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NIU

Northern Illinois 28 at Fresno State 20

FRES
2024 · Famous Idaho Potato Bowl · Dec 23, 2024 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:56 · Clay Lawrence punt for 31 yds, downed at the NIU 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingGarbage-time factor
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 104Home team on offense+2.1Pregame prior−1.9Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Time remaining−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:08: Joshua Wood 13 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick) — FRES win probability +6.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:22: Grayson Barnes 26 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick) — NIU win probability +12.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Bryson Donelson 9 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Dylan Lynch Kick) — FRES win probability +16.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Grayson Barnes 3 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick) — NIU win probability +42.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Dane Pardridge 25 Yd pass from George Dimopoulos (George Dimopoulos Pass to Josh Holst for Two-Point Conversion) — NIU win probability +28.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:39FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31NIU 4th & 2 at FRES 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45NIU 4th & 5 at FRES 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:25NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:21NIU 4th & 3 at FRES 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−1.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:45NIU 4th & 5 at FRES 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15NIU 4th & 1 at FRES 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−9.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:29FRES 4th & 6 at NIU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:39NIU 4th & 7 at FRES 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:56FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 43, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:01NIU 4th & 4 at FRES 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−3.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:15FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:53NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−4.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:57FRES 4th & 1 at NIU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−6.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−23.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:02NIU 4th & 1 at FRES 18, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 10.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%−10.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−35.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:29FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:08FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:22NIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2144% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
44.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
44.5%
Jayden Mandal run for 3 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
44.8%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Mose Vavao) to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
44.7%
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-26
44.9%
Josh Holst pass intercepted Jayden Davis return for 26 yds to the NIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:5845% → 47%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
45.4%
Jayden Mandal pass complete to Mac Dalena for 21 yds to the NIU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
45.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the NIU 1Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.7%
Bryson Donelson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 8:4454% → 51%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
46.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
46.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to Romelo Ware for 9 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
46.7%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
46.8%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.9%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Cam ThompsonSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
47.1%
Jaylen Poe run for 9 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-1
47.2%
Josh Holst sacked by Sione Noa for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 44Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+3
47.9%
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 3 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
48.3%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
48.6%
Jaylen Poe run for 1 yd to the FRES 37Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+20
49.1%
Josh Holst run for 20 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
48.8%
Justin Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 18Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+3
49.1%
Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the FRES 15Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+3
50.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for 3 yds to the FRES 12Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
48.7%
Kanon Woodill 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:2449% → 56%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
48.9%
Joshua Wood run for 10 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
49.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 13 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+54
49.4%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 54 yds to the NIU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
56.0%
Joshua Wood 13 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6DOWNS
21 plays · 85 yds · 11:4545% → 37%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
54.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 15Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-2
55.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+10
56.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 10 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+2
56.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 25Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
57.5%
Josh Holst pass complete to La'Don Bryant for 28 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
56.2%
Jaylen Poe run for 3 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
56.2%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+1
57.4%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the FRES 40Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+6
58.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 6 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
57.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FRES 33Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
58.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+2
59.6%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+14
61.4%
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 14 yds to the FRES 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
59.5%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 9 yds to the FRES 6Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
60.0%
Jaylen Poe run for 2 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
60.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.7%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.7%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7MISSED FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 3:4665% → 68%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
64.7%
Joshua Wood run for 4 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+3
64.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 8Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+10
65.3%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
67.4%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 1 yd to the FRES 19Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+8
67.6%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 8 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+6
67.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 6 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
68.3%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 13 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
69.6%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 6
50
+15
69.9%
Joshua Wood run for 15 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
71.4%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Jacob Spomer) to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
70.6%
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Lyndon RavareSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+9
70.3%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 9 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
68.8%
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Johnathan ArceneauxSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
67.5%
Dylan Lynch 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2333% → 31%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.3%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
67.4%
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 1 yd to the NIU 32Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
68.5%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 32Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+1
68.8%
Tom Foley punt blocked by Kosi Aginat 0 yards to the NIU32, recovered by FRESNOST Foreman, Korey at NIU25, Foreman, Korey for 1 yard to the NIU24 (blocked by Agina, Kosi). Korey Foreman return for 1 yd to the NIU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9MISSED FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+42
