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UNT

North Texas 28 at Texas State 30

TXST
2024 · SERVPRO First Responder Bowl · Jan 3, 2025 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:22 · Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 2 yds to the TXST 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+10.1Home team on offense+10.5Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Blowout margin+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:27: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 24 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +9.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:04: Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +9.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:20: Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +29.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 2:25: Lincoln Pare run for 73 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +18.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:49: Drew Mestemaker run for 70 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +23.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:17UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:58TXST 4th & 9 at UNT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45TXST 4th & 4 at UNT 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:02TXST 4th & 13 at UNT 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:00UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 41, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00TXST 4th & 7 at UNT 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:10TXST 4th & 2 at UNT 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−1.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:13UNT 4th & 11 at TXST 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:01TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 47, up 9
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:22UNT 4th & 3 at TXST 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:28TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.1%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:40TXST 4th & 4 at UNT 46, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−4.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:03UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 7, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:33UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54UNT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:27TXST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:04TXST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:20UNT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:25TXST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:49UNT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:3015% → 16%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
84.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-4
84.6%
Drew Mestemaker run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 17Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+14
84.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 14 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
84.4%
Shane Porter run for 2 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
84.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
84.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
84.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:5284% → 83%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
84.2%
Jaden Williams run for 9 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+7
84.1%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 7 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
84.1%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 10 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Konner FoxSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
83.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 4 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
83.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 8 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
83.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UNT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
83.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
83.6%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the UNT 16Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
83.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
83.4%
Mason Shipley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2517% → 19%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.4%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 20Similar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
83.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Makenzie McGill IISimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
83.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 6 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
83.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 17 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
82.7%
Drew Mestemaker run for 6 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
82.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
82.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
80.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 46 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:3781% → 81%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.1%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
80.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+70
80.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 70 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.2%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.0%
Deion Hankins run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-4
80.8%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the UNT 5Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
80.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the UNT 4Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
80.5%
Mason Shipley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:4120% → 27%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Kiefer Sibley for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
79.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Kiefer Sibley for 8 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
79.0%
Kiefer Sibley run for 16 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
78.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 1 yd to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-1
78.1%
Mestemaker, Drew pass incomplete to Sides, Landon, PENALTY NORTHTEXAS roughing passer 1 yards to the TEXSTATE47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHTEXAS. Harris, Justin ejected for targeting.Similar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
77.5%
Nick Rempert run for 6 yds to the TXST 25 North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 14
OPP 35
+27
77.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 27 yds to the TXST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
76.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the TXST 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UNT Drew MestemakerSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+16
72.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 16 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:2574% → 74%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+24
74.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 24 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
74.3%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Breylon Charles and Fatafehi Vailea II for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 44Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+14
73.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 14 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
73.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
73.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-3
73.3%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
71.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
74.0%
Mason Shipley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 2:5726% → 28%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.1%
Drew Mestemaker run for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
73.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 8 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
73.1%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+8
73.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 8 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
71.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+7
72.3%
Drew Mestemaker run for 7 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
71.4%
Wyatt Young run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 41Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
70.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Dalton CarnesSimilar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
71.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Dalton CarnesSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+2
72.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 39 yds , Beau Sparks returns for 2 yds to the TXST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:2271% → 80%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
70.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 16Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 16
OWN 16
-5
70.0%
McCloud, Jordan pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXSTATE offside 5 yards to the TEXSTATE11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+10
69.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 10 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
70.2%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
69.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 8 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+10
69.9%
Deion Hankins run for 10 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
69.9%
Deion Hankins run for 6 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+8
69.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
70.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 11 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
70.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
79.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 24 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9INT
12 plays · 60 yds · 2:1624% → 28%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.4%
Makenzie McGill II run for 8 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
75.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 4 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
75.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
75.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+10
75.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 10 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
73.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for 9 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
72.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 6 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
72.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 28 yds to the TXST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
71.2%
Drew Mestemaker run for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 15Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-16
72.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass intercepted Mannie Nunnery return for 16 yds to the TXST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:5677% → 77%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
76.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+13
76.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 13 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-12
78.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 3 yds to the UNT 49 Texas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Trenton Scott) to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 22
OWN 36
+11
77.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 11 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+4
77.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
77.0%
Lars Rau punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4877% → 87%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.7%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
76.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 14 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.8%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for no gain to the TXST 41Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
76.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 11 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
78.4%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 12
50
+5
76.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+8
77.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
77.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
77.5%
Pare, Lincoln rush for 6 yards to the NORTHTEXAS31, PENALTY TEXSTATE illegal shift 5 yards to the NORTHTEXAS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+12
76.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 12 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+1
77.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the UNT 29Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+12
75.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 12 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
77.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 16 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4715% → 14%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Kiefer Sibley run for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
85.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Kiefer Sibley for 5 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
85.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 22 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
83.6%
Miles Coleman run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 14
50
0
84.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 14
50
+3
85.3%
Shane Porter run for 3 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
86.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 3:0786% → 87%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+18
86.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 18 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
87.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
87.6%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+1
87.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the TXST 47Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
86.6%
Lars Rau punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Miles Coleman at the UNT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:2914% → 14%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+57
86.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 57 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
83.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Shane Porter for 3 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+4
82.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 4 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
84.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+2
85.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 2 yds to the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:1787% → 89%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
87.2%
North Texas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Damon Ward Jr.) to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
88.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 3 yds to the TXST 42Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
88.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Titus Lyons for 6 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
87.2%
Deion Hankins run for no gain to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
86.9%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
50
+6
88.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
89.3%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+12
88.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 12 yds to the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-14
88.9%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Evan Jackson return for 14 yds to the UNT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:2312% → 17%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
88.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 13 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
87.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
85.9%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Jo'Laison Landry for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 38Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+10
87.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 10 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
85.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 29 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
83.1%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Jordan Polk for a loss of 15 yards to the TXST 38 Drew Mestemaker fumbled, recovered by TXST Kalil Alexander , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3089% → 92%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
89.2%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ethan Wesloski) to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.9%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
89.7%
North Texas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Breylon Charles) to the UNT 38Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
91.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
92.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
92.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
93.0%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (Emeka Obigbo) to the UNT 35Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
92.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-7
92.4%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Fatafehi Vailea II for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 42 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by UNT Breylon Charles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:3110% → 42%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
89.7%
Mestemaker, Drew pass incomplete to Sides, Landon, PENALTY TEXSTATE pass interference (Mills, Chris) 15 yards to the TEXSTATE43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHTEXAS.Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+42
88.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 42 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for no gain to the TXST 1Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5576% → 94%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.0%
Texas State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TXST 20Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
75.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
93.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 73 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-15
93.8%
Texas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lincoln Pare) to the TXST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:257% → 30%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
93.4%
Kiefer Sibley run for 2 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+70
70.2%
Drew Mestemaker run for 70 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 1:0282% → 91%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
81.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 23 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
84.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
86.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+1
86.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the UNT 46Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
90.7%
David Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Miles Coleman at the UNT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22INT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3213% → 11%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
86.8%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 4Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+3
87.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 3 yds to the UNT 7Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
87.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 11
OWN 7
-17
88.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass intercepted Treylin Payne return for 17 yds to the UNT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -18 yds · 0:0397% → 96%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 0
OPP 6
-15
96.6%
Texas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UNT 21Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 21
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:20
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-29.7
TD · Q4 1:49
Drew Mestemaker run for 70 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-23.3
TD · Q4 2:25
Lincoln Pare run for 73 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com