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IOWA

Iowa 24 at Missouri 27

MIZ
2024 · TransPerfect Music City Bowl · Dec 30, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:17 · Rhys Dakin punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense−1.3Pregame prior+6.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:28: B. Cook pass to M. Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (B. Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:49: Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +11.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:49: Joshua Manning run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +23.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 10:10: Blake Craig 51 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +12.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:36: Blake Craig 56 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +14.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 7IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:21MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:17IOWA 4th & 7 at MIZ 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:39MIZ 4th & 10 at IOWA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:14MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:09IOWA 4th & 15 at MIZ 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:32MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:19IOWA 4th & 20 at MIZ 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−4.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−10.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:10MIZ 4th & 8 at IOWA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:57IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:36MIZ 4th & 15 at IOWA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    36% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:13IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 33, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:54MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.6 ptsPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:03IOWA 4th & 1 at MIZ 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−5.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−11.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:49IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:12MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:28MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:49IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:49MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3459% → 59%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
59.0%
Brady Cook run for 11 yds to the MIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
59.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
59.0%
COOK, Brady pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to JOHNSON, Marquis caught at the MIZ25 and advanced to the MIZ27 (HALL, TJ). PENALTY IOW Offsides on GRAVES, Aaron enforced 5 yards from the MIZ21 to the MIZ26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
59.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-2
59.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 27Similar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
58.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 4:3241% → 45%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
59.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the IOWA 32Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
59.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+29
59.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 29 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
58.7%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+7
58.7%
Brendan Sullivan run for 7 yds to the MIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
58.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jarriett Buie for 11 yds to the MIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
58.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jarriett Buie for 8 yds to the MIZ 6Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
55.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 5:3356% → 60%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
56.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 22 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
56.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 5 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
57.0%
Brady Cook run for 7 yds to the MIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
57.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 43Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+11
56.5%
Brady Cook run for 11 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+11
57.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 11 yds to the IOWA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
57.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 21 yds to the IOWA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
57.5%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the IOWA 12Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
57.5%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the IOWA 8Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
60.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3154% → 61%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Jordon Harris for 14 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
54.2%
Iowa Penalty, Personal Foul (Xavier Nwankpa) to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
55.2%
Marquis Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the IOWA 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+23
53.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 23 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
55.3%
Marquis Johnson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
55.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the IOWA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
61.4%
B. Cook pass to M. Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (B. Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0542% → 42%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
58.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jacob Gill for 14 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
57.8%
Jaziun Patterson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 41Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+11
56.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jarriett Buie for 11 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
56.5%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
56.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
56.5%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-5
57.6%
Iowa Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jarriett Buie) to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
57.8%
Rhys Dakin punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:3859% → 59%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
59.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the MIZ 12Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+11
59.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 11 yds to the MIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
59.4%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
59.8%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+11
59.1%
Brady Cook run for 11 yds to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
60.8%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 40Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+10
59.9%
Brady Cook run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 2
50
+2
60.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
61.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
60.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
58.7%
Luke Bauer punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 3:5044% → 62%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
56.4%
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds to the IOWA 16Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
56.3%
Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the IOWA 19Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
57.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Zach Ortwerth for no gain to the IOWA 23Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
55.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 4 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+9
56.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 9 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
54.1%
SULLIVAN, Brendan pass to the right incomplete intended for VANDER ZEE, Reece thrown to the IOW43. PENALTY MIZ Roughing the Passer on BEASLEY, Jeremiah enforced 15 yards from the IOW36 to the MIZ49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
51.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 8 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+38
50.9%
Kamari Moulton run for 38 yds to the MIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
49.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 10 fumbled, recovered by IOWA Brendan Sullivan B. Sullivan return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
