2024 · College Football Playoff First Round Game · Dec 21, 2024 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:09 · Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:26: Quintrevion Wisner run for 16 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +4.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:28: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 19 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +5.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:29: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jarvis Green for 25 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +8.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:43: Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 7 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +9.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:48: Jaydon Blue run for 77 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +8.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 2:43TEX 4th & 1 at CLEM 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.4%70% to convertField goal74.4%−1.091% to makePunt71.8%−3.6average punt
- Q2 14:53CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, tiedClose callPunted · 23.1% before the snapGo for it23.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:23CLEM 4th & 16 at TEX 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it18.5%−0.916% to convertField goal18.5%−0.823% to makePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q2 4:09TEX 4th & 1 at CLEM 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.8%71% to convertField goal85.3%−1.580% to makePunt81.5%−5.3average punt
- Q2 3:19CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.0%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%average punt
- Q2 1:33CLEM 4th & 5 at TEX 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snapGo for it13.7%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call13.8%84% to makePunt11.2%−2.6average punt
- Q3 8:10TEX 4th & 4 at CLEM 4, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call94.2%−0.393% to makePunt90.3%−4.2average punt
- Q3 5:34CLEM 4th & 15 at CLEM 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q3 4:34TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 22, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q3 0:55TEX 4th & 2 at CLEM 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%57% to convertField goal92.6%−1.442% to makePunt92.3%−1.7average punt
- Q4 11:43CLEM 4th & 6 at TEX 7, down 14Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.5%−0.832% to convertField goal8.3%91% to makePunt2.7%−5.5average punt
- Q4 7:24CLEM 4th & 1 at TEX 1, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%59% to convertField goal6.0%−1.294% to makePunt2.3%−4.9average punt
- Q4 1:43TEX 4th & 1 at CLEM 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%70% to convertField goal97.5%−0.634% to makePunt97.4%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:16CLEM 4th & 6 at TEX 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%39% to convertField goal3.2%−0.164% to makePunt1.9%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 8:14CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.3%97% to makeGo for two21.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:04TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.2%97% to makeGo for two77.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:49TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.1%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:26TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two86.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:28TEX Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:29CLEM Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.8%97% to makeGo for two6.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:43CLEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call13.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two13.3%45% to convert
- Q4 10:48TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two93.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:4120% → 24%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 2 yds to the CLEM 27Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
80.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 13 yds to the CLEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
80.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the CLEM 48Similar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
79.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 9 yds to the TEX 40Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
78.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
76.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 22 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0577% → 79%
Q1 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
76.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 6 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
76.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 13 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
76.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 13 yds to the CLEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
76.6%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the CLEM 48Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+10
75.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 10 yds to the CLEM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0624% → 24%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.5%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 5 yards to the CLEM 20Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
76.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 1 yd to the CLEM 21Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
76.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 13 yds to the CLEM 34Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
76.0%
Aidan Swanson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:5877% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1220% → 19%
TEXDrive 6TD7 plays · 87 yds · 2:5781% → 87%
CLEMDrive 7INT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2414% → 14%
Q2 5:54
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
86.3%
Cade Klubnik pass intercepted Colin Simmons return for a loss of 2 yards to the CLEM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3988% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9FUMBLE4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4514% → 13%
TEXDrive 10INT2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3188% → 88%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
88.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 36Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 16
OWN 36
-21
88.0%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted for a 1ST down R.J. Mickens return for 6 yds to the CLEM 42 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, Illegal Block (Tre Williams) to the CLEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11FG9 plays · 40 yds · 0:5914% → 16%
TEXDrive 12TD9 plays · 65 yds · 1:0186% → 92%
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
85.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 21 yds to the CLEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
87.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 7 yds to the CLEM 19Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+19
91.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 19 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 17 yds · 0:2310% → 7%
TEXDrive 14FG16 plays · 71 yds · 6:4790% → 96%
Q3 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
91.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 6 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
92.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 9 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
50
+14
93.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 14 yds to the CLEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
93.9%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the CLEM 40Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+15
94.0%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Golden, Matthew, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Terrell, Avieon) 15 yards to the CLEMSON24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEX.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:324% → 3%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 8 yds to the CLEM 33Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
96.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 9 yds to the CLEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-14
96.1%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Bill Norton for a loss of 14 yards to the CLEM 28 Cade Klubnik fumbled, forced by Bill Norton, recovered by CLEM Walker Parks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 24
OWN 28
+9
96.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 9 yds to the CLEM 37Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Aidan Swanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5597% → 97%
Q3 4:34
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+9
96.6%
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 9 yds to the CLEM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:003% → 11%
TEXDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 39 yds · 2:2792% → 94%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
92.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 16 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
92.6%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Golden, Matthew, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Terrell, Avieon) 15 yards to the CLEMSON44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEX.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD10 plays · 64 yds · 4:0810% → 18%
Q3 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
90.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 12 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+18
91.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 18 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
90.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 7 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+7
81.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 7 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD3 plays · 83 yds · 0:4487% → 95%
CLEMDrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 73 yds · 3:197% → 5%
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 6 yds to the CLEM 31Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+29
92.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 29 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+30
92.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 30 yds to the TEX 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 0
OPP 10
+5
90.7%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Moore, T.J., PENALTY TEX roughing passer (Simmons, Colin) 5 yards to the TEX5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FUMBLE16 plays · 55 yds · 5:3697% → 99%
Q4 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+15
96.6%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Wingo, Ryan, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Terrell, Avieon) 15 yards to the TEX16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEX.Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+10
97.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 10 yds to the TEX 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-3
98.6%
Arch Manning run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLEM 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TEX Arch ManningSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:43
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 7 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q4 10:48
Jaydon Blue run for 77 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q3 3:29
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jarvis Green for 25 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-8.1