ARDLINETry the model
M

Memphis 42 at West Virginia 37

WV
2024 · Week 1 · Dec 18, 2024 · Toyota Stadium
Win probability · WV
modelWV aheadM aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDKEY PLAYTDKEY PLAY
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd to the WVU 26 fumbled, recovered by WVU return for 0 yds
0.0
Q1 15:00
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 3 yds to the WVU 29
0.0
Q1 15:00
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 13:40
STRAW, Oliver punt 44 yards to the MEM27, fair catch by DRAKE, Koby, clock 13:32. PENALTY Before the snap, WVU Illegal Formation MEM Holding , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-0.1
Q1 13:32
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVU 6
+0.3
Q1 13:32
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVU 10
0.0
Q1 13:32
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 13:23
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 31
-3.5
Q1 13:23
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 3 yds to the MEM 34
0.0
Q1 13:23
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 14 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:23
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the WVU 49
-2.0
Q1 13:23
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 49
-0.2
Q1 13:23
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the WVU 45
+0.2
Q1 13:23
Oliver Straw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 30
+5.2
Q1 9:37
Joshua Sloan punt for 43 yds, downed at the WVU 2
-5.1
Q1 7:56
Oliver Straw punt for 48 yds , Koby Drake returns for 13 yds to the WVU 45
+5.3
Q1 7:55
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 12 yds to the WVU 33 for a 1ST down
-5.5
Q1 7:18
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVU 31
-0.1
Q1 6:39
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 4 yds to the WVU 27
0.0
Q1 5:55
Seth Henigan run for 23 yds to the WVU 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:06
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
-12.5
Q1 5:05
Jahiem White run for 3 yds to the WVU 28
+4.6
Q1 4:47
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 6 yds to the WVU 34
0.0
Q1 4:07
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:32
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 6 yds to the WVU 42
+0.1
Q1 2:54
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 41 fumbled, recovered by MEM Mond Cole M. Cole return for 0 yds
+0.5
Q1 2:43
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
-5.1
Q1 2:37
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the WVU 38
0.0
Q1 1:58
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 20 yds to the WVU 18 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 1:25
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for no gain to the WVU 18
+0.1
Q1 0:48
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVU 16
0.0
Q1 0:03
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
+0.1
Q2 14:56
Tristian Vandenberg 34 yd FG GOOD
-1.6
Q2 14:56
Jahiem White run for 1 yd to the WVU 26
+3.3
Q2 14:34
Garrett Greene run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVU 22
+0.1
Q2 13:48
Garrett Greene run for 15 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:03
Jahiem White run for 2 yds to the WVU 39
0.0
Q2 12:27
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 7 yds to the WVU 46
+0.3
Q2 11:46
Jahiem White run for no gain to the WVU 46
0.0
Q2 11:03
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
+0.3
Q2 10:46
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 46 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
-11.5
Q2 10:46
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 6 yds to the WVU 31
+1.7
Q2 10:20
Jahiem White run for 16 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 9:53
Jahiem White run for 2 yds to the WVU 49
+0.3
Q2 9:09
West Virginia Penalty, False Start (Nick Malone) to the WVU 44
0.0
Q2 8:51
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 19 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:15
Jahiem White run for 4 yds to the MEM 33
+1.0
Q2 7:28
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 33 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+7.7
Q2 7:28
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 29
-2.6
Q2 6:55
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 8 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:18
Mario Anderson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 36
-0.4
Q2 5:43
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 2 yds to the MEM 38
+0.1
Q2 5:02
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 25 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q2 4:53
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
-0.1
Q2 4:48
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 10 yds to the WVU 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:01
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the WVU 23
0.0
Q2 3:19
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 24
-0.5
Q2 2:40
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 2:30
Tristian Vandenberg 42 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
Q2 2:28
Garrett Greene pass complete to Ric'Darious Farmer for 6 yds to the WVU 31
+2.4
Q2 2:04
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 13 yds to the WVU 44 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout West Virginia, clock 02:00
-1.5
Q2 2:00
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:44
Garrett Greene run for 56 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+11.4
Q2 1:42
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 29
-3.4
Q2 1:19
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:13
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 35 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST down West Virginia Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MULBAH, Fatorma enforced (Fatorma Mulbah) to the WVU 21 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 1:04
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVU 18
-1.1
Q2 1:01
Timeout Memphis, clock 01:01
-2.0
Q2 0:55
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Henigan pass to Demeer Blankumsee for Two-Point Conversion)
-10.0
Q2 0:51
Garrett Greene run for 7 yds to the WVU 32
+1.9
Q2 0:33
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 23 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:27
Timeout West Virginia, clock 00:27
+1.0
Q2 0:27
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 11 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:16
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
+0.3
Q2 0:12
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 0:08
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 6 yds to the MEM 28
0.0
Q2 0:04
Timeout West Virginia, clock 00:04
-0.3
Q2 0:00
Michael Hayes II 46 yd FG GOOD
+4.1
Q3 15:00
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 48 yds to the WVU 27 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 14:32
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVU 22
-2.0
Q3 14:02
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the WVU 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:24
