2024 · Birmingham Bowl · Dec 27, 2024 · Protective Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:06: Haynes King pass complete to Ryland Goede for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +6.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:55: Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +9.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:56: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +19.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +9.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:30: Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +8.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:32GT 4th & 8 at GT 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q1 10:30VAN 4th & 7 at GT 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it45.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q1 7:06GT 4th & 6 at VAN 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snapGo for it54.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.3%average punt
- Q2 15:00GT 4th & 2 at VAN 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.8%57% to convertField goal47.0%−0.851% to makePunt46.4%−1.4average punt
- Q2 1:55VAN 4th & 1 at GT 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.1%60% to convertField goal49.5%−2.694% to makePunt43.8%−8.2average punt
- Q2 0:08GT 4th & 10 at VAN 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snapGo for it36.2%−1.729% to convertField goalTheir call37.9%64% to makePunt33.7%−4.1average punt
- Q3 12:25VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snapGo for it56.6%−1.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.6%average punt
- Q3 8:34GT 4th & 6 at VAN 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snapGo for it39.6%−0.738% to convertField goalTheir call40.3%81% to makePunt32.8%−7.5average punt
- Q3 5:17VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 29, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.7%−1.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.5%average punt
- Q3 3:16GT 4th & 2 at GT 10, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it40.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.5%−2.2average punt
- Q4 7:17GT 4th & 15 at GT 47, down 22Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%average punt
- Q4 4:06VAN 4th & 8 at GT 46, up 15Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.1%34% to convertField goal96.7%−0.423% to makePuntTheir call97.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 2:26VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.2%97% to makeGo for two51.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:06GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.7%97% to makeGo for two49.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:55VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.5%97% to makeGo for two60.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:56VAN Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.1%97% to makeGo for two75.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:55VAN Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:59VAN Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:03GT Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two3.4%45% to convert
- Q4 1:30GT Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call4.5%−0.897% to makeGo for two5.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2865% → 65%
Q1 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
35.1%
Haynes King sacked by Nicholas Rinaldi for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 3:0236% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2464% → 62%
VANDrive 4TD8 plays · 87 yds · 4:4038% → 46%
Q1 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+14
37.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 14 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+40
40.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 40 yds to the GT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:2056% → 60%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 7 yds to the GT 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+2
45.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 2 yds to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
43.8%
Jamal Haynes run for 5 yds to the VAN 25 Georgia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson Hawes) to the VAN 35Similar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+11
44.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 11 yds to the VAN 24Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
44.6%
Chad Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 16 Chad Alexander fumbled, forced by Glenn Seabrooks III, recovered by GT Ethan Mackenny , return for 2 yds to the VAN 16Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+10
45.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh Jr. for 10 yds to the VAN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Ryland Goede for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD17 plays · 81 yds · 8:1143% → 58%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
42.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 6 yds to the VAN 25Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
43.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 5 yds to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
47.6%
Pavia, Diego pass incomplete to Fouonji, Loic, PENALTY GATECH face mask (Burrell, Warren) 15 yards to the GATECH33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7FG17 plays · 49 yds · 1:4744% → 44%
Q2 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
56.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 9 yds to the GT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
55.8%
King, Haynes pass complete to Alexander, Chad for 3 yards to the VAN48, PENALTY VAN holding (Taylor, Kolbey) 10 yards to the VAN41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
55.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kolbey Taylor) to the VAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
52.7%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Defensive Offside (Khordae Sydnor) to the VAN 21Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-3
54.2%
Haynes King sacked by Nicholas Rinaldi for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2853% → 52%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
52.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
54.3%
Diego Pavia sacked by Zeek Biggers for a loss of 9 yards to the VAN 29 Vanderbilt Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Diego Pavia) to the VAN 29Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+12
52.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 12 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+28
52.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 49 yds , Bailey Stockton returns for 28 yds to the GT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10FG8 plays · 46 yds · 3:5148% → 49%
Q3 11:57
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+20
52.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 20 yds to the VAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+20
50.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 20 yds to the VAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
52.3%
Haynes King run for no gain to the VAN 16 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Joe FusileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1253% → 52%
GTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0145% → 42%
Q3 3:16
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+7
58.3%
David Shanahan punt for 53 yds , Martel Hight returns for 7 yds to the VAN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD9 plays · 56 yds · 2:2059% → 80%
Q3 2:26
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+15
58.3%
Pavia, Diego pass incomplete to Alexander, Sedrick, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Tatum, Trenilyas) 15 yards to the GATECH37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
60.8%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
61.9%
Pavia, Diego pass incomplete to Sherrill, Junior, PENALTY GATECH holding (Harvey, Ahmari) 10 yards to the GATECH12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
81.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+15
79.9%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-22
78.1%
Haynes King pass intercepted CJ Taylor return for 22 yds to the GT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15TD3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4983% → 92%
GTDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 59 yds · 1:0911% → 11%
Q4 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+29
88.9%
Malik Rutherford run for 29 yds to the VAN 27 Malik Rutherford fumbled, forced by Miles Capers, recovered by VAN Aeneas DiCosmoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD6 plays · 73 yds · 3:4192% → 99%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
94.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 39 yds to the GT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:562% → 5%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 12 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
98.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 11 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-5
98.7%
Haynes King run for a loss of 5 yards to the GT 47 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Haynes KingSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 15
OWN 47
+29
99.0%
Haynes King run for 14 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST down Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (CJ Taylor) to the VAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
99.0%
Haynes King sacked by Yilanan Ouattara for a loss of 4 yards to the VAN 9Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 9 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 0:3497% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20TD14 plays · 83 yds · 2:253% → 12%
Q4 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+11
97.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh Jr. for 11 yds to the GT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
97.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 15 yds to the GT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 15
50
+13
97.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh Jr. for 13 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
96.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 12 yds to the VAN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
96.5%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the VAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · -12 yds · 1:2697% → 97%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:56
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q2 1:55
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q4 14:55
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+9.1