ARDLINETry the model
TT

Texas Tech 26 at Arkansas 39

A
2024 · Week 1 · Dec 28, 2024 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Win probability · A
modelA aheadTT aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDKEY PLAYTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:53
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Jalin Conyers
-3.2
Q1 14:40
J'Koby Williams run for 11 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q1 14:13
J'Koby Williams run for 7 yds to the TTU 43
-0.3
Q1 14:10
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (Caleb Douglas) to the TTU 38
-1.1
Q1 13:47
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas
+0.3
Q1 13:18
Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 4 yds to the TTU 42
0.0
Q1 12:57
Jack Burgess punt for 42 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for no gain to the ARK 16
0.0
Q1 12:37
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the ARK 18
+3.5
Q1 12:08
Rodney Hill run for 70 yds to the TTU 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:28
Taylen Green run for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+18.0
Q1 11:28
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.1
Q1 11:05
Will Hammond pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 12 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST down
-4.8
Q1 10:23
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 40 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 10:00
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas
-2.6
Q1 9:40
J'Koby Williams run for 8 yds to the ARK 15
0.0
Q1 9:10
Will Hammond run for 1 yd to the ARK 14
+0.1
Q1 8:39
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (Davion Carter) to the ARK 19
+0.2
Q1 8:19
Gino Garcia 37 yd FG GOOD
-7.4
Q1 8:19
Reese Burkhardt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.1
Q1 7:51
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 18 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST down
+3.0
Q1 7:34
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 56 yds to the TTU 1 for a 1ST down
+2.5
Q1 7:14
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+12.5
Q1 7:14
Devin Bale kickoff for 64 yds , Drae McCray return for 20 yds to the TTU 21
-0.8
Q1 6:45
Will Hammond pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 8 yds to the TTU 29
-4.7
Q1 6:20
J'Koby Williams run for 4 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:43
J'Koby Williams run for 8 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ian Geffrard) to the ARK 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:33
Will Hammond pass complete to Mason Tharp for 44 yds to the ARK 5 for a 1ST down
-1.5
Q1 4:55
J'Koby Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 6
-0.7
Q1 4:32
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas
0.0
Q1 4:20
J'Koby Williams run for 2 yds to the ARK 4
0.0
Q1 3:57
Timeout Texas Tech, clock 03:57
+0.3
Q1 3:54
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Coy Eakin
0.0
Q1 3:43
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 5
+6.8
Q1 3:10
Braylen Russell run for 6 yds to the ARK 11
0.0
Q1 2:44
Arkansas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Fernando Carmona) to the ARK 6
0.0
Q1 2:31
Taylen Green pass complete to Dazmin James for 94 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+13.5
Q1 2:31
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards)
+1.2
Q1 2:20
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 8 yds to the TTU 38
-2.1
Q1 2:00
Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the TTU 41 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q1 1:45
Cameron Dickey run for 6 yds to the TTU 47
0.0
Q1 1:00
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas
-0.4
Q1 0:55
Will Hammond run for 7 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:46
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas
-0.7
Q1 0:40
Cameron Dickey run for no gain to the ARK 46
+0.1
Q2 14:55
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas
0.0
Q2 14:46
Jack Burgess punt for 44 yds, downed at the ARK 2
0.0
Q2 14:10
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 3
+1.7
Q2 13:53
Arkansas Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the ARK 2
0.0
Q2 13:32
Taylen Green sacked by Isaac Smith for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY
+0.6
Q2 13:32
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds , Drae McCray return for 16 yds to the TTU 31
0.0
Q2 13:15
Cameron Dickey run for 5 yds to the TTU 36
-5.4
Q2 12:38
Cameron Dickey run for 2 yds to the TTU 38
-0.1
Q2 12:18
Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 5 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 11:43
Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the TTU 46
+2.5
Q2 11:15
J'Koby Williams run for 54 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-16.7
Q2 11:15
Reese Burkhardt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.1
Q2 11:05
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24
+3.1
Q2 10:32
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Dazmin James