69.4%
Dylan Lynch 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
67.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:3133% → 45%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
67.0%
Jaylen Poe run for 13 yds to the NIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
66.5%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 20 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
67.0%
Jaylen Poe run for 1 yd to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
67.6%
Jaylen Poe run for 4 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+15
68.4%
Holst, Josh pass incomplete to Bryant, La'Don, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Mouzon, Loyall) 15 yards to the FRESNOST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
66.5%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-3
67.0%
Josh Holst sacked by Jairus Satele for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 26Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+26
54.7%
Grayson Barnes 26 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2460% → 58%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
60.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-5
60.7%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Toreon Penright) to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 12
OWN 42
0
58.9%
Jayden Mandal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-11
58.0%
Jayden Mandal pass intercepted Nate Valcarcel return for 11 yds to the NIU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:1146% → 51%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
53.7%
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 21 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
52.3%
Holst, Josh pass incomplete to Bragg, Isaiah, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Miller, RL) 10 yards to the FRESNOST20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.Similar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
52.0%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
52.0%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 17Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
53.6%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
48.7%
Kanon Woodill 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4353% → 54%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
55.5%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
53.7%
Jayden Mandal pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 2 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.0%
Jayden Mandal pass incomplete to Richie AndersonSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
53.8%
Jayden Mandal pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 8 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
56.1%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 43Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
54.0%
Clay Lawrence punt for 31 yds, downed at the NIU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5550% → 52%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
49.7%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George DimopoulosSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
50.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 15 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
46.9%
Josh Holst run for 11 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
45.5%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Dane PardridgeSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
46.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for 1 yd to the FRES 47Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+5
47.1%
Josh Holst run for 5 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
48.3%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4657% → 52%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
57.2%
Joshua Wood sacked by Pierce Oppong for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 36Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 16
OWN 36
0
54.3%
Joshua Wood pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+5
52.4%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 5 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
51.9%
Clay Lawrence punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0750% → 46%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
50.4%
Josh Holst run for 5 yds to the NIU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-3
49.4%
Josh Holst run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 22Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
52.7%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Andrew McElroySimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
54.3%
Tom Foley punt for 52 yds, downed at the FRES 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5655% → 60%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
55.1%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 21 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
59.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
60.5%
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+15
59.4%
Wood, Joshua pass incomplete to Brown, Jordan, PENALTY NIU roughing passer (O'Malley, Devonte) 15 yards to the NIU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
61.9%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
62.0%
Joshua Wood run for 7 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
60.1%
Joshua Wood run for no gain to the NIU 23Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
60.3%
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Richie AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19MISSED FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 7:5548% → 52%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
51.6%
Josh Holst run for 5 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
50.5%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+4
51.0%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
50.9%
Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
47.9%
Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-2
48.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 40Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+5
52.0%
Holst, Josh pass incomplete, PENALTY FRESNOST offside (Foreman, Korey) 5 yards to the NIU45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.Similar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
46.8%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 16 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
45.1%
Josh Holst run for 9 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
43.1%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
43.0%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 1
OPP 18
-1
43.0%
Josh Holst run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 19Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
45.0%
Jaylen Poe run for 1 yd to the FRES 18Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+35
47.7%
Kanon Woodill 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:0259% → 66%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 25Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+23
59.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 23 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
64.0%
Joshua Wood run for 4 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+16
65.1%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 16 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
68.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+10
68.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 10 yds to the NIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
68.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the NIU 15Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-2
68.9%
Joshua Wood run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 17Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+35
65.6%
Dylan Lynch 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
65.6%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 11 yds to the NIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
65.6%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Richie Anderson for 5 yds to the NIU 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
82.3%
Bryson Donelson 9 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
80.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+13
83.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 13 yds to the FRES 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
80.1%
Josh Holst run for 8 yds to the FRES 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
79.0%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
83.6%
Dimopoulos, George pass incomplete to Tewes, Tristen, PENALTY FRESNOST holding (Davis, Jayden) 3 yards to the FRESNOST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.2%
Grayson Barnes 3 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
13.1%
Dane Pardridge 25 Yd pass from George Dimopoulos (George Dimopoulos Pass to Josh Holst for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24Uncategorized
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0015% → 10%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
15.0%
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Lyndon RavareSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
13.1%
Joshua Wood run for 1 yd to the NIU 24Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
11.7%
Joshua Wood pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
-14
9.8%
Joshua Wood sacked by Jordan Hansen for a loss of 14 yards to the NIU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Grayson Barnes 3 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick)
-42.5
TD · OT2 0:00
Dane Pardridge 25 Yd pass from George Dimopoulos (George Dimopoulos Pass to Josh Holst for Two-Point Conversion)
-28
TD · OT 0:00
Bryson Donelson 9 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Dylan Lynch Kick)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com