2024 · Duke's Mayo Bowl · Jan 3, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreMINN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:08: Collin Schlee run for 3 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +4.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:18: Darius Taylor pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 10 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +8.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:13: Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 12 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +7.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:56: Darius Taylor run for 28 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +5.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:59: Dragan Kesich 44 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +5.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:33VT 4th & 5 at VT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it27.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.1%average punt
- Q1 11:44VT 4th & 12 at MINN 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snapGo for it27.9%−0.124% to convertField goal27.9%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call28.0%average punt
- Q1 10:45MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snapGo for it71.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.3%average punt
- Q1 8:39VT 4th & 1 at VT 41, tiedClose callPunted · 29.4% before the snapGo for it29.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:15VT 4th & 20 at VT 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it34.2%−1.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.8%average punt
- Q2 1:48VT 4th & 12 at VT 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snapGo for it25.3%−1.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q3 10:26MINN 4th & 5 at VT 46, up 11Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it79.1%41% to convertField goal77.6%−1.523% to makePuntTheir call78.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:19VT 4th & 17 at VT 23, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it17.5%−2.813% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q4 14:00MINN 4th & 1 at VT 22, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.5%71% to convertField goal80.5%−2.172% to makePunt74.0%−8.6average punt
- Q4 11:59MINN 4th & 16 at VT 26, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snapGo for it81.3%−2.215% to convertField goalTheir call83.5%64% to makePunt78.0%−5.5average punt
- Q4 8:51VT 4th & 7 at MINN 17, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%−1.635% to convertField goal9.0%80% to makePunt3.9%−5.1average punt
- Q4 4:24VT 4th & 14 at MINN 14, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 4.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−2.016% to convertField goal7.0%84% to makePunt2.9%−4.1average punt
- Q4 1:30MINN 4th & 1 at VT 43, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%70% to convertField goal97.1%−0.628% to makePunt97.1%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 0:08VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.0%97% to makeGo for two37.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:18MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:13MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:56MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2227% → 28%
Q1 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+30
27.8%
Peter Moore punt for 30 yds , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 40 Koi Perich fumbled, recovered by VT Jonathan PennixSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1628% → 29%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
28.4%
William Watson III sacked by Maverick Baranowski and Devon Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the MINN 46Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+6
28.6%
William Watson III pass complete to Ayden Greene for 6 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
28.7%
Peter Moore punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5071% → 71%
VTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5130% → 30%
MINNDrive 5MISSED FG11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1070% → 68%
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+15
30.6%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 15 yds to the VT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+26
30.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 26 yds to the VT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
30.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5232% → 41%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
33.5%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ayden Greene for 1 yd to the VT 34 Virginia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VT 24Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+67
34.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ayden Greene for 67 yds to the MINN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4361% → 67%
Q2 14:13
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+8
40.7%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the MINN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+35
41.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 35 yds to the VT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
33.3%
Darius Taylor pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 10 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · -10 yds · 0:4038% → 36%
MINNDrive 9TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:3264% → 75%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
35.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 9 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+20
34.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 20 yds to the VT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
33.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 4 yds to the VT 32Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
25.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 12 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 3:1228% → 26%
Q2 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+14
26.9%
William Watson III pass complete to Keylen Adams for 14 yds to the VT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
28.5%
William Watson III sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the VT 25Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 16
OWN 25
-10
27.7%
William Watson III sacked by Jack Henderson for a loss of 10 yards to the VT 15Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+9
26.6%
William Watson III pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 9 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+11
26.2%
Peter Moore punt for 40 yds , Koi Perich returns for 11 yds to the MINN 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD7 plays · 58 yds · 0:4076% → 83%
VTDrive 12END OF HALF7 plays · 38 yds · 0:5119% → 25%
MINNDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 4:2476% → 78%
VTDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 3:4121% → 19%
MINNDrive 15FG15 plays · 66 yds · 9:0179% → 91%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+26
21.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 26 yds to the MINN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+10
20.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 10 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
17.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 7 yds to the VT 38Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-3
15.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for a loss of 3 yards to the VT 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
15.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Donielle Hayes for 9 yds to the VT 22Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-9
14.1%
Max Brosmer sacked by Wilfried Pene for a loss of 9 yards to the VT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 58 yds · 2:4412% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17INT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1895% → 96%
VTDrive 18INT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:267% → 4%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
6.7%
William Watson III pass complete to Ayden Greene for 11 yds to the MINN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
6.2%
William Watson III sacked by Jack Henderson for a loss of 8 yards to the MINN 13 William Watson III fumbled, forced by Jack Henderson, recovered by VT Jeremiah Coney , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
-32
3.6%
William Watson III pass intercepted Za'Quan Bryan return for 32 yds to the MINN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19END OF GAME10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3097% → 99%
Q4 1:30
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+20
1.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 20 yds to the VT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:18
Darius Taylor pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 10 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 5:13
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 12 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 0:56
Darius Taylor run for 28 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
-5.9