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DUKE

Duke 20 at Ole Miss 52

MISS
2024 · TaxSlayer Gator Bowl · Jan 2, 2025 · EverBank Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:10 · Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+20.2Home team on offense+16.5Score differential+8.5Garbage-time factor+5.7Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:29: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +1.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:43: Caden Davis 28 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:54: Henry Belin IV pass complete to Javon Harvey for 16 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:52: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 21 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +6.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:18: Henry Belin IV pass intercepted Isaiah Hamilton return for 50 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:36MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51MISS 4th & 4 at DUKE 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12DUKE 4th & 1 at MISS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:31DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:43MISS 4th & 8 at DUKE 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:46DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:10MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:15DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:22DUKE 4th & 8 at MISS 26, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:09DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 41, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:28MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 12, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:37DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 38, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:07DUKE 4th & 6 at MISS 48, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 8:07MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:29MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:54DUKE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:52MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:18MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:20MISS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:56MISS Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:43DUKE Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:27MISS Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:07DUKE Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1INT
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:0289% → 87%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
88.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
88.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 3 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
88.3%
JJ Pegues run for 7 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
88.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
88.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+7
88.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 7 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+30
88.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 30 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
88.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 2 yds to the DUKE 14Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-1
87.9%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 15Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+5
87.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 5 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 4
OPP 10
-59
87.3%
Caden Davis pass intercepted Terry Moore return for 59 yds to the MISS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3313% → 13%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.8%
Jaquez Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
86.8%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
86.6%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
86.7%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5887% → 88%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
87.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
50
0
87.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
50
+18
87.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 18 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
88.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 32 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3412% → 12%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.7%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jake Taylor for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
87.6%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
87.7%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 2 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 38 yds, downed at the MISS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:5688% → 90%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
87.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Logan Diggs for 6 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
87.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
87.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 5 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
87.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 14 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
87.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+11
87.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
87.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 9 yds to the DUKE 18Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+1
87.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
87.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 8 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+8
87.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the DUKE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:3211% → 11%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
88.7%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 18 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eli Pancol) to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
88.6%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 21Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
88.7%
Henry Belin IV run for 8 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
88.6%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:5989% → 92%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
89.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
89.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 39Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-7
89.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Cameron Bergeron for a loss of 7 yards to the MISS 32Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+19
88.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 19 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
89.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+12
89.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+22
89.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 22 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
89.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 16Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+5
89.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 5 yds to the DUKE 11Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
89.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
91.8%
Caden Davis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:449% → 16%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.0%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
90.7%
Henry Belin IV run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
90.9%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jaquez MooreSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+12
90.8%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
50
0
89.9%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
50
+5
90.3%
Belin IV, Henry pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY MISS offside (Pegues, JJ) 5 yards to the MISS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
89.8%
Henry Belin IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+27
89.9%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 27 yds to the MISS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
84.2%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Javon Harvey for 16 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5786% → 94%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
85.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 15 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
86.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 13 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
86.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 20 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
86.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 5 yds to the DUKE 21Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
87.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the DUKE 20Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+4
86.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
87.1%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Reece McIntyre) to the DUKE 21Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+21
94.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 21 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 24 yds · 1:359% → 8%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
91.1%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.9%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
91.1%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jake Taylor for 6 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
90.7%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.3%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
90.7%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
91.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 41 yds, downed at the MISS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
92.7%
Domonique Thomas run for no gain to the MISS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:088% → 7%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.2%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
92.4%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jaquez Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 21Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 51 yds, downed at the MISS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3193% → 93%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
92.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-6
93.1%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Tyshon Reed and Alex Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 27Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
93.2%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14INT TD
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:467% → 3%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
92.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-1
92.7%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 33Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
93.0%
Henry Belin IV run for 3 yds to the DUKE 36Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+5
93.2%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jake Taylor for 5 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
92.9%
Henry Belin IV run for 2 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
93.0%
Henry Belin IV run for no gain to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-50
97.4%
Henry Belin IV pass intercepted Isaiah Hamilton return for 50 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:503% → 2%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
97.5%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 22 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
97.3%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
97.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
97.6%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+10
97.7%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 10 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.7%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Peyton JonesSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.7%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-2
97.9%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 26Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 8
OPP 26
0
98.1%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:5599% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+12
98.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 12 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+51
98.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 51 yds to the DUKE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
98.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 8Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
99.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 17 Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the MISS 12Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 14
OWN 12
-8
99.8%
Jaxson Dart sacked by David Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the MISS 4Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 22
OWN 4
+8
99.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the MISS 12Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 59 yds, downed at the DUKE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 5 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Antwane Wells Jr. run for 4 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+21
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 21 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 12 yds to the DUKE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:080% → 0%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Peyton Jones for 13 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 38Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Belin IV, Henry pass incomplete to Pancol, Eli, PENALTY MISS holding (Banks, TJ) 10 yards to the DUKE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Peyton Jones for 4 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Javon HarveySimilar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+15
100.0%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 15 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+7
100.0%
Peyton Jones run for 7 yds to the MISS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
100.0%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 21Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
100.0%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 1 yd to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 20 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Antwane Wells Jr. run for 4 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
100.0%
Logan Diggs run for 15 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
100.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-15
100.0%
Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 23
OWN 31
+69
100.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 69 yds for a TD (Mike Baker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
100.0%
Austin Acton run for 1 yd to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Jason Albritton run for 7 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+34
100.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Jordan Smart for 34 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:52
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 21 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 5:54
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Javon Harvey for 16 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q3 8:18
Henry Belin IV pass intercepted Isaiah Hamilton return for 50 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com