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TA&M

Texas A&M 31 at USC 35

USC
2024 · SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · Dec 27, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 15 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down lat. to Rylan Kennedy for no gain to the USC 40 for a 1ST down lat. to Marcel Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 40 for a 1ST down lat. to EJ Smith for 22 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:03: Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 5 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined (Randy Bond KICK) — USC win probability +16.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:24: Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — TA&M win probability +16.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:30: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — TA&M win probability +42.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:49: Marcel Reed run for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — USC win probability +65.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:08: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — TA&M win probability +83.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44USC 4th & 4 at TA&M 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:42USC 4th & 14 at USC 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:36USC 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:38TA&M 4th & 1 at USC 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.6
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:09TA&M 4th & 14 at USC 20, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.3 ptsPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%
    75% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:07USC 4th & 8 at TA&M 26, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.1 ptsPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%
    64% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:15TA&M 4th & 4 at USC 31, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−1.3
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:09TA&M 4th & 1 at USC 43, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.8 ptsPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−7.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:37USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:16TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:03USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:12USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:42TA&M Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:24TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:30TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:49USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−2.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:08TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0144% → 44%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
44.0%
A'Marion Peterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 24Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+7
44.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
44.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
44.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Terry Bussey at the TA&M 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 6:4356% → 50%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
44.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for no gain to the TA&M 22Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
44.2%
Marcel Reed run for 9 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
44.4%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the TA&M 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
44.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Tre Watson for 12 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
44.5%
Jabre Barber run for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+17
44.6%
Terry Bussey run for 1 yd to the USC 45 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
45.1%
Marcel Reed run for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
45.2%
EJ Smith run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+2
45.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+2
46.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 2 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
45.7%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
45.7%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+6
46.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 0
OWN 7
0
46.3%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 0
OWN 7
0
46.4%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 0
OWN 7
+7
50.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 7 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:2851% → 51%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
50.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 8 yds to the TA&M 46Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
51.0%
Jayden Maiava run for 2 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-13
51.4%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 43Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 23
OPP 43
+9
51.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to A'Marion Peterson for 9 yds to the TA&M 48Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 14
OWN 48
0
51.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
50.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0851% → 50%
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+9
49.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Tre Watson for 9 yds to the TA&M 15Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+8
49.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 8 yds to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
49.4%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
49.6%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
50.4%
Marcel Reed pass intercepted Kamari Ramsey return for no gain to the USC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2553% → 52%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
53.4%
Bryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
50
0
53.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 6
50
0
53.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jay FairSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 6
50
0
52.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6INT
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:2350% → 46%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
50.0%
Terry Bussey run for 3 yds to the TA&M 23Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
50.1%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Terry BusseySimilar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+40
51.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 40 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
52.5%
Marcel Reed run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
52.5%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
53.3%
EJ Smith run for 14 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-26
53.8%
Marcel Reed pass intercepted Akili Arnold return for 26 yds to the USC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:1456% → 50%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
56.1%
A'Marion Peterson run for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+7
56.5%
Jayden Maiava run for 7 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
56.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+7
56.7%
Bryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
57.7%
Bryan Jackson run for 12 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
56.6%
Maiava, Jayden pass incomplete to Ford, Kyle, PENALTY TA&M encroachment 5 yards to the TA&M30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
57.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi LaneSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+30
49.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 30 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1955% → 53%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
44.8%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
44.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Rueben Owens for 6 yds to the TA&M 34Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
45.7%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
47.1%
Tyler White punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:1553% → 52%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
52.9%
A'Marion Peterson run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
52.4%
A'Marion Peterson run for 9 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
52.8%
A'Marion Peterson run for 3 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
52.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 11 yds to the TA&M 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
51.5%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted BJ Mayes return for 9 yds to the TA&M 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4356% → 51%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
43.9%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
44.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 7 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-5
44.8%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 26Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-6
45.2%
Marcel Reed sacked by Braylan Shelby for a loss of 6 yards to the TA&M 20Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 14
OPP 20
0
48.6%
Tyler White punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 3:3254% → 48%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
53.9%
Bryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-1
54.1%
Bryan Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 43Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
53.2%
Maiava, Jayden pass incomplete to Ford, Kyle, PENALTY TA&M pass interference 8 yards to the TA&M49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
53.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to A'Marion Peterson for 4 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
53.5%
A'Marion Peterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 46Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
51.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+15
50.3%
Czaplicki, Eddie punt 46 yards to the TA&M0, touchback, PENALTY TA&M roughing the kicker 15 yards to the TA&M31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
51.6%
Bryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the TA&M 25Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
51.7%
Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the TA&M 24Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+2
49.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the TA&M 22Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+39
48.4%
Michael Lantz 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
41.6%
EJ Smith run for no gain to the TA&M 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:3256% → 33%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
43.7%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-5
43.7%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 23Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
44.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the TA&M 26Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+15
45.5%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 15 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
45.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Tre Watson for 21 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
47.3%
EJ Smith run for 17 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
49.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 16 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 0
OWN 5
0
50.7%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for no gain to the USC 5Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 0
OWN 5
+5
67.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 5 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2870% → 67%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
70.1%
A'Marion Peterson run for 2 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
70.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
69.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to A'Marion PetersonSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 8
OPP 26
0
67.3%
Ryon Sayeri punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:4340% → 20%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
60.4%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the TA&M 21Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+9
60.5%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 9 yds to the TA&M 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+36
61.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 36 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
65.9%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 29Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 5
OWN 29
+6
65.7%
Rueben Owens run for 6 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
67.1%
Reed, Marcel pass incomplete to Thomas, Noah, PENALTY USC pass interference 15 yards to the USC8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TA&M.Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 0
OWN 8
-2
68.9%
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 0
OWN 10
+1
71.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 1 yd to the USC 9Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 0
OWN 9
0
72.6%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 0
OWN 9
+27
80.5%
Randy Bond 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1080% → 79%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
80.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-6
79.1%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Cashius Howell return for 6 yds to the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1820% → 12%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 0
OWN 9
+4
80.0%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 0
OWN 5
0
80.4%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Ashton Bethel-RomanSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 0
OWN 5
+5
89.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+15
88.1%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 0:5892% → 80%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
92.3%
A'Marion Peterson run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+23
92.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 23 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
92.4%
Maiava, Jayden pass incomplete to Lyons, Walker, PENALTY TA&M face mask 15 yards to the TA&M32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
92.0%
Maiava, Jayden pass incomplete to Lane, Ja'Kobi, PENALTY TA&M pass interference 15 yards to the TA&M17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
79.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 17 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0524% → 20%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
75.7%
Rueben Owens run for 2 yds to the TA&M 27Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
76.1%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
77.6%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
79.6%
Tyler White punt for 35 yds, downed at the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:3184% → 73%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
83.5%
A'Marion Peterson run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
83.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
82.4%
Texas A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the USC 43Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
82.9%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
84.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 28 yds to the TA&M 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
82.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 7 yds to the TA&M 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+14
83.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 14 yds to the TA&M 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 0
OWN 6
+5
83.0%
Bryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the TA&M 1Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 0
OWN 1
+1
66.9%
Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-15
73.1%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4641% → 37%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
58.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to EJ Smith for 6 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
60.1%
EJ Smith run for 3 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
60.7%
Marcel Reed run for no gain to the TA&M 43Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
63.2%
Tyler White punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.4%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Dalton Brooks return for no gain to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23MISSED FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3836% → 30%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
64.4%
Rueben Owens run for 11 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
66.3%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
66.3%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+1
68.5%
Rueben Owens run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+39
69.9%
Randy Bond 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 5:0077% → 29%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
77.2%
A'Marion Peterson run for 3 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
77.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+11
75.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
77.6%
A'Marion Peterson run for 2 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+33
76.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 33 yds to the TA&M 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
73.3%
Bryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the TA&M 24Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
74.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the TA&M 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
74.7%
Bryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the TA&M 13Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-2
75.4%
Bryan Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 15Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+15
29.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1982% → 24%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
17.9%
Marcel Reed run for 7 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+16
17.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 16 yds to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
14.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to EJ Smith for 12 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
15.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 13 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
11.6%
Marcel Reed run for 8 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
11.6%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+19
76.5%
Marcel Reed run for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:3690% → 12%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
89.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+13
89.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 13 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
91.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the TA&M 48Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
91.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 3 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
93.3%
A'Marion Peterson run for 2 yds to the TA&M 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
93.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jayden Maiava for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 46Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
94.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+33
94.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 33 yds to the TA&M 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
95.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 11 yds to the TA&M 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 0
OWN 2
-5
95.2%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 7Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 0
OWN 7
+7
11.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:0296% → 96%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
4.4%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Terry BusseySimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+22
4.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 15 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down lat. to Rylan Kennedy for no gain to the USC 40 for a 1ST down lat. to Marcel Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 40 for a 1ST down lat. to EJ Smith for 22 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+95.9
TD · Q4 0:08
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-83.7
TD · Q4 1:49
Marcel Reed run for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+65
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com