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BAY

Baylor 31 at LSU 44

LSU
2024 · Kinder's Texas Bowl · Dec 31, 2024 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:16 · Peyton Todd punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+3.0Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Pregame prior−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:46: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:41: Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +16.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Jack Stone kickoff for 60 yds , Zavion Thomas return for 95 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos PAT MISSED) — LSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Isaiah Hankins 23 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +11.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:21: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +13.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:53LSU 4th & 5 at BAY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:24BAY 4th & 15 at LSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:16LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:16BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 23, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:17BAY 4th & 10 at LSU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:18LSU 4th & 6 at BAY 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:11BAY 4th & 6 at LSU 9, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−10.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:01BAY 4th & 1 at LSU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−3.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−13.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:06BAY 4th & 2 at LSU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:46LSU 4th & 4 at BAY 26, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:46BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 39, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:09LSU 4th & 5 at BAY 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00BAY 4th & 5 at LSU 5, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:31LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:40LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:16LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:46LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:41BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:21BAY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:56LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:20BAY Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 6:2244% → 49%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
44.1%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
44.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 6 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
44.1%
Josh Williams run for 16 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
44.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
44.1%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+2
44.1%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+6
44.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 6 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
44.1%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the BAY 30Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
44.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 15 yds to the BAY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
44.1%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the BAY 15Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
44.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the BAY 10Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
48.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 10 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2INT TD
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5152% → 47%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.2%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
48.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 7 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
48.0%
Bryson Washington run for 11 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
47.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass complete short left to Presley,Hal caught at LSU44, for 8 yards to the LSU44 (Weeks,Whit) PENALTY BAY Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Lengyel,Ryan) 5 yards from BAY48 to BAY43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
48.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
48.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 15
OWN 43
-41
52.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Davhon Keys return for 41 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 3:1647% → 44%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.8%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
52.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 17 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
52.4%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
52.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short right to Cameron,Josh thrown to LSU45 PENALTY LSU Holding (Stamps,Ashton) 10 yards from BAY46 to LSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
52.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-4
52.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
52.8%
PENALTY BAY Delay Of Game 5 yards from LSU44 to LSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-4
52.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
52.8%
PENALTY BAY Delay Of Game 5 yards from LSU44 to LSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
56.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0857% → 58%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
57.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+4
57.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 4 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 7
OWN 16
-1
56.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
58.4%
Peyton Todd punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2243% → 49%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
50
+4
56.7%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+20
56.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 20 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
55.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
57.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+21
51.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 21 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3054% → 65%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
53.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
53.6%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+12
53.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 12 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
54.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 20 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
64.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 41 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5438% → 36%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
61.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
61.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
61.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 23Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+17
63.8%
Palmer Williams punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 42 , Zavion Thomas returns for 17 yds to the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:3067% → 81%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
66.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 14 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.5%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the BAY 1Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey'Dez GreenSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2922% → 20%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
78.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 35 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Gavin YatesSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
77.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
77.5%
PENALTY BAY False Start (Barrington,Campbell) 5 yards from LSU36 to LSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+1
78.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+1
78.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+1
80.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:5983% → 86%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.3%
PENALTY LSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
83.3%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+23
83.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 23 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
83.4%
Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
83.4%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
83.4%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
83.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
85.9%
Damian Ramos 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kyler JordanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:3716% → 34%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
83.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 13 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
83.7%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Paris Shand for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+15
84.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+8
83.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+8
83.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
82.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 35 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 1:2814% → 27%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 12 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
84.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 11 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
84.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+17
83.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 17 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
84.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
85.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 13 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
84.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
84.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 4 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+6
84.7%
Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short right to Jackson Jr.,Ketron thrown to LSU00 broken up by Alexander,Zy PENALTY LSU Roughing The Passer (Keys,Davhon) 6 yards from LSU12 to LSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+6
84.7%
Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short right to Jackson Jr.,Ketron thrown to LSU00 broken up by Alexander,Zy PENALTY LSU Roughing The Passer (Keys,Davhon) 6 yards from LSU12 to LSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
72.6%
Isaiah Hankins 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:4922% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
78.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 4 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+14
77.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 14 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
76.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
76.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+5
75.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
75.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
76.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+10
77.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 10 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
75.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
75.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-1
76.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 9Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 6
OPP 9
0
82.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:1686% → 88%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
86.0%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+7
86.2%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 7 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
87.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 33 yds Aaron Anderson fumbled, recovered by BAY Devyn BobbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:3416% → 30%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
84.1%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
84.0%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
83.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
50
0
83.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
50
+46
83.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 46 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4376% → 77%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
76.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 14 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
77.1%
PENALTY LSU Illegal Snap (Chester,DJ) 5 yards from LSU37 to LSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
76.3%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
76.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
76.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-17
76.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Garmon Randolph return for 17 yds to the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · -27 yds · 1:3128% → 24%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
72.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+5
73.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+36
75.9%
run for 36 yds to the BAY 47 fumbled, recovered by BAY Sawyer RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 3:0581% → 94%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
80.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 14 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
80.9%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the BAY 32Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
80.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+19
79.7%
Caden Durham run for 19 yds to the BAY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
80.9%
Caden Durham run for 7 yds to the BAY 6Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
84.1%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the BAY 4Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
93.8%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:427% → 6%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
93.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 10 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
92.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
92.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Presley,Hal thrown to BAY45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (Woodland,PJ) 11 yard from BAY34 to BAY45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
92.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
92.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
92.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
92.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
94.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:2096% → 98%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
95.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 21 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
95.7%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+3
95.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 3 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
98.3%
Damian Ramos 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:261% → 9%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 10 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 3 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+1
98.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 1 yd to the BAY 39Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+8
98.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 8 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
98.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 18 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
98.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 32 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22DOWNS
18 plays · 40 yds · 5:1195% → 99%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
95.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 17 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
95.6%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
97.0%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
97.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 1
50
-5
97.1%
PENALTY LSU False Start (Nussmeier,Garrett) 5 yards from LSU50 to LSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+15
97.6%
Ochsendorf,Blake punt 39 yards to the BAY16 Cameron,Josh return 84 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:27 PENALTY BAY Roughing The Kicker (Gifford,Micah) 15 yards from LSU45 to BAY40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.8%
Kaleb Jackson run for no gain to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
97.8%
Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+2
98.6%
Zavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
98.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short middle to Hawkins,Ashtyn thrown to LSU33, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (Woodland,PJ) 10 yards from LSU45 to LSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Presley,Hal thrown to LSU26 PENALTY BAY Holding offsetting LSU Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
98.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Gavin Yates for 12 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
98.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Gavin Yates for 19 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:28
Jack Stone kickoff for 60 yds , Zavion Thomas return for 95 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos PAT MISSED)
+18.5
TD · Q2 1:41
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q3 6:21
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com