Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 46 at Toledo 48

TOL
2024 · GameAbove Sports Bowl · Dec 26, 2024 · Ford Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3OT4OT5OT6TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.8TOL 33.6%Ben Sauls 57 Yd Field GoalAWAY 12 - HOME 6 · Q2 11:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:12 · Ben Sauls 57 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore differentialOffense timeouts
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3OT4OT5OT6Play 56Pregame prior−13.3Home team on offense−3.7Garbage-time factor−1.1Time remaining+0.3Score differential−1.4Offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:55: Jake Overman 11 Yd pass from Julian Dugger (David Lynch Pass to Gavin Bartholomew for Two-Point Conversion) — PITT win probability +21.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 1:45: Dylan Cunanan 51 Yd Field Goal — TOL win probability +18.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Tucker Gleason 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick) — TOL win probability +36.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · OT2 0:00: Ben Sauls 19 Yd Field Goal — PITT win probability +26.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT3 0:00: Julian Dugger Pass to Kenny Johnson for Two-Point Conversion — PITT win probability +36.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:42TOL 4th & 2 at PITT 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:28PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:31TOL 4th & 15 at PITT 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:12PITT 4th & 15 at TOL 39, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    60.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:08TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:44PITT 4th & 3 at midfield, up 6
    Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:01PITT 4th & 18 at PITT 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:59TOL 4th & 2 at PITT 49, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−2.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:42TOL 4th & 1 at PITT 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−3.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−10.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:23PITT 4th & 12 at TOL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−3.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−13.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:22TOL 4th & 14 at TOL 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:39PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:51TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.3%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:45TOL 4th & 10 at PITT 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−8.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−15.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 49, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%−3.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:42TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:38TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:24TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:55PITT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    48.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:11PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:49TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1831% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
31.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 31 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
31.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 2 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
31.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+9
32.0%
Gleason, Tucker pass incomplete to Newton, Jerjuan, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Lynum, Tamon) 9 yards to the PITTSBURGH33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOL.Similar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
32.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 31 yds to the PITT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
32.3%
Connor Walendzak run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 5Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.6%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the PITT 5Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
32.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the PITT 2Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.9%
Anthony Torres 2 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan PAT blocked)Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 0
OPP 3
0
33.4%
Kyle Louis Defensive PAT ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:1467% → 65%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.3%
David Lynch pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
33.3%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
33.6%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
33.6%
David Lynch pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
33.9%
David Lynch pass complete to Desmond Reid for 3 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
34.2%
David Lynch pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-2
34.3%
David Lynch sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 47Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
34.9%
David Lynch pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
35.4%
Caleb Junko punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:5735% → 37%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
34.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 20Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
35.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the TOL 25Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+29
35.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 29 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
36.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
36.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds to the PITT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
37.3%
Sevaughn Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 35Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-3
37.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 38Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+4
37.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 4 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 10
OPP 34
-5
37.2%
Toledo Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PITT 39Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 15
OPP 39
+18
36.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Desmond Reid at the PITT 6 Toledo Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Avery Smith) to the PITT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:3562% → 66%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
37.6%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the PITT 22Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+17
37.8%
Desmond Reid run for 17 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
37.3%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the PITT 40Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
37.7%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
37.5%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
37.1%
David Lynch pass complete to Juelz Goff for 9 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+10
37.2%
David Lynch pass complete to Juelz Goff for 10 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
37.1%
David Lynch pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 16 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
37.2%
Julian Dugger run for 8 yds to the TOL 6Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
37.6%
Julian Dugger run for 3 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.8%
Desmond Reid 3 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5336% → 36%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 9 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
35.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Desmond Reid at the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:5164% → 66%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
35.6%
Desmond Reid run for 22 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
34.6%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
34.5%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
34.3%
David Lynch pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
34.4%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Terrence Enos Jr.) to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+1
35.2%
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the TOL 38Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 14
OPP 38
-1
36.1%
David Lynch pass complete to Desmond Reid for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 15
OPP 39
+57
33.6%
