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PSU

Penn State 37 at Oregon 45

ORE
2024 · Week 15 · Dec 7, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:27 · Ryan Barker 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+5.2Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential+1.7Pregame prior+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:05: Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORE win probability +10.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:49: Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:53: Drew Allar run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:36: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORE win probability +10.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:17: Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:30PSU 4th & 4 at ORE 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35ORE 4th & 1 at PSU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:48PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:20ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:54ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:17PSU 4th & 1 at ORE 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−1.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07ORE 4th & 5 at PSU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:27PSU 4th & 5 at ORE 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−8.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:14PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:40ORE 4th & 5 at PSU 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:51ORE 4th & 2 at PSU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−2.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:41PSU 4th & 10 at ORE 14, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:11ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:40ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:21ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:24PSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:04ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:05ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:49PSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:53PSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:36ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:17PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:28ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:41PSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:0855% → 57%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
54.5%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 25Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+7
54.5%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the ORE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.7%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the ORE 36Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+17
54.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
55.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 3 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+21
55.2%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Coziah Izzard) to the PSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
55.4%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+28
56.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 28 yds for a TD Oregon Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PSU 8 (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
57.3%
Oregon Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0644% → 44%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 4 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
56.6%
Tyler Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 30 Tyler Warren fumbled, recovered by PSU Nicholas Singleton Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
57.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
57.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 41 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
56.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Liam CliffordSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
56.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 6 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
57.1%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Luke ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
55.9%
Ryan Barker 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0256% → 62%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
56.2%
Noah Whittington run for 26 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
57.2%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
57.3%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the PSU 40Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
57.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Patrick HerbertSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+16
56.9%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the PSU 39 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
57.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the PSU 18Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+5
58.0%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the PSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
58.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the PSU 6Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+4
58.3%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the PSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5139% → 45%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 13 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.7%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
60.8%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 33Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
61.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+16
61.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 16 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
60.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 9
50
+28
60.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 28 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
55.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2057% → 66%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.3%
Penn State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Noah WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+24
57.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 24 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
59.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Amin Vanover and Dvon J-Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+31
58.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 31 yds to the PSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
59.5%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the PSU 3Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
59.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 4Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0936% → 34%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-15
63.8%
Penn State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Olaivavega Ioane) to the PSU 16Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
64.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+8
65.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 8 yds to the PSU 24Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
66.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2567% → 67%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
66.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jordan JamesSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
66.4%
Jordan James run for a loss of 3 yards to the ORE 28Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+6
66.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 6 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
66.6%
Ross James punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1034% → 34%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
66.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-24
66.4%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Dontae Manning return for 24 yds to the PSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.6%
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1025% → 34%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
75.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Khalil DinkinsSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
76.2%
Allar, Drew pass incomplete to Warren, Tyler, PENALTY ORE pass interference (Lopa, Kingston) 4 yards to the PSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PSU.Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
75.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 24 yds to the ORE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
74.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 6 yds to the ORE 38Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
74.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+17
75.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 17 yds to the ORE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
74.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 22Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+22
65.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5270% → 69%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Noah WhittingtonSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
68.7%
Ross James punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:5832% → 44%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
68.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 15 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
67.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ORE 48Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
67.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+8
70.0%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the ORE 40Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
70.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
69.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 19 yds to the ORE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
69.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the ORE 10Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
70.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 3 yds to the ORE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
55.6%
Drew Allar run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 1:3962% → 69%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.5%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+25
62.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 25 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
64.3%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
65.2%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
65.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
65.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
66.6%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the PSU 18Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
66.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+4
65.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 4 yds to the PSU 14Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
68.5%
Atticus Sappington 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:2932% → 31%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
67.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 3 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.5%
Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
67.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
66.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
66.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
66.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds to the ORE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
64.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the ORE 27Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
64.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+4
66.7%
Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the ORE 23Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
68.8%
Ryan Barker 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:4573% → 87%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
72.9%
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the ORE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
73.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
73.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 17 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 1 yd to the PSU 48Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+48
87.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1617% → 16%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 9 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
81.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
83.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
82.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
82.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
83.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 49 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for no gain to the ORE 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:3087% → 91%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
86.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the ORE 18Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+15
87.1%
Noah Whittington run for 15 yds to the ORE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
87.9%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
89.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Patrick HerbertSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+8
88.5%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
50
0
89.4%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
50
+4
89.5%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+1
91.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Noah Whittington for 1 yd to the PSU 45Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
91.3%
Luke Dunne punt for 42 yds, downed at the PSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 97 yds · 2:1612% → 23%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+18
88.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 6 for a 1ST down Oregon Penalty, Personal Foul (Derrick Harmon) to the PSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+32
88.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 32 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
86.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+26
88.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 26 yds to the ORE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
86.8%
Beau Pribula run for 18 yds to the ORE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3185% → 96%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 24 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by ORE Dillon GabrielSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
84.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
84.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 11 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
86.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 38Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+3
86.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+16
85.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 16 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
87.8%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
88.3%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
88.4%
Jordan James run for no gain to the PSU 35Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+20
87.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 20 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
90.4%
Jordan James run for 12 yds to the PSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.2%
Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:375% → 11%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
95.0%
Drew Allar run for 22 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
94.6%
Beau Pribula sacked by Derrick Harmon for a loss of 6 yards to the PSU 41Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+16
95.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 16 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
95.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for no gain to the ORE 43Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+13
95.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 13 yds to the ORE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
95.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+13
95.6%
Drew Allar run for 13 yds to the ORE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
95.7%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
96.5%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the ORE 14Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
96.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+14
88.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2594% → 94%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.7%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the ORE 26Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
94.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Ross James punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:069% → 11%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
91.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
88.8%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Nikko Reed return for no gain to the ORE 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:1896% → 97%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
95.8%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the ORE 23Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+2
97.0%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the ORE 25Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the ORE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 31Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:53
Drew Allar run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 10:05
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q3 7:36
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com