953% → 52%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
52.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
52.2%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
51.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 53 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5248% → 48%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
52.3%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
52.3%
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 22Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
52.0%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
52.3%
Carter Schwartz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:2452% → 55%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.9%
Jordan Washington run for 5 yds to the WASH 48Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+12
51.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
55.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 40 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2846% → 47%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
54.1%
Harrison Bailey run for 13 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
53.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+14
53.9%
Duke Watson run for 14 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
52.6%
Caullin Lacy run for 2 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
52.6%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
52.8%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
53.5%
Carter Schwartz punt for 41 yds, downed at the WASH 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0154% → 53%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
53.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the WASH 7Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+2
53.8%
Adam Mohammed run for 2 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 9
-1
53.4%
Demond Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 8Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+25
53.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 49 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 25 yds to the WASH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:4548% → 54%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
52.1%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
51.9%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+24
52.0%
Isaac Brown run for 24 yds to the WASH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
51.2%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 4Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
51.2%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (Trevonte Sylvester) to the WASH 9Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:3448% → 47%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
48.4%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WASH 36Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
49.2%
Adam Mohammed run for 1 yd to the WASH 37Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+11
48.5%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the WASH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
49.2%
Demond Williams Jr. run for no gain to the WASH 48Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-6
48.8%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 6 yards to the WASH 42Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+9
46.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 9 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
47.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1754% → 56%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
45.7%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
46.4%
Duke Watson run for 5 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+7
45.5%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.9%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
43.5%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 46Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
43.4%
Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
43.7%
Duke Watson run for no gain to the LOU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
58.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 49 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:2448% → 61%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
52.4%
Isaac Brown run for 26 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
50.2%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
50.0%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+17
50.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Mark Redman for 17 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
48.6%
Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
48.2%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+28
38.9%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 28 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4242% → 59%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
42.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 14 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
43.0%
Washington Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jeremiah Hunter) to the WASH 31Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+34
40.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 34 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
44.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the LOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
46.5%
Adam Mohammed run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 26Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+10
46.1%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the LOU 16Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
44.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the LOU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
46.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
46.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 6 yds to the LOU 7Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
59.4%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3249% → 48%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.2%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
51.7%
Duke Watson run for 4 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+1
50.7%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Duke Watson for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
52.3%
Carter Schwartz punt for 43 yds , Denzel Boston returns for no gain to the WASH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
56.5%
Jordan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:4856% → 57%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 12 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
57.5%
Demond Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 35Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+9
56.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 9 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+11
58.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
59.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 1 yd to the LOU 44Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
59.7%
Adam Mohammed run for 4 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
59.4%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Drew Azzopardi) to the LOU 45Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+3
57.8%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
56.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 5:1747% → 70%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
53.5%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
53.2%
Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
50.7%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 19 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
49.4%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
47.7%
Duke Watson run for no gain to the WASH 35Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
49.7%
Harrison Bailey run for 4 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+11
51.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Duane Martin for 11 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
47.4%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the WASH 19Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-2
47.3%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 21Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+21
30.4%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3836% → 35%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the WASH 25Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.9%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
37.1%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 33Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
34.7%
Jack McCallister punt for 36 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 7 yds to the LOU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:5271% → 87%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+54
29.2%
Duke Watson run for 54 yds to the WASH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
13.4%
Caullin Lacy run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:0717% → 17%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
17.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 42 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
20.2%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Thor Griffith for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-6
18.6%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Jordan Guerad for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+11
17.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Adam Mohammed for 11 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 31
-15
17.7%
Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Giles Jackson) to the LOU 46Similar
Q4 14:59
4TH & 23
OPP 46
0
16.5%
Jack McCallister punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:5386% → 92%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
13.9%
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 20Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+3
11.9%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
11.3%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
10.8%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+12
11.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
9.5%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 3 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
8.9%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-2
8.5%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 43Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
8.5%
Carter Schwartz punt for 54 yds, downed at the WASH 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22TD
14 plays · 97 yds · 6:0810% → 29%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
9.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Audric Harris for 8 yds to the WASH 11Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+4
8.3%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the WASH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
7.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 3 yds to the WASH 18Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
6.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds to the WASH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
5.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 8 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
5.6%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the WASH 40Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
5.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 3 yds to the WASH 43Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
5.7%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
50
0
5.1%
Adam Mohammed run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
50
+19
3.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Rashid Williams for 19 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
28.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5488% → 89%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.4%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
10.1%
Duke Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 30Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
10.7%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
11.0%
Carter Schwartz punt for 45 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 13 yds to the WASH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24TD
17 plays · 62 yds · 2:2617% → 28%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
17.1%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+14
15.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 14 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
17.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for no gain to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+33
15.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 33 yds to the LOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
20.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 4 yds to the LOU 4Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
17.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
14.8%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Rene Konga for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 10Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
10.6%
(00:54) WILLIAMS JR., Demond pass to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Jeremiah thrown to the LOU0, clock 00:48. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on MOSBY, Rae'Mon enforced 8 yards to the LOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
16.9%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Stanquan Clark and M.J. Griffin for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 4Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
14.5%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 1Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.1%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
6.8%
(00:02) [SG] Kneel down by BAILEY, Harrison at LOU20 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:42
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+24.4
TD · Q4 0:09
Timeout Louisville, clock 00:09
-21.6
TD · Q3 4:46
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com