Try the model
TEX

Texas 39 at Arizona State 31

ASU
2024 · College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl · Jan 1, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2FGTDFGSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:57 · Kanyon Floyd punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 172Pregame prior−0.6Home team on offense+2.7Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Time remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:17: Quinn Ewers run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +10.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:00: Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds for a TD (C. Skattebo Run For Two-point Conversion) — ASU win probability +40.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Cam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick) — ASU win probability +23.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Matthew Golden 28 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +35.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Gunnar Helm 25 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Quinn Ewers Pass to Matthew Golden for Two-Point Conversion) — TEX win probability +42.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:59ASU 4th & 4 at TEX 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:08ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56ASU 4th & 2 at TEX 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44TEX 4th & 2 at ASU 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:54TEX 4th & 4 at ASU 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:09ASU 4th & 10 at TEX 34, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:38TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:58ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 21, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:11ASU 4th & 4 at TEX 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:24TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:43ASU 4th & 2 at TEX 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−5.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:41ASU 4th & 17 at TEX 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:31ASU 4th & 2 at TEX 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:39TEX 4th & 10 at ASU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−4.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−11.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:57ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00TEX 4th & 5 at ASU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−16.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−30.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:14TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:17TEX Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:31ASU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:00ASU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    37.1%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:5517% → 20%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
16.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
16.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 5 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
17.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 1 yd to the ASU 41Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
17.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Cam SkatteboSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+15
17.5%
Floyd, Kanyon punt 46 yards to the TEX13, Bolden, Silas return 2 yards to the TEX15, PENALTY TEX roughing the kicker (Blackwell Jr., Morice) 15 yards to the ASU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ASU.Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
17.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 47Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
18.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 7 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
18.4%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
18.7%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the TEX 43 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jordyn Tyson) to the TEX 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
19.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the TEX 27Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
19.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 4 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+1
19.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the TEX 22Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
20.2%
Carston Kieffer 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:2980% → 81%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+54
20.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 54 yds to the ASU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
18.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 23 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0019% → 18%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 2 yds to the ASU 27Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
19.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+75
18.0%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 48 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 75 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5518% → 18%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.3%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
18.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
18.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.1%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 40 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 5 yds to the TEX 30 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Warren Roberson) to the TEX 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0782% → 81%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
18.1%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 24Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+4
18.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
18.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+8
18.6%
Michael Kern punt for 49 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 8 yds to the ASU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:4218% → 19%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
18.4%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 31Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
18.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 4 yds to the ASU 35Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+8
17.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
18.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 14 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
19.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the TEX 36Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
19.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon MetayerSimilar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
19.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the TEX 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
19.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon MetayerSimilar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
19.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 6 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+2
19.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 2 yds to the TEX 25Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+1
19.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the TEX 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 5:5581% → 85%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
18.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
18.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
18.5%
Silas Bolden run for 5 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
17.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 2 yds to the TEX 40Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
17.5%
Arizona State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Myles Rowser) to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+24
17.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 24 yds to the ASU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
17.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the ASU 19Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
17.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the ASU 18Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
17.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Gunnar HelmSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+5
18.1%
Arizona State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ASU 13Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+5
17.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds to the ASU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
17.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 9Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
17.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the ASU 4Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
17.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
15.0%
Bert Auburn 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:3615% → 16%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.4%
Melquan Stovall run for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.2%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+23
15.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Troy Omeire for 23 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
16.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the TEX 40Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+6
16.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
16.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon MetayerSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
16.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
16.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon MetayerSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 10
OPP 34
-4
15.9%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the TEX 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2586% → 85%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
14.4%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 37Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
14.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to DeAndre Moore Jr.Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+6
15.2%
Quinn Ewers run for 6 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
15.0%
Michael Kern punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:1615% → 15%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
14.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 18Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
14.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 3 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
14.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+32
14.2%
Kanyon Floyd pass complete to Blazen Lono-Wong for 32 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
15.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 8 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
15.8%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the TEX 38Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
15.9%
Sam Leavitt run for 2 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
15.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 11 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
