Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 26 at Liberty 7

LIB
2024 · Bahamas Bowl · Jan 4, 2025 · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at LIB3 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime per score still needed
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:01: Al-Jay Henderson run for 45 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +13.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:38: Timeout Liberty, clock 00:38 — BUF win probability +8.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:28: Upton Bellenfant 45 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:09: Nate Hampton pass intercepted Red Murdock return for 31 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +5.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:00: Nate Hampton pass complete to Reese Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +4.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 13:30LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30BUF 4th & 20 at LIB 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:01LIB 4th & 6 at LIB 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37BUF 4th & 13 at LIB 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:53BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:42LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:56BUF 4th & 2 at LIB 2, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:01BUF 4th & 1 at LIB 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:29BUF 4th & 8 at LIB 38, up 9
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:31LIB 4th & 24 at LIB 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:28BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 37, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:07LIB 4th & 7 at BUF 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:01BUF 4th & 1 at LIB 45, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−3.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:56BUF 4th & 3 at LIB 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−1.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:56BUF 4th & 6 at LIB 12, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−6.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:54LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 19, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:28BUF 4th & 3 at LIB 27, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−4.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:09LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 47, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:09LIB 4th & 2 at BUF 43, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:00LIB 4th & 7 at BUF 36, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:57BUF 4th & 2 at LIB 30, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.3
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:26BUF 4th & 4 at LIB 11, up 19
    Close callWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 0 of 1BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 12:01BUF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:09BUF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:00LIB Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3049% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.2%
Julian Gray run for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
49.2%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
49.2%
Ryan Burger run for 6 yds to the LIB 26Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+8
49.3%
Max Morgan punt for 45 yds , Victor Snow returns for 8 yds to the BUF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:0051% → 50%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
49.3%
Buffalo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUF 35Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
49.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+35
49.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 35 yds to the LIB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
49.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the LIB 24Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-10
49.2%
HENDERSON, Al-Jay rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the LIB21 (JONES, A'Khori). PENALTY BUF Holding enforced 10 yards from the LIB24 to the LIB34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 20
OPP 34
0
49.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 20
OPP 34
0
49.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+52
49.8%
Upton Bellenfant 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2950% → 49%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.6%
Buffalo Penalty, Offsides (Victor Snow) to the LIB 30Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
49.6%
Vaughn Blue run for 6 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-2
50.0%
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 34Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
49.5%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
49.4%
Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, downed at the BUF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:2450% → 51%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
49.7%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Teylor Jackson and Mike Jarvis for a loss of 8 yards to the BUF 25Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+8
49.9%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 8 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+30
50.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 30 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
49.2%
OGBONNA, C.J. pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Taji thrown to the LIB18. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on SWEENEY, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the LIB22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
49.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 23Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+2
49.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-5
49.3%
Buffalo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LIB 26Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+1
49.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the LIB 25Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+43
48.9%
Upton Bellenfant 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5749% → 48%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
48.5%
Buffalo Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
49.2%
Julian Gray run for no gain to the LIB 40Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
48.7%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
48.4%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
47.8%
Max Morgan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4752% → 52%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.7%
Jack Shields run for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
47.3%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
47.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
47.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1148% → 47%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.3%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.2%
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the LIB 23Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-4
47.8%
Ryan Burger sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the LIB 19Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
46.8%
Max Morgan punt for 38 yds, downed at the BUF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:4654% → 55%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
46.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 44Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+22
46.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
45.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+28
45.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 28 yds to the LIB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
45.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the LIB 3Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
45.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 4Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
45.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 2 yds to the LIB 2Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
44.7%
Upton Bellenfant 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:5345% → 45%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+55
44.6%
Billy Lucas run for 55 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
47.1%
Billy Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 31Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+3
46.9%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-2
45.3%
Ryan Burger run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 35 Ryan Burger fumbled, recovered by BUF Cornell Evans C. Evans return for 5 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 4:2956% → 58%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
44.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 36Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
44.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+12
44.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 12 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
43.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 8
50
+2
43.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the LIB 48Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
42.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 5 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
42.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
41.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
41.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+2
