ARDLINETry the model
B

Buffalo 26 at Liberty 7

L
2024 · Week 1 · Jan 4, 2025 · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
Win probability · L
modelL aheadB aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYSACKFGKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Julian Gray run for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 20
0.0
Q1 15:00
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 15:00
Ryan Burger run for 6 yds to the LIB 26
0.0
Q1 13:30
Max Morgan punt for 45 yds , Victor Snow returns for 8 yds to the BUF 37
-0.1
Q1 13:30
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 40
-2.5
Q1 13:30
Buffalo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUF 35
-0.9
Q1 13:30
C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the BUF 41
+1.1
Q1 13:30
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 35 yds to the LIB 24 for a 1ST down
-1.4
Q1 13:30
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the LIB 24
-1.2
Q1 13:30
HENDERSON, Al-Jay rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the LIB21 (JONES, A'Khori). PENALTY BUF Holding enforced 10 yards from the LIB24 to the LIB34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q1 13:30
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 13:30
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 10:30
Upton Bellenfant 52 yd FG GOOD
-3.6
Q1 10:30
Buffalo Penalty, Offsides (Victor Snow) to the LIB 30
+5.8
Q1 10:30
Vaughn Blue run for 6 yds to the LIB 36
0.0
Q1 10:30
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 34
+1.6
Q1 10:30
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 9:01
Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, downed at the BUF 33
+0.1
Q1 9:01
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Teylor Jackson and Mike Jarvis for a loss of 8 yards to the BUF 25
-6.1
Q1 9:01
C.J. Ogbonna run for 8 yds to the BUF 33
0.0
Q1 9:01
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 30 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:01
OGBONNA, C.J. pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Taji thrown to the LIB18. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on SWEENEY, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the LIB22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-2.0
Q1 9:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 23
0.0
Q1 9:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the LIB 21
0.0
Q1 9:01
Buffalo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LIB 26
0.0
Q1 9:01
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the LIB 25
0.0
Q1 5:37
Upton Bellenfant 43 yd FG GOOD
-8.7
Q1 5:37
Buffalo Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LIB 40 for a 1ST down
+6.4
Q1 5:37
Julian Gray run for no gain to the LIB 40
+2.0
Q1 5:37
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 5:37
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
-0.2
Q1 4:40
Max Morgan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 25
+0.2
Q1 4:40
Jack Shields run for 7 yds to the BUF 32
-7.3
Q1 4:40
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUF 34
0.0
Q1 4:40
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 32
-0.1
Q1 2:53
Ethan Duane punt for 68 yds for a touchback
+0.1
Q1 2:53
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
+5.6
Q1 2:53
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the LIB 23
0.0
Q1 2:53
Ryan Burger sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the LIB 19
0.0
Q1 1:42
Max Morgan punt for 38 yds, downed at the BUF 43
+0.1
Q1 1:42
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 44
-6.8
Q1 1:42
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:42
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
-0.1
Q1 1:42
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 28 yds to the LIB 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:42
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the LIB 3
0.0
Q1 0:15
Timeout Buffalo, clock 00:15
+0.3
Q1 0:15
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 4
0.0
Q1 0:00
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 2 yds to the LIB 2
0.0
Q2 14:56
Upton Bellenfant 20 yd FG GOOD
-3.6
Q2 14:51
Billy Lucas run for 55 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down
+2.0
Q2 14:51
Billy Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 31
+3.3
Q2 14:51
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the BUF 28
0.0
Q2 12:58
Ryan Burger run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 35 Ryan Burger fumbled, recovered by BUF Cornell Evans C. Evans return for 5 yds
-0.2
Q2 12:58
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 36
-4.2
Q2 12:58
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
-0.5
Q2 12:58
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 12 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:58
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
-0.6
Q2 12:58
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the LIB 48
0.0
Q2 10:01
Timeout Liberty, clock 10:01
+0.3
Q2 10:01
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 5 yds to the LIB 43
-0.2
Q2 10:01
C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 10:01
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
-0.5
Q2 10:01
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 10:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the LIB 38
0.0
Q2 8:29
Ethan Duane punt for 30 yds
+0.5
Q2 8:29
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 7
+3.2
Q2 8:29
Ryan Burger pass complete to Treon Sibley for 6 yds to the LIB 13
0.0
Q2 8:29
BURGER, Ryan pass up the middle incomplete intended for SMITH, Reese broken up by FUQUA, Marcus at the LIB26. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on FUQUA, Marcus enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the LIB26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q2 8:29
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 8:29
Julian Gray run for 1 yd to the LIB 27
0.0
Q2 8:29
Ryan Burger pass complete to Billy Lucas for 11 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:29
Julian Gray run for no gain to the LIB 38
+1.5
Q2 8:29
Ryan Burger run for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 33
0.0
Q2 8:29
Ryan Burger sacked by Shaun Dolac and Malin White for a loss of 9 yards to the LIB 24
-1.5
Q2 3:31
Max Morgan punt for 63 yds , Victor Snow returns for 28 yds to the BUF 41
-0.7
Q2 3:31
Messiah Burch run for a loss of 9 yards to the BUF 32
-4.0
Q2 3:31
