Try the model
USF

South Florida 41 at San José State 39

SJSU
2024 · Hawaiʻi Bowl · Dec 24, 2024 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:26 · Andrew Stokes punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2Play 88Home team on offense−11.1Pregame prior−6.6Garbage-time factor−3.1Score differential−6.0Time remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:41: Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 5 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +22.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:14: Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +42.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:02: John Cannon 41 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +31.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Matthew Coleman 4 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Kyler Halvorsen Kick) — SJSU win probability +34.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: John Cannon 36 Yd Field Goal — USF win probability +25.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:01SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31USF 4th & 3 at USF 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:49USF 4th & 1 at SJSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35USF 4th & 9 at USF 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00SJSU 4th & 10 at USF 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:26USF 4th & 8 at USF 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:05SJSU 4th & 5 at USF 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−8.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:10USF 4th & 6 at USF 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:00USF 4th & 13 at SJSU 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−5.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−17.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:55SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:49USF 4th & 24 at USF 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−6.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:31SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−3.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:36USF 4th & 7 at USF 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:13SJSU 4th & 1 at USF 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%−11.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−8.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:03SJSU 4th & 11 at USF 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:09USF 4th & 9 at USF 23, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:53SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:45USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:53USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:09SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:41SJSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:14SJSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5537% → 38%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
36.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 18 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
36.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Sebastian Macaluso for 8 yds to the SJSU 48Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-4
36.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSU 44Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
37.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
37.5%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2562% → 62%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
37.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 3 yds to the USF 13Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
37.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the USF 17Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
37.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Kelley Joiner for no gain to the USF 17Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
38.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0338% → 41%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 7 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
38.4%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
50
+5
39.0%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 5 yds to the USF 45Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
39.2%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
39.2%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 7 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
39.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 2 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
39.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 5 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+15
40.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 15 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
40.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
40.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Cooper Hoch for 6 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
40.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 10 yds TreyShun Hurry fumbled, recovered by USFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:3160% → 66%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the USF 21Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
39.9%
Bryce Archie run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 19Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+12
40.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
39.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 5 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
39.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
39.5%
Bryce Archie run for 3 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
39.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 42 yds to the SJSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
38.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the SJSU 9Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+1
38.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the SJSU 8Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
39.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 2 yds to the SJSU 6Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
39.8%
Cole Skinner run for 2 yds to the SJSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
38.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the SJSU 3Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3036% → 36%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 4 yds to the SJSU 29Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
35.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 10 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
36.4%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
36.2%
Walker Eget run for 7 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
36.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
35.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2765% → 65%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
35.4%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 21Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
35.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
35.8%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Ira Singleton) to the USF 18Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+30
36.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 30 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
33.8%
Bryce Archie run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 47Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+4
34.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 4 yds to the SJSU 49Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+3
33.7%
Bryce Archie run for 3 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 4
OPP 46
-5
34.2%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Michael Brown-Stephens) to the USF 49Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
34.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5335% → 35%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.3%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
35.0%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 9 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
35.5%
San José State Penalty, False Start (Justin Lockhart) to the SJSU 31Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
34.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 15
OWN 31
-29
34.6%
Walker Eget pass intercepted Tavin Ward return for 29 yds to the SJSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3168% → 76%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
31.9%
Bryce Archie run for 4 yds to the SJSU 12Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
30.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the SJSU 7Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
30.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the SJSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
30.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the SJSU 4Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:3726% → 36%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
26.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 6 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
26.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 8 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
26.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 4 yds to the SJSU 48Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
26.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 9 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
26.6%
South Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (De'Shawn Rucker) to the USF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
26.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 5 yds to the USF 8Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
26.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 4 yds to the USF 4Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
20.2%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 1 yd to the USF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 1:5118% → 26%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 7 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
18.8%
(01:30) EGET, Walker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LOCKHART, Justin thrown to the USF40, clock 01:23. PENALTY USF Offsides on GRANT, Jahari enforced 5 yards from the SJSU32 to the SJSU37 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
18.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Sebastian Macaluso for 4 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
19.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Sebastian Macaluso for 3 yds to the SJSU 44Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
18.6%
Jabari Bates run for 5 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
19.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 12 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
19.5%
Walker Eget run for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+8
22.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 8 yds to the USF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
22.6%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
22.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
21.4%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
26.1%
Kyler Halvorsen 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2772% → 71%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
27.6%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Cole Best) to the USF 25Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+7
28.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
27.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
28.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:26
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
28.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:1227% → 31%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
27.4%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 4 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+15
27.6%
South Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Marco Augustin) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
50
+2
29.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 2 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