49.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 9 yds to the MIZ 1Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:3544% → 46%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
44.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 18 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
46.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
45.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
44.3%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Marquis Johnson) to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
46.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
46.4%
Luke Bauer punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
41.3%
Jaziun Patterson run for 10 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4559% → 59%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
41.3%
Jaziun Patterson run for 6 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+21
40.3%
Jaziun Patterson run for 21 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
39.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 44Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+1
39.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 1 yd to the MIZ 43Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
39.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 10
OPP 43
-5
40.2%
DAKIN, Rhys punt 42 yards to the MIZ1 downed by ELKIN, Luke, clock 12:17. PENALTY Before the snap, IOW Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MIZ43 to the MIZ48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
41.2%
Rhys Dakin punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3742% → 39%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+21
41.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Daniel Blood for 21 yds to the MIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
42.4%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
42.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
41.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+16
39.3%
Luke Bauer punt for 54 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 16 yds to the IOWA 48 Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (Mitchell Walters) to the IOWA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 5:1363% → 69%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
37.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the IOWA 39 fumbled, recovered by IOWA Brendan Sullivan B. Sullivan return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+6
39.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
38.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jacob Gill for 12 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
36.5%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 4 yds to the MIZ 39Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+15
36.3%
SULLIVAN, Brendan pass to the right incomplete intended for BUIE, Jarriett broken up by FLAGG JR., Corey at the MIZ30. PENALTY MIZ Roughing the Passer on KELLY, Eddie enforced 15 yards from the MIZ39 to the MIZ24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
35.8%
Kamari Moulton run for 14 yds to the MIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
35.8%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the MIZ 9Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
35.8%
Brendan Sullivan run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 11Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-9
36.9%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the MIZ 20Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
30.9%
Drew Stevens 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3030% → 56%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
30.1%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
28.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Daniel Blood for 17 yds to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+44
32.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 44 yds to the IOWA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
35.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 12 yds to the IOWA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
32.7%
QB Keeper COOK, Brady rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the IOW0, TOUCHDOWN MIZ, score nullified by penalty, clock 02:38 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, MIZ Illegal Motion enforced 5 yards from the IOW2 to the IOW7. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
32.6%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the IOWA 4Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.9%
Joshua Manning run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:5355% → 60%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
45.2%
Jaziun Patterson run for 14 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
43.8%
Jaziun Patterson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
41.7%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
41.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the IOWA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
41.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the IOWA 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
41.1%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
40.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass intercepted Toriano Pride Jr. return for no gain to the MIZ 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4052% → 58%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-18
51.6%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 18 yards to the MIZ 28 Brady Cook fumbled, recovered by MIZ Nate Noel N. Noel return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 28
OWN 28
+8
46.7%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the MIZ 36Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 20
OWN 36
+16
45.4%
Iowa Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Quinn Schulte) to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
53.1%
Jamal Roberts run for 2 yds to the IOWA 34Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
48.5%
Marquis Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
45.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
58.4%
Blake Craig 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1347% → 45%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
52.7%
Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
50.0%
Kamari Moulton run for no gain to the IOWA 33Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
51.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 32Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
55.3%
Rhys Dakin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the MIZ 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2158% → 73%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
57.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tavorus Jones for 20 yds to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
62.0%
Tavorus Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 40Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
59.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 15 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
64.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Logan Muckey for 6 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
64.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
65.5%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Marquis Johnson) to the IOWA 39Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
61.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
59.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 15
OPP 39
+56
73.3%
Blake Craig 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2330% → 30%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Luke Lachey for 4 yds to the IOWA 29Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
68.0%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
70.4%
Rhys Dakin punt for 47 yds, downed at the MIZ 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1981% → 87%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
87.4%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
87.3%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Luke Bauer punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4118% → 17%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-13
82.5%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the IOWA 32Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 23
OWN 32
+19
85.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 19 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
80.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jacob Gill for 3 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
82.7%
Brendan Sullivan run for no gain to the MIZ 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:0394% → 96%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
93.6%
[SG] Kneel down by TEAM at MIZ45 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-1
96.4%
[SG] Kneel down by TEAM at MIZ44 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:49
Joshua Manning run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)
+23.2
FG · Q4 4:36
Blake Craig 56 yd FG GOOD
+14.1
FG · Q4 10:10
Blake Craig 51 yd FG GOOD
+12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com