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
+1.0
Q2 2:34
Timeout Liberty, clock 02:34
-0.4
Q2 2:34
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 37
+0.4
Q2 2:28
Ethan Duane punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Julian Gray at the LIB 35
-0.4
Q2 2:28
Ryan Burger run for 6 yds to the LIB 41
+4.6
Q2 2:00
Timeout Liberty, clock 02:00
+0.3
Q2 2:00
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the LIB 44
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
+0.7
Q2 2:00
Ryan Burger pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 2:00
Ryan Burger pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 18 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 2:00
Ryan Burger run for no gain to the BUF 34
+1.0
Q2 2:00
Ryan Burger pass complete to Treon Sibley for 5 yds to the BUF 29
0.0
Q2 0:13
Timeout Liberty, clock 00:13
-2.4
Q2 0:13
Ryan Burger sacked by Jacari Bennett for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 31
+0.3
Q2 0:07
Colin Karhu 49 yd FG MISSED
-0.3
Q2 0:00
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at BUF29 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
+0.6
Q3 15:00
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 1 yd to the BUF 26
-3.3
Q3 15:00
Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 15:00
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
-0.6
Q3 15:00
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 43
0.0
Q3 15:00
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q3 15:00
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 15:00
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 49
0.0
Q3 15:00
C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the LIB 45
0.0
Q3 12:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for 45 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
-10.1
Q3 11:52
Liberty Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ryan Burger) to the LIB 28
+0.9
Q3 11:52
Ryan Burger run for 57 yds to the BUF 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:52
Vaughn Blue run for 5 yds to the BUF 10
+1.8
Q3 11:52
Ryan Burger run for no gain to the BUF 10
0.0
Q3 9:56
Ryan Burger run for 10 yds Ryan Burger fumbled, recovered by BUF Daishon Folsom D. Folsom return for 0 yds
0.0
Q3 9:56
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 22
-2.3
Q3 9:56
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 29
0.0
Q3 9:56
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:56
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 40
0.0
Q3 9:56
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BUF 44
-0.3
Q3 9:56
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:56
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the LIB 49
0.0
Q3 9:56
Lamar Sperling run for 9 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:56
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 2 yds to the LIB 38
-0.2
Q3 9:56
Messiah Burch run for 4 yds to the LIB 34
0.0
Q3 9:56
Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the LIB 33
0.0
Q3 9:56
C.J. Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:56
Al-Jay Henderson run for 12 yds to the LIB 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:56
C.J. Ogbonna run for no gain to the LIB 16
0.0
Q3 0:38
Timeout Liberty, clock 00:38
-2.0
Q3 0:38
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the LIB 15
0.0
Q3 0:00
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the LIB 12
0.0
Q4 14:56
Upton Bellenfant 30 yd FG MISSED
0.0
Q4 14:56
Caden Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 19
+1.4
Q4 14:56
Nate Hampton pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 14:56
Nate Hampton pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 13:54
Max Morgan punt for 15 yds, downed at the LIB 34
-2.7
Q4 13:54
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the LIB 30
+0.6
Q4 13:54
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the LIB 27
0.0
Q4 13:54
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 12:28
Upton Bellenfant 45 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
Q4 12:28
Nate Hampton pass incomplete
+0.1
Q4 12:09
Nate Hampton pass intercepted Red Murdock return for 31 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
-1.1
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the LIB 29
0.0
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for 9 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for no gain to the LIB 38
+0.2
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for 9 yds to the LIB 47
0.0
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for no gain to the LIB 47
0.0
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:09
Nate Hampton pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 12:09
Nate Hampton run for 7 yds to the BUF 43
0.0
Q4 12:09
Nate Hampton pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 4 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 12:09
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the BUF 36
0.0
Q4 12:09
Nate Hampton pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 12:09
Nate Hampton pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 7:00
Nate Hampton pass complete to Reese Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+1.1
Q4 6:57
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
-0.6
Q4 6:57
Jacqez Barksdale run for 12 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:57
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the LIB 37
0.0
Q4 6:57
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the LIB 33
0.0
Q4 6:57
Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 3 yds to the LIB 30
0.0
Q4 6:57
James McNeil Jr. run for 13 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Liberty, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 2:00
James McNeil Jr. run for 2 yds to the LIB 15
0.0
Q4 2:00
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the LIB 14
0.0
Q4 2:00
Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 3 yds to the LIB 11
0.0
Q4 0:26
Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 10 yds to the LIB 1 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 0:00
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at LIB3 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for 45 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
-10.1
FG · Q1 5:37
Upton Bellenfant 43 yd FG GOOD
-8.7
KEY PLAY · Q1 4:40
Jack Shields run for 7 yds to the BUF 32
-7.3
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com