+0.9
Q2 10:18
Taylen Green pass complete to Dazmin James for 24 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:58
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 45 Rodney Hill fumbled, forced by James Hansen, recovered by TTU Charles Esters III
+2.1
Q2 9:30
J'Koby Williams run for 2 yds to the ARK 43
-6.0
Q2 9:03
J'Koby Williams run for 2 yds to the ARK 41
-0.4
Q2 8:26
Jalin Conyers run for 4 yds to the ARK 37
0.0
Q2 8:04
Timeout Texas Tech, clock 08:04
+1.4
Q2 7:59
J'Koby Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 38
0.0
Q2 7:30
Braylen Russell run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 34
+5.8
Q2 7:14
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 12 yds to the ARK 46
-0.4
Q2 6:40
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 47
+0.1
Q2 5:52
Devin Bale punt for 51 yds, downed at the TTU 2
-0.3
Q2 5:45
J'Koby Williams run for 2 yds to the TTU 4
-3.6
Q2 5:30
Cameron Dickey run for 7 yds to the TTU 11
0.0
Q2 4:35
Cameron Dickey run for 15 yds to the TTU 26 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q2 4:05
Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 10 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:20
Cameron Dickey run for 11 yds to the TTU 47 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 2:42
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 47 yds to the ARK 6 for a 1ST down
-1.1
Q2 2:12
Cameron Dickey run for 4 yds to the ARK 2
-1.2
Q2 2:03
Timeout Arkansas, clock 02:03
+1.6
Q2 1:58
Jalin Conyers run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-17.5
Q2 1:58
Reese Burkhardt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+3.0
Q2 1:48
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 5 yds to the ARK 30
+3.9
Q2 1:24
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:20
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Krosse Johnson
+1.6
Q2 1:04
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the ARK 41
+0.3
Q2 0:43
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 44
+0.4
Q2 0:40
Timeout Arkansas, clock 00:40
-0.7
Q2 0:30
Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:27
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden
+0.8
Q2 0:18
Taylen Green run for 13 yds to the TTU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:09
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Krosse Johnson
+0.9
Q2 0:03
Taylen Green pass complete to Dazmin James for 19 yds to the TTU 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:03
Timeout Texas Tech, clock 00:03
0.0
Q2 0:00
Matthew Shipley 40 yd FG GOOD
+6.9
Q3 15:00
Reese Burkhardt kickoff for 65 yds , Xavian Sorey Jr. return for 6 yds to the ARK 6 Xavian Sorey Jr. fumbled, forced by Miquel Dingle Jr., recovered by ARK Rodney Hill
-7.9
Q3 14:50
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the ARK 8
+4.8
Q3 13:56
Taylen Green run for 27 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST down
+1.3
Q3 13:35
Taylen Green run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+1.6
Q3 12:45
Braylen Russell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 49
+2.4
Q3 12:17
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Braylen Russell
0.0
Q3 11:56
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 33 yds to the TTU 18 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 11:34
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the TTU 16
+0.6
Q3 11:03
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Rodney Hill
0.0
Q3 10:56
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaa
-0.2
Q3 10:52
Matthew Shipley 34 yd FG GOOD
+3.7
Q3 10:52
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.1
Q3 10:46
Will Hammond pass incomplete to J'Koby Williams
-3.8
Q3 10:30
J'Koby Williams run for 6 yds to the TTU 31
0.0
Q3 9:55
Will Hammond pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 3 yds to the TTU 34
+0.3
Q3 9:24
Jack Burgess punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the ARK 23
+2.9
Q3 9:05
Braylen Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 21
-0.1
Q3 8:35
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 22
0.0
Q3 7:28
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 31 yds to the TTU 47 for a 1ST down
+2.6
Q3 7:07
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrell Reed Jr. for 47 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+15.0
Q3 7:07
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q3 6:55
Cameron Dickey run for 2 yds to the TTU 27
-2.4
Q3 6:29
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Coy Eakin
+0.3
Q3 6:14
Will Hammond pass complete to Jordan Brown for 9 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 5:52
Cameron Dickey run for 2 yds to the TTU 38
0.0
Q3 5:25
Will Hammond pass complete to Kelby Valsin for 9 yds to the TTU 47 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q3 5:06
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 12 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 4:49
Cameron Dickey run for 6 yds to the ARK 35
-0.2
Q3 4:07
Will Hammond pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 3 yds to the ARK 32
