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PSU

Penn State 31 at Boise State 14

BOIS
2024 · College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl · Dec 31, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:06 · Riley Thompson punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Cooper Jones at the BOIS 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior−19.4Home team on offense−9.9Score differential−5.7Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:41: Tyler Crowe run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:03: Timeout Penn State, clock 00:03 — BOIS win probability +3.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:38: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 53 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +14.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 7:22: Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:54: Nicholas Singleton run for 58 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:41BOIS 4th & 2 at PSU 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:56BOIS 4th & 22 at BOIS 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:52BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:02PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 17, up 14
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:17PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−2.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:18BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:45PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00PSU 4th & 10 at BOIS 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:06PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:32PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 35, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:20BOIS 4th & 20 at PSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−6.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:37BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 24, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:15PSU 4th & 10 at BOIS 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:40PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:35PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:41BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:38BOIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:22PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:54PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:1416% → 19%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 25Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
16.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 12 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
17.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+24
17.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 24 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
17.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 2 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
18.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the PSU 33Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+5
18.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 5 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
18.7%
Jonah Dalmas 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:5582% → 82%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
18.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
18.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 6 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+9
19.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
19.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the BOIS 47Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
19.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
19.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 23 yds to the BOIS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
19.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the BOIS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
19.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
17.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:3019% → 19%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 23Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
18.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
18.5%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 5 yards to the BOIS 18Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 17
OWN 18
-5
18.4%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 13Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
18.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:0982% → 84%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
18.3%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+9
18.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
18.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+38
16.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:1617% → 17%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
16.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 7 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
16.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
17.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the PSU 49 Ashton Jeanty fumbled, recovered by PSU Zakee WheatleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0984% → 84%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
15.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 20 yds to the BOIS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
15.8%
Drew Allar run for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 35 Drew Allar fumbled, recovered by BOIS Seyi OladipoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4517% → 17%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
16.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 14 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
17.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+1
17.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
17.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
17.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3784% → 84%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
16.2%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the PSU 11Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+6
16.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the PSU 17Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
16.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+19
16.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 54 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 19 yds to the BOIS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 4:1218% → 23%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
17.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+18
17.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 18 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
17.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the PSU 22Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
17.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the PSU 19 Ashton Jeanty fumbled, recovered by BOIS Roger CarreonSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
17.1%
Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the PSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
17.4%
Jambres Dubar run for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 20Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+12
17.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 12 yds to the PSU 8Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
23.2%
Tyler Crowe run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 3:1379% → 78%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
20.3%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
21.0%
Boise State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ty Benefield) to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
19.9%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 32Similar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+5
20.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
20.2%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 32Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-12
20.9%
Drew Allar sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 12 yards to the PSU 20Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 27
OWN 20
+8
21.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 8 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
22.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5622% → 21%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
22.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
22.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
22.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
21.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:2479% → 80%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
21.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-6
20.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 33 Penn State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PSU 23Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+10
21.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 10 yds to the PSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
20.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 38 Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the PSU 23Similar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 20
OWN 23
0
20.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+17
20.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 17 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-3
19.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 37Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
20.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:3121% → 21%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
21.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
21.3%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Prince Strachan) to the BOIS 17Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+5
21.2%
Maddux Madsen run for 5 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
21.4%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Seyi Oladipo) to the BOIS 24Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
21.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 7 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
20.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14END OF HALF
13 plays · 41 yds · 0:5681% → 82%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
19.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
18.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 17 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
17.8%
Drew Allar sacked by Michael Callahan and Andrew Simpson for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 12
OPP 38
0
18.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
18.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+15
19.5%
Boise State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Davon Banks) to the BOIS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
17.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
17.5%
Drew Allar run for no gain to the BOIS 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
18.4%
Ryan Barker 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4981% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
19.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
20.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Cooper Jones at the BOIS 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:2819% → 33%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
18.9%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 12Similar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+3
18.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 3 yds to the BOIS 15Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+17
18.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 17 yds to the BOIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
19.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
19.1%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 30Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+17
18.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 17 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
33.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 53 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0670% → 82%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
28.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+23
29.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 23 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
27.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the BOIS 42Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+9
27.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-9
25.9%
Drew Allar sacked by Marco Notarainni and Max Stege for a loss of 9 yards to the BOIS 42Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 19
OPP 42
+5
28.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 5 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+25
29.4%
Drew Allar run for 15 yds to the BOIS 22 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ty Benefield) to the BOIS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
26.1%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Sal Wormley) to the BOIS 17Similar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+4
26.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the BOIS 13Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
26.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
18.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18INT
15 plays · 39 yds · 7:2119% → 18%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
19.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 24Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
18.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 4 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
17.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 9 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
18.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+12
19.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 12 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
20.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the PSU 43Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
20.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
19.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 6 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
21.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 7 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+7
21.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the PSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
21.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the PSU 20Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-15
21.3%
Madsen, Maddux pass complete to Strachan, Prince for 20 yards to the PSU0, PENALTY BOIS illegal use of hands (Schmidt, Hall) 15 yards to the PSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 24
OPP 35
-1
20.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 36Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 25
OPP 36
-43
18.4%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Zakee Wheatley return for 28 yds to the PSU 41 Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Dani Dennis-Sutton) to the PSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0882% → 82%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
17.6%
Drew Allar run for 5 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
17.1%
Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
17.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
18.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cooper Jones at the BOIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:0017% → 13%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-11
16.7%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Jaylen Reed for a loss of 11 yards to the BOIS 13 Boise State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Maddux Madsen) to the BOIS 13Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 21
OWN 13
0
16.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 21
OWN 13
+26
15.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 26 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
17.5%
Penn State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
19.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
18.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 13 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
20.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 10 yds to the PSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
20.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the PSU 24Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+13
17.9%
Maddux Madsen run for 13 yds to the PSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
17.1%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Amin Vanover for a loss of 10 yards to the PSU 21Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 20
OPP 21
0
16.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 20
OPP 21
0
14.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 20
OPP 21
+38
12.7%
Jonah Dalmas 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 4:2187% → 97%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
12.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 22Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
12.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 12 yds to the PSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
11.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-5
10.3%
Drew Allar sacked by Alexander Teubner for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 36Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+9
11.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
9.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 42Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+58
3.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 58 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22INT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:123% → 3%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
2.8%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 6Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+15
2.7%
Penn State Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dani Dennis-Sutton) to the BOIS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
2.8%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Daylon Metoyer) to the BOIS 16Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+10
2.8%
Penn State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (A.J. Harris) to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
2.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for no gain to the BOIS 26Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
2.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-2
2.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 24Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
2.6%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Zion Tracy return for no gain to the BOIS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:1698% → 98%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
2.3%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the BOIS 47Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
2.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+3
2.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
2.1%
Penn State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 47Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
2.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cooper Jones at the BOIS 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24INT
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:441% → 1%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
1.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BOIS 13Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+3
1.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 16Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+10
1.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 10 yds to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the BOIS 26Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
0.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-5
0.8%
Boise State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BOIS 23Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+45
0.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Camper for 45 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
1.1%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the PSU 31Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
1.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 4 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+9
1.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 9 yds to the PSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
1.1%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Tyrece Mills return for 2 yds to the PSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:38
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 53 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q3 7:22
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q2 8:41
Tyler Crowe run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com