Ben Sauls 57 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0435% → 34%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 6 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
34.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 52 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 11 yds to the PITT 42 Toledo Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (K'Von Sherman) to the PITT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2468% → 68%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
32.1%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
31.9%
David Lynch pass complete to Juelz Goff for 13 yds to the TOL 40 Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Block (Gavin Bartholomew) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 3
50
0
31.3%
David Lynch pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 3
50
0
31.6%
David Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 3
50
0
32.4%
Caleb Junko punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 1:0634% → 45%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
34.2%
Connor Walendzak run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 6Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+27
33.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 27 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+67
45.3%
Junior Vandeross III 67 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
45.3%
Toledo Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Junior Vandeross III) to the TOL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-42
51.9%
Braden Awls 42 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:2347% → 43%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
52.9%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Avery Smith) to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
51.6%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-11
51.5%
David Lynch sacked by D'Andre Ragin for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 36Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
55.0%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the PITT 36Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+2
56.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 36 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 2 yds to the TOL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0256% → 59%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
55.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
56.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+6
57.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
58.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Zy'marion LangSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
58.4%
Sevaughn Clark run for 1 yd to the TOL 44Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+7
57.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 7 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
58.5%
Emilio Duran punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Desmond Reid at the PITT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2542% → 39%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
57.8%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+10
58.0%
Desmond Reid run for 10 yds to the PITT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
57.7%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
58.0%
David Lynch pass complete to Desmond Reid for no gain to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
59.9%
David Lynch pass incomplete to Cameron MonteiroSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+5
61.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 47 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 5 yds to the TOL 33 Toledo Penalty, Illegal Block (Dylan Hohler) to the TOL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:3460% → 61%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
59.9%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (Marcellus Crutchfield) to the TOL 15Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
59.6%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (Connor Jones) to the TOL 10Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+5
61.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the TOL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2540% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
60.1%
Desmond Reid run for 10 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
59.6%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
59.5%
David Lynch pass complete to Desmond Reid for 2 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
60.3%
David Lynch pass intercepted Jaden Dottin return for no gain to the TOL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4966% → 66%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
65.5%
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 6 yards to the TOL 37Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 16
OWN 37
0
63.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
63.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Connor WalendzakSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+15
61.6%
Duran, Emilio punt 46 yards to the PITTSBURGH17, Reid, Desmond return 0 yards to the PITTSBURGH17, PENALTY PITTSBURGH personal foul (Anderson, Jesse) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOL.Similar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
66.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
66.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the PITT 36Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
67.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+8
66.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
66.1%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the PITT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:4737% → 61%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
63.5%
Desmond Reid run for 7 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
61.8%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+9
61.9%
Julian Dugger run for 9 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
62.0%
Julian Dugger run for 5 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
61.8%
Julian Dugger run for no gain to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+14
62.6%
Kenny Johnson run for 14 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
60.5%
Julian Dugger pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+6
60.3%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the TOL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
60.6%
Julian Dugger run for 9 yds to the TOL 11Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
39.4%
Jake Overman 11 Yd pass from Julian Dugger (David Lynch Pass to Gavin Bartholomew for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
50.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 16 yds to the PITT 44 Tucker Gleason fumbled, forced by Brandon George, recovered by PITT Phillip O'Brien Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:1858% → 60%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.0%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the PITT 44Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+19
43.1%
Julian Dugger pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 19 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
41.3%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Zeke Blake) to the TOL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-12
39.8%
Julian Dugger sacked by Deshawn Holt for a loss of 12 yards to the TOL 29 Julian Dugger fumbled, forced by Deshawn Holt, recovered by PITT Jason Collier Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 22
OPP 29
+10
41.6%
Julian Dugger run for 10 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
42.5%
Julian Dugger pass incomplete to Zion Fowler-ElSimilar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
38.0%
Ben Sauls 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+15
39.7%
Toledo Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Andre Ragin) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20INT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:0841% → 40%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
40.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
42.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
43.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+11
40.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
45.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
45.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-26
40.4%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Cruce Brookins return for 26 yds to the TOL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:0469% → 83%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
30.9%
Desmond Reid run for 9 yds to the TOL 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
30.3%
Julian Dugger run for 2 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
30.3%
Julian Dugger run for 1 yd to the TOL 22Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+11