29.1%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 15 yds to the USF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
30.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 15 yds to the USF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
30.2%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
30.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 8 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
27.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Cooper Hoch for 5 yds to the USF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.3%
(09:46) EGET, Walker pass to the right complete for -5 yards to CANAAN, Jackson caught at the USF10 and advanced to the USF10, End of Play, clock 09:38. PENALTY SJSU Illegal Touch-Pass on CANAAN, Jackson enforced 0 yards from the USF5 to the USF5, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.2%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
26.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
30.7%
Kyler Halvorsen 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:0173% → 73%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
27.0%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 22Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-10
27.7%
(08:47) KEITH, Ta'Ron rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the USF25 (LATU, Taniela;TOIA, Soane), clock 08:43. PENALTY USF Holding on BEST, Cole enforced 10 yards from the USF22 to the USF12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+14
27.6%
Bryce Archie run for 14 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
27.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 8 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
27.1%
South Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the USF 29Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-2
28.5%
punt for 54 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 15Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
26.8%
San José State Penalty, False Start (TreyShun Hurry) to the SJSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:2027% → 53%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+2
26.8%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the SJSU 12Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+28
26.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 28 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
29.2%
(05:50) EGET, Walker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LOCKHART, Justin broken up by CHENAULT, James at the USF30, clock 05:47. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on CHENAULT, James enforced 15 yards to the USF45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
31.0%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 9 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+8
29.1%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 8 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
30.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 23 yds to the USF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 5 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 5:4157% → 68%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.5%
Bryce Archie run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
43.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
43.4%
San José State Penalty, Disconcerting Signals on COBBS, Jordan enforced (Jordan Cobbs) to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
41.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
40.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
39.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 6 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
38.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the SJSU 42Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
40.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 4 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
39.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SJSU 34Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
37.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+10
40.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 10 yds to the SJSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
35.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the SJSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
36.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SJSU 8Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+2
36.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the SJSU 6Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-9
37.7%
Bryce Archie sacked by Noah McNeal-Franklin for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSU 15Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+33
32.1%
John Cannon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5437% → 34%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
37.3%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
36.9%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 33Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
34.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+4
33.6%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 51 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 4 yds to the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1969% → 71%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
31.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-27
29.0%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Noah McNeal-Franklin return for 27 yds to the USF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q4 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.7%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:2337% → 33%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.9%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.4%
Bryce Archie run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 23Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-12
65.6%
Bryce Archie sacked by Isiah Revis for a loss of 12 yards to the USF 11Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
66.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 yds, downed at the SJSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1171% → 67%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
71.3%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSU 38Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+7
69.2%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 7 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
69.2%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
67.3%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4536% → 33%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
64.6%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 23Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
66.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
67.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 51 yds, downed at the SJSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2570% → 80%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
69.7%
Lamar Radcliffe run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 25Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+20
68.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 20 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
74.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
73.3%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+9
71.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Floyd Chalk IV for 9 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
72.9%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 1 yd to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
81.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 46Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
82.1%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
80.1%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
79.7%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:5230% → 24%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
70.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 12 yds to the USF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
70.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
72.8%
Bryce Archie run for 1 yd to the USF 23Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
74.7%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
75.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 72 yds, downed at the SJSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0386% → 84%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
85.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 4 yds to the SJSU 9Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+5
80.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 5 yds to the SJSU 14Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 1
OWN 14
0
80.0%
Floyd Chalk IV run for no gain to the SJSU 14Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+16
84.3%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 52 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:4030% → 58%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
50
+10
70.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 10 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
68.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
69.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+17
70.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 17 yds to the SJSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.2%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
67.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+41
42.0%
John Cannon 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
56.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by EGET, Walker at SJSU16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
41.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 23 yds to the SJSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 28TD
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
28.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
22.6%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+12
19.7%
Walker Eget run for 12 yds to the USF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
28.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 3 yds to the USF 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
28.0%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+6
25.5%
Walker Eget run for 6 yds to the USF 6Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
23.2%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
28.0%
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the USF 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
28.0%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
25.5%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.7%
Matthew Coleman 4 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 15:0066% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
65.6%
Lamar Radcliffe run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+15
65.4%
(00:00) EGET, Walker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LOCKHART, Justin thrown to the USF0. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on AUSTIN, Brent enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the USF11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
65.6%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
65.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 7 yds to the USF 4Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
63.2%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the USF 2Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-5
60.1%
San José State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the USF 7Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
80.2%
Kyler Halvorsen 24 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 15:0029% → 50%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
71.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the SJSU 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
72.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the SJSU 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-1
75.0%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 18Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
50.0%
John Cannon 36 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-50
TD · Q4 11:14
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
+42.6
TD · OT 0:00
Matthew Coleman 4 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)
+34.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com