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SMU

SMU 10 at Penn State 38

PSU
2024 · College Football Playoff First Round Game · Dec 21, 2024 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:28 · Riley Thompson punt for 31 yds, downed at the SMU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+24.4Blowout margin+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:08: Dominic DeLuca 23 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:09: Tony Rojas 59 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:00: Kaytron Allen 25 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:03: Nicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 10:59: Collin Rogers 28 Yd Field Goal — SMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:28PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:08SMU 4th & 1 at PSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:41SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:41PSU 4th & 13 at SMU 29, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59SMU 4th & 9 at PSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:32PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.7%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:17SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:59SMU 4th & 11 at PSU 11, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:13PSU 4th & 4 at SMU 23, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:25SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:41SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 21, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:46PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:46SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:08PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:09PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:00PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:03PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:56PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:31SMU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1575% → 75%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
75.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the PSU 30Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
74.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 7 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
74.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Liam CliffordSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
74.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 31 yds, downed at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:1225% → 26%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
74.6%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+18
74.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
74.4%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the PSU 43Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+15
74.2%
Jennings, Kevin pass incomplete to Smith, Key'Shawn, PENALTY PSU pass interference (Kimber, Jalen) 15 yards to the PSU28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
74.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the PSU 24Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
74.0%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
74.0%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the PSU 19Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
74.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:0474% → 73%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
74.3%
Tyler Warren run for 6 yds to the PSU 25Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
74.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+6
74.0%
Drew Allar run for 6 yds to the PSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
74.1%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 32Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+13
73.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 13 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
74.1%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 44Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
73.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
73.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
73.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3727% → 24%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.2%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-23
75.6%
Dominic DeLuca 23 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2125% → 24%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
75.4%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
75.0%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
75.0%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
75.6%
Isaac Pearson punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:3476% → 76%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
76.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 13 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
76.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
77.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 15 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
77.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
77.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-6
76.9%
Drew Allar sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 13
OPP 29
0
75.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7INT TD
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:1324% → 19%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
75.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-10
75.3%
Jennings, Kevin pass incomplete to Brinson, Romello, PENALTY SMU holding (Byrd, Savion) 10 yards to the SMU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+7
76.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+5
76.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
75.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
75.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 20 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
74.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the PSU 47Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 16
OPP 47
0
75.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 16
OPP 47
-59
81.4%
Tony Rojas 59 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0119% → 18%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
81.4%
Brashard Smith run for 16 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
80.7%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 11
50
+2
81.5%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
81.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
82.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1883% → 83%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
83.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 12Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
83.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+7
83.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 7 yds to the PSU 19Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
83.1%
Drew Allar run for no gain to the PSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0919% → 19%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
81.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the PSU 13Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+7
81.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the PSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
81.2%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 7Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-14
81.2%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Dominic DeLuca return for 14 yds to the PSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0284% → 93%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
83.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
50
-5
84.5%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Nick Dawkins) to the PSU 45Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
84.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+9
84.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 9 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+13
84.5%
Drew Allar run for 13 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
85.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+7
85.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+25
92.9%
Kaytron Allen 25 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:309% → 8%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
90.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
91.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+7
92.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 3
OWN 46
-8
92.1%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:4294% → 98%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
94.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 7 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+8
94.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
94.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
94.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+11
94.5%
Drew Allar run for 11 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
94.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Nicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:452% → 1%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
98.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
98.4%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton and Dominic DeLuca for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
98.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 20
OWN 26
0
98.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+12
98.6%
Isaac Pearson punt for 44 yds , Zion Tracy returns for 12 yds to the PSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
98.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 15 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:4711% → 3%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
90.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+35
98.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 20 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Amin Vanover) to the PSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
98.2%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the PSU 12Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+7
98.2%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the PSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.5%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the PSU 4Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
98.4%
SMU Penalty, False Start (LJ Johnson Jr.) to the PSU 9Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
98.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 3 yds to the PSU 6Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
98.6%
SMU Penalty, False Start (PJ Williams) to the PSU 11Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
97.0%
Collin Rogers 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2998% → 99%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
97.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 18 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
97.9%
Drew Allar sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte and Elijah Roberts for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+10
98.0%
Drew Allar sacked by Elijah Roberts and Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 44 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jared Harrison-Hunte) to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.0%
Tyler Warren pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
98.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
99.2%
Ryan Barker 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18MISSED FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 4:111% → 1%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 9 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-2
99.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
99.3%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+2
99.4%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.4%
Jennings, Kevin pass incomplete to Brinson, Romello, PENALTY PSU holding (Collins, Audavion) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
99.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
99.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 22 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 13 yds to the PSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
98.6%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Logan Parr) to the PSU 7Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q3 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-18
99.6%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 18 yards to the PSU 25Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 0
OPP 25
+42
99.5%
Collin Rogers 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:13100% → 100%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+17
99.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 17 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+6
99.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
99.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 18 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Kaytron Allen 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Stone Eby for 6 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for no gain to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+10
99.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 10 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Isaac Pearson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
99.8%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 38Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+1
99.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 39Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass intercepted Brandon Crossley return for no gain to the PSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-3
99.9%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-10
99.9%
Jennings, Kevin pass incomplete to Daniels Jr., Roderick, PENALTY SMU holding (Byrd, Savion) 10 yards to the SMU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 21
OWN 47
+15
99.9%
Jennings, Kevin pass incomplete to Smith, Brashard, PENALTY PSU roughing passer (Dennis-Sutton, Dani) 15 yards to the PSU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 7 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 28 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 9Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+1
99.9%
Corey Smith run for 1 yd to the PSU 10Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+9
99.9%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.9%
Corey Smith run for 7 yds to the PSU 26Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Quinton Martin Jr. run for no gain to the PSU 26Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-3
99.9%
Corey Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 23Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+14
99.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 44 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 14 yds to the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.9%
Key'Shawn Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 45 Key'Shawn Smith fumbled, recovered by SMU Ben SparksSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Keldric Luster pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Quinton Martin Jr. run for no gain to the PSU 15Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
100.0%
Corey Smith run for 1 yd to the PSU 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+7
100.0%
Quinton Martin Jr. run for 7 yds to the PSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:00
Kaytron Allen 25 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
+7.6
TD · Q2 13:09
Tony Rojas 59 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)
+4.4
TD · Q2 1:03
Nicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com