-0.7
Q3 3:50
J'Koby Williams run for 14 yds to the ARK 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:15
Will Hammond pass complete to L.J. Johnson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 22
+1.0
Q3 2:52
Will Hammond pass intercepted Marquise Robinson return for 26 yds to the ARK 33
0.0
Q3 2:30
Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the ARK 36
+3.5
Q3 2:04
Rodney Hill run for 6 yds to the ARK 42
+0.9
Q3 1:35
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:53
Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the ARK 48
+0.6
Q3 0:10
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 14:57
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Braylen Russell
0.0
Q4 14:57
Arkansas Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ARK 45
0.0
Q4 14:49
Devin Bale punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jordan Brown at the TTU 2
+1.6
Q4 14:30
J'Koby Williams run for 5 yds to the TTU 7
+0.4
Q4 14:21
Will Hammond sacked by Anton Juncaj for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETY
+2.1
Q4 14:21
Stone Harrington kickoff for 63 yds , Rodney Hill return for 18 yds to the ARK 35
0.0
Q4 14:10
Taylen Green pass incomplete
+0.3
Q4 14:01
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 2 yds to the ARK 37
0.0
Q4 13:21
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaa
0.0
Q4 13:13
Devin Bale punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 26 Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TTU 31
0.0
Q4 13:13
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (Caleb Rodkey) to the TTU 26
-0.3
Q4 13:02
Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the TTU 29
+1.1
Q4 12:25
Cameron Dickey run for 5 yds to the TTU 34
-0.1
Q4 11:45
Will Hammond pass incomplete to Kelby Valsin
+0.1
Q4 11:39
Jack Burgess punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the ARK 20
0.0
Q4 11:30
Braylen Russell run for 7 yds to the ARK 27
-1.2
Q4 10:45
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 28
0.0
Q4 10:17
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 29
0.0
Q4 10:17
Timeout Texas Tech, clock 10:17
+1.3
Q4 10:17
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Isaac TeSlaa) to the ARK 24
0.0
Q4 10:09
Devin Bale punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 24
0.0
Q4 9:20
Will Hammond run for 12 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:00
Will Hammond run for 1 yd to the TTU 37
+0.1
Q4 8:55
Will Hammond pass intercepted Miguel Mitchell return for 47 yds to the TTU 24
0.0
Q4 8:45
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the TTU 23
+0.6
Q4 8:07
Timeout Arkansas, clock 08:07
0.0
Q4 8:01
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for 8 yds to the TTU 15
0.0
Q4 7:25
Braylen Russell run for 6 yds to the TTU 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:31
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the TTU 8
0.0
Q4 5:53
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Kobe Branham) to the TTU 13
0.0
Q4 5:40
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the TTU 11
0.0
Q4 5:20
Taylen Green sacked by Isaac Smith and Ashton Hampton for a loss of 14 yards to the TTU 25 Arkansas Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taylen Green) to the TTU 25
0.0
Q4 5:02
Matthew Shipley 43 yd FG GOOD
+2.4
Q4 5:02
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards)
-0.4
Q4 4:52
Will Hammond pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 22 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST down
-1.6
Q4 4:00
Will Hammond pass complete to Kelby Valsin for 7 yds to the ARK 41
+0.6
Q4 3:35
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 8 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 3:19
Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 18 yds to the ARK 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 3:11
Will Hammond pass incomplete to J'Koby Williams
0.0
Q4 3:06
Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 15 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-6.1
Q4 3:06
Gino Garcia kickoff for 15 yds
+0.3
Q4 2:58
Braylen Russell run for 11 yds to the TTU 34 for a 1ST down
+1.3
Q4 2:12
Braylen Russell run for 8 yds to the TTU 26
0.0
Q4 2:12
Timeout Texas Tech, clock 02:12
0.0
Q4 2:06
Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the TTU 24 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 2:06
Timeout Texas Tech, clock 02:06
0.0
Q4 2:00
Braylen Russell run for 6 yds to the TTU 18
0.0
Q4 1:49
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the TTU 18
+0.5
Q4 0:53
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the TTU 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 14
+0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 11:28
Taylen Green run for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+18
TD · Q2 1:58
Jalin Conyers run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q2 11:15
J'Koby Williams run for 54 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-16.7
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com