16.3%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 26Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+7
16.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 7 yds to the TEX 19Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
15.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
15.4%
Carston Kieffer 36 yd FG BLOCKEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
12.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd to the TEX 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2986% → 85%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
14.4%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Caleb McCullough for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 17Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
14.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-1
14.6%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Justin Wodtly and Clayton Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 22Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
14.8%
Michael Kern punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:3716% → 14%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
15.9%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+17
15.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Troy Omeire for 17 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
15.9%
Arizona State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Troy Omeire) to the ASU 42Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
15.6%
Sam Leavitt run for 28 yds to the TEX 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
16.3%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
16.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 10 yds to the TEX 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
16.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+14
16.2%
Cam Skattebo run for 14 yds to the TEX 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
16.0%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the TEX 6Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
16.0%
Sam Leavitt run for 4 yds to the TEX 2Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.8%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the TEX 2Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.0%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the TEX 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
15.2%
Shamari Simmons SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:4617% → 18%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
17.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 36Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
17.4%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
17.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
16.9%
Cam Skattebo run for 33 yds to the TEX 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
18.8%
Kyson Brown run for 6 yds to the TEX 16Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+1
18.5%
Kyson Brown run for 1 yd to the TEX 15Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+3
17.5%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the TEX 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
18.6%
Cam Skattebo run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 13Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-2
17.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 15Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 13
OPP 15
-4
15.6%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the TEX 19Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+36
18.1%
Carston Kieffer 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 5:1483% → 96%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
17.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+11
17.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 11 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
16.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
16.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
50
+8
15.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Juan Davis for 8 yds to the ASU 42Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
15.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the ASU 42Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
16.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
16.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
16.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+29
16.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 29 yds to the ASU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
15.3%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the ASU 6Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
14.4%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd to the ASU 5Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.6%
Quinn Ewers run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:396% → 13%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 2 yds to the ASU 27Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
5.4%
Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
5.4%
Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
5.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
50
0
5.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Cam SkatteboSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
50
0
5.5%
Kyson Brown run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 10
50
+8
5.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+42
15.1%
Cam Skattebo pass complete to Malik McClain for 42 yds for a TD (Sam Leavitt pass to Xavier Guillory for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-5
12.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ASU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4791% → 92%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
9.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
8.4%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Javan Robinson return for no gain to the ASU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 0:2613% → 64%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+71
12.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 62 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Michael Taaffe) to the TEX 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
18.7%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Kyson BrownSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 0
OPP 8
+6
21.2%
Texas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jahdae Barron) to the TEX 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.9%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds for a TD (C. Skattebo Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
64.2%
Texas Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the TEX 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 35 yds · 3:1655% → 54%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
45.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 7 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
42.2%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 37Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
45.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+16
42.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 16 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
41.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 44Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+14
43.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
38.2%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Cole Hutson) to the ASU 35Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
40.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
41.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+5
45.6%
Quinn Ewers run for 5 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
46.5%
Bert Auburn 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:3456% → 57%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
55.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 13 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
60.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
58.6%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (Malik McClain) to the ASU 38Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
56.0%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+10
53.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 10 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
57.0%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22MISSED FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 0:5251% → 55%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
48.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 13 yds to the TEX 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
47.0%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Hayden Conner) to the TEX 28Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+15
48.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 15 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
43.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 6 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+27
43.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 27 yds to the ASU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
38.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+7
39.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 7 yds to the ASU 18Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-1
40.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 19Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+38
45.5%
Bert Auburn 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
65.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the TEX 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
65.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
63.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 3 yds to the TEX 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
60.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the TEX 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
65.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TEX 20Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
64.9%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the TEX 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+1
63.9%
Kyson Brown run for 1 yd to the TEX 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+16
59.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 16 yds to the TEX 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.4%
Cam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 44%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
82.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+2
88.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 2 yds to the ASU 23Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
-5
91.0%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Kelvin Banks Jr.) to the ASU 28Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+28
55.9%
Matthew Golden 28 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
13.1%
Gunnar Helm 25 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Quinn Ewers Pass to Matthew Golden for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT2 0:00
Gunnar Helm 25 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Quinn Ewers Pass to Matthew Golden for Two-Point Conversion)
-42.8
TD · Q4 5:00
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds for a TD (C. Skattebo Run For Two-point Conversion)
+40.7
TD · OT 0:00
Matthew Golden 28 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
-35.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com