ARDLINETry the model
LOU

Louisville 35 at Washington 34

WASH
2024 · Week 1 · Dec 31, 2024 · Sun Bowl
Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDKEY PLAY
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 14:59
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24
0.0
Q1 14:25
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the LOU 30
-0.6
Q1 13:47
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the LOU 34
0.0
Q1 13:11
Carter Schwartz punt for 44 yds
0.0
Q1 13:08
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 20
+3.7
Q1 13:07
Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 17
0.0
Q1 12:30
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 12:15
Demond Williams Jr. pass intercepted Tahveon Nicholson return for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-16.1
Q1 12:12
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 27
-1.8
Q1 11:41
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 30
0.0
Q1 11:13
Demond Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the WASH 32
0.0
Q1 10:33
Jack McCallister punt for 53 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 15
0.0
Q1 10:27
Timeout Washington, clock 10:27
-2.5
Q1 10:26
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 10:22
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 22
0.0
Q1 9:41
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 9:34
Carter Schwartz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 43
0.0
Q1 9:33
Jordan Washington run for 5 yds to the WASH 48
+5.1
Q1 8:57
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q1 8:09
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 40 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+17.9
Q1 8:07
Harrison Bailey run for 13 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down
-8.2
Q1 7:29
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the LOU 40
-0.9
Q1 7:08
Duke Watson run for 14 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:29
Caullin Lacy run for 2 yds to the WASH 44
-1.7
Q1 5:52
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 5:46
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 5:39
Carter Schwartz punt for 41 yds, downed at the WASH 3
+0.3
Q1 5:30
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the WASH 7
+5.6
Q1 4:51
Adam Mohammed run for 2 yds to the WASH 9
0.0
Q1 4:16
Demond Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 8
0.0
Q1 3:29
Jack McCallister punt for 49 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 25 yds to the WASH 32
-0.3
Q1 3:12
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the WASH 30
-6.1
Q1 2:39
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the WASH 27
0.0
Q1 2:02
Isaac Brown run for 24 yds to the WASH 3 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:24
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 4
0.0
Q1 0:45
Louisville Penalty, False Start (Trevonte Sylvester) to the WASH 9
0.0
Q1 0:27
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-14.4
Q1 0:20
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WASH 36
+6.0
Q2 14:59
Adam Mohammed run for 1 yd to the WASH 37
-0.1
Q2 14:20
Demond Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the WASH 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:49
Demond Williams Jr. run for no gain to the WASH 48
+1.2
Q2 13:12
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 6 yards to the WASH 42
0.0
Q2 12:30
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 9 yds to the LOU 49
-0.8
Q2 11:46
Jack McCallister punt for 21 yds
+0.9
Q2 11:39
Timeout Washington, clock 11:39
-6.0
Q2 11:38
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 11:32
Duke Watson run for 5 yds to the LOU 33
0.0
Q2 10:47
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 10:05
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 45
-2.2
Q2 9:44
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 46
0.0
Q2 9:04
Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the LOU 49
0.0
Q2 8:21
Duke Watson run for no gain to the LOU 49
+0.3
Q2 8:10
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 49 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+25.5
Q2 7:58
Isaac Brown run for 26 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down
-9.8
Q2 7:31
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 49
-2.0
Q2 6:53
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 6:44
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Mark Redman for 17 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:06
Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the WASH 31
-0.8
Q2 5:24
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the WASH 28
+0.1
Q2 4:34
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 28 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-15.0
Q2 4:33
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the WASH 32
+5.8
Q2 4:01
Jonah Coleman run for 14 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:16
Washington Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jeremiah Hunter) to the WASH 31
+0.6
Q2 2:57
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 34 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q2 2:15
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the LOU 24 for a 1ST down
+2.6
Q2 2:06
Timeout Washington, clock 02:06
-1.7
Q2 2:00
Adam Mohammed run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 26
0.0
Q2 1:27
Demond Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the LOU 16
0.0
Q2 1:20
Timeout Washington, clock 01:20
-0.2
Q2 1:19
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the LOU 13 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:06
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete
+0.2
Q2 1:03
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 6 yds to the LOU 7
0.0
Q2 0:56
Timeout Washington, clock 00:56
+3.0
Q2 0:51
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+17.4
Q2 0:44
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
-9.3
Q2 0:40
Duke Watson run for 4 yds to the LOU 40
0.0
Q2 0:18
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Duke Watson for 1 yd to the LOU 41
-1.1
Q2 0:12
Carter Schwartz punt for 43 yds , Denzel Boston returns for no gain to the WASH 16
0.0
Q2 0:04
Jordan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 14
+10.2
Q3 14:57
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 12 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST down
-1.6
Q3 14:27
Demond Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 35
+0.3
Q3 13:51
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 9 yds to the WASH 44
-0.3
Q3 13:19
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q3 12:46
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 1 yd to the LOU 44