30.3%
Kenny Johnson run for 11 yds to the TOL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
30.2%
Julian Dugger sacked by Martez Poynter for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 16Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+16
17.1%
Raphael Williams Jr. 16 Yd pass from Julian Dugger (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4919% → 16%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
18.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
50
+6
21.1%
Sevaughn Clark run for 6 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
21.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 5 yards to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
18.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 9
OPP 49
-5
17.2%
Toledo Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+1
16.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 32 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 1 yd to the PITT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23INT TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:3383% → 73%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
17.3%
Julian Dugger pass complete to Tyreek Robinson for 3 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-5
15.5%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Tyreek Robinson) to the PITT 21Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
16.0%
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the PITT 21Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+20
14.9%
Julian Dugger run for 20 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
12.2%
Juelz Goff run for 10 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
11.7%
Julian Dugger pass complete to Tyreek Robinson for 4 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
11.6%
Julian Dugger pass incomplete to Juelz GoffSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-58
26.8%
Darius Alexander 58 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0470% → 72%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
30.4%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+9
27.4%
Julian Dugger run for 9 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
26.4%
Julian Dugger run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 8
50
-1
24.9%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+5
25.0%
Julian Dugger run for 5 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 4
OPP 46
-5
25.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
27.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:5434% → 56%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
33.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 8 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
36.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 8 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
35.6%
Gleason, Tucker pass incomplete to Torres, Anthony, PENALTY TOL holding (Jones Jr., Allen) 10 yards to the TOL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+14
33.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
38.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
34.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+27
33.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 27 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
40.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the PITT 33Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
42.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
37.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
56.1%
Dylan Cunanan 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26DOWNS
13 plays · 18 yds · 1:4551% → 48%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
49.1%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
49.2%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
48.7%
Julian Dugger run for 2 yds to the PITT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
48.2%
Julian Dugger pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
49.4%
Julian Dugger run for 17 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
43.4%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 47Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
47.6%
Julian Dugger pass incomplete to Jake OvermanSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+2
49.5%
Julian Dugger run for 2 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 49
-10
51.8%
Julian Dugger sacked by Daniel Bolden for a loss of 10 yards to the PITT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Julian Dugger pass incomplete to Desmond ReidSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.7%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the TOL 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+9
44.3%
Julian Dugger run for 9 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
41.1%
Julian Dugger pass complete to Desmond Reid for 11 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
41.2%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the TOL 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.9%
Julian Dugger 2 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
28.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Francis Brewu and Sean FitzSimmons for a loss of 8 yards to the PITT 33Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+15
20.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 15 yds to the PITT 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
25.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+6
23.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the PITT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
28.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the PITT 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+10
28.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the PITT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.7%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the PITT 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.6%
Tucker Gleason 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
65.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 10 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
65.6%
Tucker Gleason run for no gain to the PITT 15Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
65.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Daryl Barnett Jr.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
63.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
79.8%
Dylan Cunanan 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 30FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0029% → 52%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
71.4%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Terrence Enos Jr.) to the TOL 30Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+11
75.0%
Desmond Reid run for 11 yds to the TOL 19Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
71.4%
Kenny Johnson run for 3 yds to the TOL 16Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+13
74.9%
Juelz Goff run for 13 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
71.4%
Juelz Goff run for no gain to the TOL 3Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.4%
Gavin Bartholomew run for 2 yds to the TOL 1Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.9%
Gavin Bartholomew pass incomplete to Isaiah NealSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
48.4%
Ben Sauls 19 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 31TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
OT3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.3%
Julian Dugger Pass to Kenny Johnson for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
68.8%
Tucker Gleason Pass to Terrell Crosby Jr. for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 33Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.4%
Tucker Gleason Pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 34Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
OT4 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
37.5%
Julian Dugger Run for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 35Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
OT5 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
57.4%
Julian Dugger Pass to Gavin Bartholomew for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 36Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
OT5 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
95.5%
Tucker Gleason Pass to Jerjuan Newton for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 37Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
OT6 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.3%
Tucker Gleason Pass to Junior Vandeross III for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Tucker Gleason 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)
+36.9
TD · OT3 0:00
Julian Dugger Pass to Kenny Johnson for Two-Point Conversion
-36.1
FG · OT2 0:00
Ben Sauls 19 Yd Field Goal
-26.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com