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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Nolan Hauser 56 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 11:04: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +11.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:23: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +12.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:22: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 20 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +13.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:16: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +44.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Nolan Hauser 56 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +35.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:41SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.8%average punt
- Q2 14:53CLEM 4th & 4 at SMU 25, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snapGo for it54.4%47% to convertField goalTheir call53.9%−0.566% to makePunt48.9%−5.5average punt
- Q2 11:32SMU 4th & 14 at CLEM 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snapGo for it42.8%−0.619% to convertField goalTheir call43.4%42% to makePunt43.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:16CLEM 4th & 7 at SMU 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.4%average punt
- Q2 7:37SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 17, down 14Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it38.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:22CLEM 4th & 4 at SMU 25, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snapGo for it62.8%47% to convertField goalTheir call62.2%−0.766% to makePunt56.0%−6.9average punt
- Q2 3:25SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 47, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it33.3%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q2 1:47CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 10, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snapGo for it71.3%−1.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.5%average punt
- Q2 0:35SMU 4th & 16 at CLEM 41, down 17Close callPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.2%−0.716% to convertField goal29.9%32% to makePuntTheir call29.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 13:34CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 33, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snapGo for it73.0%−2.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.3%average punt
- Q3 6:02CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 48, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snapGo for it66.1%−3.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%average punt
- Q3 5:18SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snapGo for it26.1%−2.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.2%average punt
- Q4 11:51CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snapGo for it72.8%−4.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q4 11:08SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 49, down 10Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 10:13CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snapGo for it79.5%−2.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q4 6:56SMU 4th & 13 at CLEM 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snapGo for it13.6%−2.120% to convertField goalTheir call15.7%58% to makePunt10.4%−5.4average punt
- Q4 4:05CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it83.6%−0.937% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:35CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.7%97% to makeGo for two41.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:47CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.9%97% to makeGo for two43.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:05SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.2%97% to makeGo for two55.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:28CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.6%97% to makeGo for two49.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:04SMU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.1%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:23CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.4%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:22SMU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.6%97% to makeGo for two22.3%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:16SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.2%97% to makeGo for two41.5%−7.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSMUDrive 1FUMBLE4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3653% → 53%
Q1 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-8
52.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 33 Kevin Jennings fumbled, forced by T.J. Parker, recovered by CLEM T.J. Parker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD2 plays · 33 yds · 0:2047% → 48%
SMUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4552% → 52%
Q1 12:41
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+21
52.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 40 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 21 yds to the SMU 45 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4348% → 50%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
51.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
51.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 12 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3950% → 52%
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
49.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
50.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 15 yds to the CLEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
50.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 1 yd to the CLEM 47Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
49.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 10 yds to the CLEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2650% → 56%
Q1 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+15
49.9%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Williams, Antonio, PENALTY SMU roughing passer 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+43
44.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 43 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7INT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:0344% → 45%
CLEMDrive 8MISSED FG7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1357% → 59%
SMUDrive 9MISSED FG8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0843% → 39%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
43.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 19 yds to the CLEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
43.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 9 yds to the CLEM 34Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-6
43.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the CLEM 38Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 16
OPP 38
-1
41.7%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Cade Denhoff for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1062% → 64%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for no gain to the CLEM 36Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
37.2%
Cade Klubnik run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line Cade Klubnik fumbled, forced by Ahmaad Moses, recovered by CLEM Jake Briningstool , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2937% → 35%
Q2 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+27
35.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 41 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12FG8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0466% → 72%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
32.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4732% → 31%
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
32.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14FUMBLE4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2873% → 77%
Q2 1:47
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
23.2%
Aidan Swanson punt for 49 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 41 Roderick Daniels Jr. fumbled, recovered by SMUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT12 plays · 18 yds · 1:0730% → 27%
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
29.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
29.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 6 yds to the CLEM 39Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
29.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 4 yds to the CLEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
30.5%
Jennings, Kevin pass incomplete to Dixon, Moochie, PENALTY SMU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the CLEMSON40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16END OF HALF5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1279% → 77%
CLEMDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1776% → 76%
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+16
23.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 16 yds to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD7 plays · 74 yds · 2:2024% → 37%
Q3 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+12
23.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 12 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
24.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
25.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 37 yds to the CLEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
37.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT11 plays · 37 yds · 4:4667% → 70%
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+12
33.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 12 yds to the CLEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
32.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 8 yds to the CLEM 35Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
31.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 15 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
30.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-1
29.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-10
29.3%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Jahfari Harvey and Cameron Robertson for a loss of 10 yards to the CLEM 48Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
30.3%
Aidan Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3728% → 26%
CLEMDrive 21TD10 plays · 58 yds · 4:5074% → 91%
Q3 4:25
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+32
25.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 32 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
23.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 10 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD8 plays · 61 yds · 1:4613% → 26%
Q4 14:50
4TH & 7
OWN 4
-48
10.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a loss of 48 yards to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
13.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 30 yds to the CLEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
25.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 20 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1676% → 77%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 2 yds to the CLEM 27Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
22.3%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 8 yards to the CLEM 19Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+9
23.0%
Aidan Swanson punt for 45 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 9 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3723% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4781% → 82%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
19.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 2 yds to the CLEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26FG10 plays · 21 yds · 3:0819% → 23%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
50
+8
19.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 8 yds to the CLEM 42Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
20.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 6 yds to the CLEM 20Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-10
18.2%
Jennings, Kevin pass complete to Smith, Key'Shawn for 1 yard to the CLEMSON24, PENALTY SMU holding 10 yards to the CLEMSON35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+6
16.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 6 yds to the CLEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4581% → 85%
SMUDrive 28TD17 plays · 79 yds · 3:4522% → 66%
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
21.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
20.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 7 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
22.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
21.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 7 yds to the CLEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
21.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for no gain to the CLEM 40Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
21.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 13 yds to the CLEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
23.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 4 yds to the CLEM 12Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+8
21.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 8 yds to the CLEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:16
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+44.3
FG · Q4 0:00
Nolan Hauser 56 yd FG GOOD
-35.5
TD · Q4 13:22
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 20 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+13.6