2024 · Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl · Dec 28, 2024 · Yankee Stadium
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreBC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:03 · Brian Buschini punt for 47 yds, downed at the BC 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:39: Kwinten Ives 2 Yd Run (John Hohl PAT blocked) — NEB win probability +6.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:02: Emmett Johnson 13 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (John Hohl Kick) — NEB win probability +9.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:18: Jordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick) — BC win probability +25.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:11: Luca Lombardo kickoff for 61 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. return for 17 yds to the NEB 21 — NEB win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40: Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 15 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST down — NEB win probability +8.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 6:28BC 4th & 12 at NEB 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snapGo for it39.6%−0.222% to convertField goalTheir call39.9%66% to makePunt38.7%−1.2average punt
- Q2 8:08BC 4th & 14 at NEB 37, down 7Close callWent for it · 31.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.2%−0.619% to convertField goal31.8%40% to makePunt31.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:25BC 4th & 7 at NEB 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.1%37% to convertField goal31.9%−0.249% to makePunt30.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:39BC 4th & 1 at NEB 9, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.2%71% to convertField goal24.9%−1.289% to makePunt19.9%−6.2average punt
- Q3 13:27BC 4th & 8 at BC 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.4%−0.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.1%average punt
- Q3 11:25NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 45, up 11Close callWent for it · 78.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.8%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt79.1%average punt
- Q3 8:15NEB 4th & 5 at BC 5, up 11Close callWent for it · 81.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.4%−0.133% to convertField goal80.4%92% to makePunt73.8%−6.7average punt
- Q3 3:02NEB 4th & 3 at BC 13, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.2%50% to convertField goal83.7%−0.585% to makePunt78.7%−5.4average punt
- Q4 13:19BC 4th & 2 at NEB 2, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.0%48% to convertField goal4.4%−1.694% to makePunt-1.1%−7.1average punt
- Q4 9:03NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 17, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q4 4:22NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 31, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q4 2:00NEB 4th & 3 at BC 35, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.5%53% to convertField goal89.7%−1.845% to makePunt88.2%−3.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:56NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.4%97% to makeGo for two64.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:39NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:02NEB Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:11BC Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick6.6%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.7%45% to convert
- Q4 4:18BC Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.6%97% to makeGo for two12.8%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1INT6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5462% → 62%
Q1 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+29
62.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 29 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
62.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 14 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.4%
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted KP Price return for no gain to the BC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2MISSED FG11 plays · 68 yds · 5:3738% → 38%
Q1 11:00
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+50
62.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Turbo Richard for 50 yds to the NEB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
61.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 10 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
60.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 3 yds to the NEB 18Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-7
60.7%
Grayson James sacked by Ty Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the NEB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2462% → 68%
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
61.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Janiran Bonner for 9 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
61.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 12 yds to the NEB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
62.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 14 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+8
63.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 8 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
63.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 6 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+2
63.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 2 yds to the BC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4DOWNS13 plays · 40 yds · 6:2234% → 31%
Q2 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+4
66.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 4 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-8
65.5%
Grayson James sacked by Vincent Shavers Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 40 Grayson James fumbled, forced by Vincent Shavers Jr., recovered by BC Grayson James , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+5
66.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+22
67.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 22 yds to the NEB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-12
65.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 3 yds to the NEB 30 Boston College Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NEB 45Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+8
67.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Johnathan Montague Jr. for 8 yds to the NEB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5FUMBLE1 play · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
69.2%
Emmett Johnson run for 7 yds to the NEB 36 Emmett Johnson fumbled, forced by Omar Thornton, recovered by BC Josiah GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6DOWNS5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0534% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD8 plays · 67 yds · 2:1470% → 79%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
69.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 13 yds to the NEB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
71.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for 7 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+5
70.2%
Boston College Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
72.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 18 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8DOWNS15 plays · 71 yds · 2:2125% → 24%
Q2 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
76.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 15 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+23
75.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 23 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
71.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 5 yds to the NEB 23Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+5
71.7%
Nebraska Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the NEB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
72.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 9 yds to the NEB 9Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
73.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for no gain to the NEB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0823% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11DOWNS11 plays · 53 yds · 4:5580% → 81%
Q3 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-15
80.3%
Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (-15 Yards) to the NEB 32Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+3
79.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 3 yds to the NEB 35Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+10
78.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 10 yds to the NEB 45Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+8
79.2%
Brian Buschini pass complete to Isaac Gifford for 8 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12FUMBLE5 plays · 43 yds · 1:3419% → 21%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+34
80.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 34 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+10
79.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 10 yds to the NEB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
78.9%
Grayson James sacked by John Bullock for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Grayson James fumbled, forced by John Bullock, recovered by NEB Elijah Jeudy , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13TD8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4385% → 93%
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
85.1%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 9 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
85.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 20 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
85.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 5 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+2
85.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 2 yds to the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14DOWNS15 plays · 33 yds · 4:108% → 6%
Q3 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+11
92.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
92.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the NEB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
92.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 11 yds to the NEB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+20
93.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down Nebraska Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NEB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
92.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Turbo Richard for 12 yds to the NEB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:4798% → 99%
Q4 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+7
97.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 7 yds to the NEB 8Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+8
98.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 8 yds to the NEB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-3
98.5%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Daveon Crouch for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD10 plays · 64 yds · 2:464% → 10%
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
96.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 21 yds to the NEB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
95.9%
Nebraska Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NEB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
95.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 5 yds to the NEB 23Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
95.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 6 yds to the NEB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
95.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 4 yds to the NEB 13Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+12
96.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 12 yds to the NEB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3096% → 97%
Q4 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
96.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for no gain to the NEB 31Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+17
96.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Victor Nelson blocked by Victor Nelson TEAM punt 0 yards to the NEB31, recovered by BOSTONCOLL Thornton, Omar at NEB19, Thornton, Omar for 17 yards to the NEB2 (blocked by Nelson, Victor). Omar Thornton return for 17 yds to the NEB 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19END OF GAME13 plays · 45 yds · 3:4088% → 96%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
87.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 15 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
88.8%
Dylan Raiola run for 5 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:18
Jordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)
-25.2
TD · Q3 3:02
Emmett Johnson 13 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (John Hohl Kick)
+9.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 15 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST down
+8.8