42.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
41.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:5840% → 36%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
40.0%
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 7Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+6
40.0%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Treon Sibley for 6 yds to the LIB 13Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+13
39.4%
BURGER, Ryan pass up the middle incomplete intended for SMITH, Reese broken up by FUQUA, Marcus at the LIB26. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on FUQUA, Marcus enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the LIB26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
40.6%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
40.3%
Julian Gray run for 1 yd to the LIB 27Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+11
39.5%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Billy Lucas for 11 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
41.3%
Julian Gray run for no gain to the LIB 38Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
41.2%
Ryan Burger run for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 33Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-9
39.5%
Ryan Burger sacked by Shaun Dolac and Malin White for a loss of 9 yards to the LIB 24Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 24
OWN 24
+28
36.3%
Max Morgan punt for 63 yds , Victor Snow returns for 28 yds to the BUF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0363% → 62%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
36.6%
Messiah Burch run for a loss of 9 yards to the BUF 32Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 19
OWN 32
0
38.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+5
38.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 37Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
38.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Julian Gray at the LIB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 2:2136% → 36%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
36.2%
Ryan Burger run for 6 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
36.6%
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
36.1%
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
36.8%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
36.5%
Ryan Burger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+18
35.6%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 18 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.0%
Ryan Burger run for no gain to the BUF 34Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
38.9%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Treon Sibley for 5 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-2
37.9%
Ryan Burger sacked by Jacari Bennett for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 31Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
36.3%
Colin Karhu 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
34.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at BUF29 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5965% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 1 yd to the BUF 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
35.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
34.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
34.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+3
34.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
33.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
33.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
34.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+45
20.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 45 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5624% → 25%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
24.0%
Liberty Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ryan Burger) to the LIB 28Similar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+57
23.5%
Ryan Burger run for 57 yds to the BUF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
27.0%
Vaughn Blue run for 5 yds to the BUF 10Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
27.0%
Ryan Burger run for no gain to the BUF 10Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
24.5%
Ryan Burger run for 10 yds Ryan Burger fumbled, recovered by BUF Daishon Folsom D. Folsom return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17MISSED FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 10:0081% → 90%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
19.0%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
19.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
19.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
18.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
18.0%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
18.2%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
17.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the LIB 49Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
17.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 9 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
17.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 2 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
17.7%
Messiah Burch run for 4 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+1
17.3%
Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the LIB 33Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+5
19.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
17.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 12 yds to the LIB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
17.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for no gain to the LIB 16Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
8.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the LIB 15Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+3
8.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the LIB 12Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
9.6%
Upton Bellenfant 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0214% → 12%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
14.3%
Caden Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 19Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
14.0%
Nate Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
13.9%
Nate Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
12.4%
Max Morgan punt for 15 yds, downed at the LIB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2692% → 96%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
8.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
8.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
8.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
4.0%
Upton Bellenfant 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:196% → 1%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.3%
Nate Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-31
0.5%
Nate Hampton pass intercepted Red Murdock return for 31 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:091% → 5%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.5%
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the LIB 29Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
0.5%
Caden Williams run for 9 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.6%
Caden Williams run for no gain to the LIB 38Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
0.5%
Caden Williams run for 9 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
0.6%
Caden Williams run for no gain to the LIB 47Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
0.5%
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.6%
Nate Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
0.6%
Caden Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 9
50
+7
0.5%
Nate Hampton run for 7 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+4
0.6%
Nate Hampton pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 4 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.6%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
0.6%
Nate Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
0.6%
Nate Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+36
4.9%
Nate Hampton pass complete to Reese Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:5798% → 99%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
2.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
50
+12
2.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 12 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
2.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the LIB 37Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
2.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+3
2.1%
Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 3 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+13
2.3%
James McNeil Jr. run for 13 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
0.8%
James McNeil Jr. run for 2 yds to the LIB 15Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+1
0.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the LIB 14Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+3
0.8%
Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 3 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+10
0.7%
Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 10 yds to the LIB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
0.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at LIB3 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for 45 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
-13.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:38
Timeout Liberty, clock 00:38
-8
TD · Q4 12:09
Nate Hampton pass intercepted Red Murdock return for 31 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com