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the WVU 15
0.0
Q3 12:44
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 12:41
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 9 yds to the WVU 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:01
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVU 3
-1.2
Q3 11:10
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
-7.8
Q3 11:07
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 8 yds to the WVU 33
+3.2
Q3 10:47
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:26
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 20 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:06
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
+0.4
Q3 10:05
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 12 yds to the MEM 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:27
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 26
0.0
Q3 8:48
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 6 yds to the MEM 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 8:26
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 15
0.0
Q3 8:01
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 10 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:15
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+6.3
Q3 7:10
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
-3.2
Q3 7:10
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 12 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:29
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the MEM 42
0.0
Q3 5:48
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the MEM 45
-0.7
Q3 5:04
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 4:57
Joshua Sloan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 10
+0.1
Q3 4:51
(04:51) DONALDSON JR, CJ rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the WVU16 (WATTS, AJ), out of bounds, clock 04:47. PENALTY WVU Holding on WILLIAMS IV, Johnny enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the WVU10 to the WVU5 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+2.3
Q3 4:41
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVU 9
0.0
Q3 4:04
Garrett Greene pass complete to Ric'Darious Farmer for 3 yds to the WVU 12
+1.0
Q3 3:27
Garrett Greene run for 9 yds to the WVU 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 2:58
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 13 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 2:21
Garrett Greene run for 8 yds to the WVU 42
-0.3
Q3 1:55
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 1:48
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVU 39
0.0
Q3 1:09
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 8 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:34
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 0:28
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd to the WVU 48
0.0
Q4 14:59
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 37 yds to the MEM 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:27
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 7 yds to the MEM 8
+0.9
Q4 13:54
(13:54) QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the MEM5 (MARSH, Kourtlan), out of bounds, clock 13:51. PENALTY WVU Holding on RIMAC, Tomas enforced 10 yards from the MEM8 to the MEM18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-0.5
Q4 13:31
(13:31) GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CLEMENT, Hudson thrown to the MEM0, clock 13:25. PENALTY MEM Holding on ROSS, Davion enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the MEM18 to the MEM9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q4 13:25
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for no gain to the MEM 9
0.0
Q4 13:05
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 6 yds to the MEM 3
0.0
Q4 12:45
Timeout Memphis, clock 12:45
-0.7
Q4 12:45
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 2 yds to the MEM 1
0.0
Q4 12:05
Timeout West Virginia, clock 12:05
-1.8
Q4 12:02
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+15.9
Q4 11:53
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 89 yds to the WVU 1 for a 1ST down
-10.9
Q4 10:49
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
-9.9
Q4 10:43
(10:43) QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the WVU39 (RUBIN, Greg), out of bounds, clock 10:42. PENALTY Before the snap, WVU Illegal Shift on FOX, Preston enforced 5 yards from the WVU25 to the WVU20. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+4.0
Q4 10:24
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 2 yds to the WVU 22
0.0
Q4 9:45
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jarel Williams for 17 yds to the WVU 39 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 9:25
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 4 yds to the WVU 43
+0.2
Q4 8:52
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 13 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 8:08
Garrett Greene pass incomplete
+0.3
Q4 8:00
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 2 yds to the MEM 42
0.0
Q4 7:20
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 27 yds to the MEM 15 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q4 6:51
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 11
-1.4
Q4 6:07
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 5 yds to the MEM 6
0.0
Q4 5:25
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:01
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 1
0.0
Q4 4:17
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+15.6
Q4 4:11
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 32
-13.1
Q4 3:30
Seth Henigan run for 10 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:45
Mario Anderson Jr. run for no gain to the MEM 42
-1.2
Q4 2:00
Timeout West Virginia, clock 02:00
-0.3
Q4 2:00
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 19 yds to the WVU 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:49
Mario Anderson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVU 41
-0.8
Q4 1:46
Timeout West Virginia, clock 01:46
+0.1
Q4 1:46
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the WVU 34
0.0
Q4 1:39
Timeout West Virginia, clock 01:39
-0.8
Q4 1:37
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVU 31
0.0
Q4 0:56
Timeout Memphis, clock 00:56
-1.2
Q4 0:56
Tristian Vandenberg 50 yd FG MISSED
0.0
Q4 0:45
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 23 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST down
+7.0
Q4 0:43
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 5 yds to the MEM 41
+0.2
Q4 0:41
Garrett Greene run for 4 yds to the MEM 37
+0.4
Q4 0:17
Garrett Greene pass intercepted Elijah Herring return for 5 yds to the MEM 21
-0.6
Q4 0:08
(00:08) [SG] Kneel down by TEAM at MEM18 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.
-6.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:02
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q4 4:17
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+15.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:11
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 32
-13.1
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com