+1.3
Q3 12:02
Adam Mohammed run for 4 yds to the LOU 40
0.0
Q3 11:18
Washington Penalty, False Start (Drew Azzopardi) to the LOU 45
+0.1
Q3 10:55
Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 42
-0.4
Q3 10:09
Jack McCallister punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 13
0.0
Q3 10:03
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST down
-8.3
Q3 9:37
Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:03
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 19 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down
-1.4
Q3 8:36
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the WASH 35
-1.2
Q3 8:00
Duke Watson run for no gain to the WASH 35
0.0
Q3 7:26
Harrison Bailey run for 4 yds to the WASH 31
0.0
Q3 6:38
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Duane Martin for 11 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q3 6:12
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the WASH 19
-0.8
Q3 5:31
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 21
0.0
Q3 4:46
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-19.5
Q3 4:44
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the WASH 25
+8.7
Q3 4:11
Demond Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the WASH 34
0.0
Q3 3:49
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 33
-2.7
Q3 3:06
Jack McCallister punt for 36 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 7 yds to the LOU 38
0.0
Q3 2:59
Duke Watson run for 54 yds to the WASH 8 for a 1ST down
-5.7
Q3 2:07
Caullin Lacy run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-10.6
Q3 2:06
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 42 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q3 1:25
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Thor Griffith for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 36
+1.2
Q3 0:43
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Jordan Guerad for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 42
0.0
Q3 0:00
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Adam Mohammed for 11 yds to the LOU 31
0.0
Q3 0:00
Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Giles Jackson) to the LOU 46
0.0
Q4 14:59
Jack McCallister punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 13
-0.1
Q4 14:53
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 20
-1.4
Q4 14:18
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 23 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q4 13:34
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 26
0.0
Q4 12:54
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
-1.4
Q4 12:46
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:07
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 3 yds to the LOU 41
0.0
Q4 11:33
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 45
0.0
Q4 10:42
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 43
0.0
Q4 10:00
Carter Schwartz punt for 54 yds, downed at the WASH 3
-0.6
Q4 9:52
Timeout Washington, clock 09:52
+1.2
Q4 9:50
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Audric Harris for 8 yds to the WASH 11
0.0
Q4 9:13
Demond Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the WASH 15 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q4 8:45
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 3 yds to the WASH 18
0.0
Q4 8:11
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds to the WASH 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 7:46
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 7:39
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds to the WASH 28
0.0
Q4 6:56
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 8 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:18
Demond Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the WASH 40
0.0
Q4 5:45
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 3 yds to the WASH 43
0.0
Q4 5:10
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:39
Adam Mohammed run for no gain to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 4:13
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Rashid Williams for 19 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q4 3:58
Timeout Washington, clock 03:58
+0.6
Q4 3:42
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+10.4
Q4 3:39
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds to the LOU 31
-7.8
Q4 3:00
Duke Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 30
-1.4
Q4 2:56
Timeout Washington, clock 02:56
0.0
Q4 2:56
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 2:45
Carter Schwartz punt for 45 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 13 yds to the WASH 38
+0.1
Q4 2:35
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WASH 45
+4.4
Q4 2:08
Jonah Coleman run for 14 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down
-1.5
Q4 2:05
Timeout Washington, clock 02:05
-2.3
Q4 1:58
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for no gain to the LOU 41
-0.3
Q4 1:31
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 33 yds to the LOU 8 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:17
Timeout Washington, clock 01:17
+1.7
Q4 1:15
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 4 yds to the LOU 4
0.0
Q4 1:10
Timeout Washington, clock 01:10
-0.7
Q4 1:09
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 0:57
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Rene Konga for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 10
0.0
Q4 0:54
(00:54) WILLIAMS JR., Demond pass to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Jeremiah thrown to the LOU0, clock 00:48. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on MOSBY, Rae'Mon enforced 8 yards to the LOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q4 0:51
Timeout Louisville, clock 00:51
+0.4
Q4 0:47
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Stanquan Clark and M.J. Griffin for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 4
0.0
Q4 0:21
Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 1
+0.2
Q4 0:17
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 0:09
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+13.6
Q4 0:09
Timeout Louisville, clock 00:09
-17.7
Q4 0:02
(00:02) [SG] Kneel down by BAILEY, Harrison at LOU20 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
+1.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:10
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 49 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+25.5
TD · Q3 4:46
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q1 8:09
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 40 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+17.9
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com