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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:22 · Bert Auburn 42 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 13:54: DeAndre Moore Jr. 41 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +25.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · Q4 4:32: Peyton Woodring 21 Yd Field Goal — UGA win probability +17.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:18: Bert Auburn 37 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +36.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Bert Auburn 32 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +16.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Trevor Etienne 4 Yd Run — UGA win probability +59.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 9 of 9UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 9:27UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.7%average punt
- Q1 5:17TEX 4th & 12 at UGA 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snapGo for it58.5%−0.422% to convertField goalTheir call58.9%70% to makePunt57.4%−1.5average punt
- Q1 2:46UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it38.7%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%average punt
- Q2 13:06TEX 4th & 1 at UGA 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.1%71% to convertField goal59.9%−1.260% to makePunt57.3%−3.8average punt
- Q2 10:22TEX 4th & 9 at UGA 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call60.8%68% to makePunt57.2%−3.5average punt
- Q2 6:41UGA 4th & 5 at TEX 26, down 6Close callKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snapGo for it35.0%41% to convertField goalTheir call34.8%−0.164% to makePunt30.0%−5.0average punt
- Q2 4:36TEX 4th & 10 at UGA 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snapGo for it58.4%−0.728% to convertField goalTheir call59.0%68% to makePunt54.7%−4.4average punt
- Q2 3:37UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snapGo for it41.6%−0.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%average punt
- Q2 0:39TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snapGo for it54.6%−2.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.9%average punt
- Q3 8:53TEX 4th & 20 at TEX 28, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it43.9%−4.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.5%average punt
- Q3 4:56TEX 4th & 16 at UGA 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snapGo for it41.5%−2.516% to convertField goalTheir call44.0%49% to makePunt42.5%−1.5average punt
- Q3 2:23UGA 4th & 3 at TEX 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.2%50% to convertField goal59.8%−1.586% to makePunt46.1%−15.1average punt
- Q3 0:16UGA 4th & 6 at TEX 6, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snapGo for it60.5%−0.631% to convertField goalTheir call61.1%91% to makePunt46.2%−14.8average punt
- Q4 11:00UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 30, tiedClose callWent for it · 43.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.0%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt43.5%average punt
- Q4 4:32UGA 4th & 3 at TEX 3, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snapGo for it51.2%44% to convertField goalTheir call46.6%−4.793% to makePunt20.1%−31.2average punt
- Q4 1:19TEX 4th & 3 at UGA 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt15.9%−9.7average punt
- Q4 0:18TEX 4th & 15 at UGA 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snapGo for it16.9%−24.715% to convertField goalTheir call41.6%77% to makePunt11.2%−30.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 13:54TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.9%97% to makeGo for two52.7%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEXDrive 1INT8 plays · 48 yds · 3:2957% → 58%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
57.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds to the TEX 17Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+22
57.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 22 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
57.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 19 yds to the UGA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
57.5%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Jalon Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 43Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-1
57.5%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Daylen Everette return for 1 yd to the UGA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3343% → 43%
TEXDrive 3FG10 plays · 64 yds · 4:0357% → 58%
Q1 8:04
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+50
56.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 50 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+22
57.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 22 yds to the UGA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
58.4%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Helm, Gunnar, PENALTY TEX pass interference (Bond, Isaiah) 15 yards to the UGA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 25
OPP 36
-2
57.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1441% → 41%
Q1 4:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
58.9%
Beck, Carson pass incomplete to Smith, Arian, PENALTY TEX pass interference (Muhammad, Malik) 15 yards to the UGA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UGA.Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+6
59.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 6 yds to the UGA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5FG14 plays · 56 yds · 7:0859% → 64%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
58.8%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Chaz Chambliss for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+32
58.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 32 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
60.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 5 yds to the UGA 32Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
60.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 4 yds to the UGA 28Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
61.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the UGA 22 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Bond) to the UGA 32Similar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 17
OPP 32
-3
61.0%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Warren Brinson for a loss of 3 yards to the UGA 35Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 20
OPP 35
-6
60.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for a loss of 6 yards to the UGA 41Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 26
OPP 41
+17
59.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 17 yds to the UGA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:3738% → 42%
Q2 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
62.1%
Etienne, Trevor rush for 2 yards to the UGA29, PENALTY TEX offside (Burke, Ethan) 5 yards to the UGA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
61.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ben Yurosek for 19 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+10
61.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 10 yds to the TEX 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7MISSED FG10 plays · 51 yds · 2:0058% → 58%
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+35
57.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 20 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST down Georgia Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Smael Mondon Jr.) to the UGA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
