2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadEIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreEIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:26 · Jacob Horvath punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:37: Pierce Holley pass complete to Eli Mirza for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Schiller KICK) — EIU win probability +3.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: EIU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:56: Pierce Holley run for 6 yds to the NU 49 — EIU win probability +3.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: EIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:14: Joseph Himon II 32 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick) — NU win probability +4.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:14: Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — NU win probability +3.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:39: Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7EIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 10:50NU 4th & 1 at EIU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.9%70% to convertField goal93.7%−0.232% to makePunt93.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:26EIU 4th & 2 at EIU 49, tiedClose callPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.6%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:48NU 4th & 10 at NU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q1 6:19EIU 4th & 8 at EIU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.4%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q2 13:12EIU 4th & 4 at NU 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.4%48% to convertField goal8.0%−0.427% to makePunt8.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:41NU 4th & 9 at NU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it88.0%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.3%average punt
- Q2 8:43EIU 4th & 5 at EIU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.0%average punt
- Q2 6:43NU 4th & 1 at EIU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt86.7%−0.9average punt
- Q2 4:02NU 4th & 3 at EIU 24, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snapGo for it86.4%52% to convertField goalTheir call86.1%−0.368% to makePunt83.9%−2.5average punt
- Q2 1:47EIU 4th & 7 at NU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snapGo for it17.4%−0.335% to convertField goalTheir call17.8%77% to makePunt14.5%−3.3average punt
- Q3 14:03EIU 4th & 8 at EIU 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q3 8:18NU 4th & 10 at EIU 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%60% to makePunt91.3%−2.6average punt
- Q4 11:06EIU 4th & 12 at NU 21, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−0.822% to convertField goal3.0%74% to makePunt0.2%−2.7average punt
- Q4 5:29EIU 4th & 9 at EIU 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 1:55NU 4th & 6 at EIU 44, up 24Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%40% to convertField goal99.4%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.5%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3EIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 1:22NU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:37EIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.8%97% to makeGo for two10.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:14NU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:58NU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNUDrive 1DOWNS10 plays · 39 yds · 4:0295% → 94%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
94.7%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 33 Cam Porter fumbled, recovered by NU Caleb TiernanSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+17
94.6%
Joseph Himon II run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
50
-5
94.5%
Jack Lausch run to the 50 yard line Northwestern Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NU 45Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+12
94.4%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 12 yds to the EIU 43Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
94.3%
Jack Lausch pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz, broken up by Zay GentrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:196% → 6%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
93.9%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Terrance Gipson for 8 yds to the EIU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3094% → 93%
EIUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:257% → 7%
NUDrive 5TD12 plays · 80 yds · 4:5393% → 93%
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-6
92.7%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 6TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:417% → 13%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
92.6%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Cooper Willman for 13 yds to the EIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
92.4%
Pierce Holley pass complete to CJ Nelson for a loss of 2 yards to the EIU 36Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
92.3%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Cooper Willman for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
91.1%
Pierce Holley pass incomplete to Eli Mirza for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Defensive holding (Devin Turner) to the NU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
90.7%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Cooper Willman for 9 yds to the NU 19Similar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
87.5%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Eli Mirza for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Schiller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4590% → 88%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.6%
Jack Lausch pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz, broken up by Luke WagnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5112% → 12%
NUDrive 9MISSED FG10 plays · 32 yds · 4:3289% → 87%
EIUDrive 10MISSED FG7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0917% → 18%
Q2 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
82.4%
Pierce Holley pass incomplete to Terrance Gipson, broken up by Evan Smith Northwestern Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the EIU 46Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+32
82.8%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Anthony Manaves for 32 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD8 plays · 80 yds · 0:3484% → 91%
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
84.4%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 4 yds to the NU 28Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+19
83.7%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Marshall Lang for 19 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Jack Lausch pass incomplete to Calvin Johnson II, broken up by Moses AlexanderSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
85.1%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 11 yds to the EIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
85.8%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 10 yds to the EIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:467% → 6%
Q3 14:03
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
93.8%
Drew Schiller punt for 49 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the NU 34 Northwestern Penalty, Offensive holding (Braydon Brus) to the NU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FG9 plays · 64 yds · 5:3294% → 94%
EIUDrive 15INT4 plays · 11 yds · 1:247% → 7%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.9%
Pierce Holley pass incomplete to Jordan Sprycha, broken up by Xander MuellerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD7 plays · 42 yds · 4:0795% → 97%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
95.0%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the EIU 28Similar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
95.3%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 15 yds to the EIU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.9%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 51 yds · 6:234% → 3%
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+19
96.3%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Cooper Willman for 19 yds to the EIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
96.1%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Cooper Willman for 8 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
96.3%
Pierce Holley sacked by Michael Kilbane for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 48Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+9
96.5%
Pierce Holley pass complete to MJ Flowers for 9 yds to the NU 39Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+8
96.7%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Cooper Willman for 8 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
96.2%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Terrance Gipson for 12 yds to the NU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-8
96.2%
Pierce Holley sacked by Dylan Roberts for a loss of 8 yards to the NU 27Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+6
96.5%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Terrance Gipson for 6 yds to the NU 21Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
96.9%
Pierce Holley pass incomplete to Terrance Gipson, broken up by Theran JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD7 plays · 79 yds · 4:0397% → 99%
Q4 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+46
97.4%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 46 yds to the EIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
97.7%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 16 yds to the EIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
97.8%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 9 yds to the EIU 10Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Marshall Lang for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:241% → 1%
NUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 3:3199% → 100%
Q4 4:45
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+20
99.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 20 yds to the EIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 21Uncategorized3 plays · 9 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Joseph Himon II 32 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)
+4.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:56
Pierce Holley run for 6 yds to the NU 49
-3.3
TD · Q2 10:37
Pierce Holley pass complete to Eli Mirza for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Schiller KICK)
-3.1