60.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 16 yds to the UGA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4045% → 43%
Q2 3:37
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+52
56.7%
Brett Thorson punt for 52 yds , Silas Bolden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 2:3758% → 57%
Q2 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
57.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds to the TEX 25Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+7
57.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 7 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
58.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 11 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-10
58.8%
Ewers, Quinn rush for 5 yards to the TEX46, PENALTY TEX holding (Williams, Cameron) 10 yards to the TEX31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
57.1%
Michael Kern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FUMBLE7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3245% → 50%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
55.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 6 yds to the UGA 32Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
55.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 6 yds to the UGA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
53.6%
Beck, Carson pass pass intended for Evans III, Anthony intercepted by Mukuba, Andrew at the TEX25, Mukuba, Andrew return 38 yards to the UGA37, PENALTY TEX pass interference (Holmes, Gavin) 15 yards to the TEX47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UGA.Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
50.3%
Beck, Carson pass pass intended for Lovett, Dominic intercepted by Hill Jr., Anthony at the TEX35, Hill Jr., Anthony return 14 yards to the TEX49, PENALTY TEX offside 5 yards to the TEX42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+23
49.9%
Carson Beck sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 15 yards to the UGA 20 Carson Beck fumbled, forced by Trey Moore, recovered by TEX Anthony Hill Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 23 yds to the UGA 20 , return for 0 yards to the UGA 20 Barryn Sorrell fumbled, recovered by UGA Dylan Fairchild , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2846% → 57%
Q3 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+18
53.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Arian Smith for 18 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
51.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+14
49.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 14 yds to the TEX 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 1:1549% → 46%
UGADrive 13PUNT5 plays · -21 yds · 1:4054% → 52%
Q3 7:45
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+7
47.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 7 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-16
46.2%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 16 yards to the UGA 17 Gunner Stockton fumbled, forced by Colin Simmons, recovered by UGASimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 31
OWN 12
+26
47.9%
Brett Thorson punt for 53 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 26 yds to the UGA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14MISSED FG5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3551% → 43%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
51.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 12 yds to the UGA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
53.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for no gain to the UGA 27Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-6
50.4%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Damon Wilson II for a loss of 6 yards to the UGA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG9 plays · 61 yds · 4:2057% → 70%
Q3 2:23
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+8
38.2%
Cash Jones run for 4 yds to the TEX 8 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (Vernon Broughton) to the TEX 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1133% → 62%
UGADrive 17FG17 plays · 72 yds · 8:3847% → 73%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
53.4%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Michael Taaffe for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 23Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
53.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 9 yds to the UGA 32Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
53.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 30Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
56.2%
Drew Bobo pass complete to Arian Smith for 9 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Arian Smith for no gain to the TEX 48Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
48.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Arian Smith for 7 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+3
48.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 3 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
47.6%
Anthony Evans III run for 5 yds to the TEX 33 Anthony Evans III fumbled, forced by David Gbenda, recovered by UGA Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
43.3%
Nate Frazier run for 14 yds to the TEX 4 Nate Frazier fumbled, forced by Andrew Mukuba, recovered by UGA Arian Smith for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18INT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5238% → 34%
UGADrive 19INT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0180% → 82%
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-10
18.4%
Stockton, Gunner pass complete to Etienne, Trevor for 5 yards to the TEX21, PENALTY UGA holding (Wilson, Jared) 10 yards to the TEX36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-17
18.4%
Gunner Stockton pass intercepted Jahdae Barron return for 17 yds to the TEX 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20FG17 plays · 47 yds · 2:0733% → 55%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
32.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 11 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+10
31.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 10 yds to the UGA 48Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+4
31.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 4 yds to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
34.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 9 yds to the UGA 35Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
36.6%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Wingo, Ryan, PENALTY UGA pass interference (Everette, Daylen) 15 yards to the UGA14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEX.Similar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
37.8%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Mykel Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the UGA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21END OF GAME2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FG9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0066% → 79%
UGADrive 23TD6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
71.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 9 yds to the TEX 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-2
71.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
76.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 4 yds to the TEX 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Trevor Etienne 4 Yd Run
-59.2
FG · Q4 0:18
Bert Auburn 37 Yd Field Goal
+36.3
TD · Q4 13:54
DeAndre Moore Jr. 41 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+25