2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadEIU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreEIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:59 · Jacob Horvath punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:15: Pat Bryant 15 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:43: Tanner Arkin 5 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:10: David Olano 26 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:13: Pat Bryant 28 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:30: Malik Elzy 34 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5EIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:37ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q1 2:32EIU 4th & 6 at EIU 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q2 10:10ILL 4th & 8 at EIU 8, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call94.6%90% to makePunt92.9%−1.7average punt
- Q2 8:38EIU 4th & 8 at EIU 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q2 6:31ILL 4th & 9 at EIU 44, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.5%−<0.132% to convertField goal95.2%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q2 2:29EIU 4th & 7 at EIU 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 0:06EIU 4th & 1 at EIU 34, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 11:44EIU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 3:18EIU 4th & 8 at ILL 39, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%34% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.136% to makePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:59EIU 4th & 10 at EIU 25, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:15ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 43, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 8:04EIU 4th & 6 at EIU 42, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:53ILL 4th & 11 at EIU 40, up 45Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%27% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 4:15ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:43ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:13ILL Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:30ILL Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:04ILL Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:51ILL Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartILLDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1796% → 95%
Q1 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
95.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cooper Willman at the EIU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 2FUMBLE9 plays · 60 yds · 3:065% → 6%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
95.1%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Flowers,MJ rush middle for 2 yards loss to the EIU15 (Bailey,Matthew) PENALTY ILL Offside (Jacas,Gabe) 5 yards from EIU17 to EIU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
94.3%
Jay Pearson run for 5 yds to the ILL 23 Jay Pearson fumbled, recovered by ILL Seth ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD12 plays · 77 yds · 5:0394% → 94%
Q1 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
93.6%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Gesky,Josh) 5 yards from EIU10 to EIU15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:276% → 6%
Q1 2:32
4TH & 6
OWN 9
+30
93.9%
Jacob Horvath punt for 46 yds , Mac Resetich returns for 30 yds to the EIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD4 plays · 25 yds · 1:4494% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 6INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:056% → 6%
ILLDrive 7FG11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3895% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:215% → 5%
ILLDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5596% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 10INT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:335% → 5%
Q2 5:33
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Holley,Pierce pass incomplete short middle to Mirza,Eli thrown to EIU29 PENALTY ILL Offside (Coleman,Seth) 5 yards from EIU25 to EIU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
95.1%
Pierce Holley pass intercepted Torrie Cox Jr. return for no gain to the EIU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3396% → 98%
EIUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:383% → 3%
Q2 2:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
97.2%
PENALTY EIU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from EIU33 to EIU28. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD5 plays · 67 yds · 0:4698% → 99%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
97.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Malik Elzy to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q2 0:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.3%
Jacob Horvath punt for 45 yds , Mac Resetich returns for 4 yds to the ILL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:111% → 0%
Q3 13:51
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+5
99.5%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Holley,Pierce sacked for loss of 2 yards to the EIU30 (Jacas,Gabe) PENALTY ILL Offside (Bryant,Alec) 5 yards from EIU32 to EIU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 7
50
0
99.6%
Jacob Horvath punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mac Resetich at the ILL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD10 plays · 86 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+15
99.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for a 1ST down Eastern Illinois Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Joel Barrows) to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.7%
(09:36) Shotgun Laughery,Aidan rush middle for 0 yards to the EIU30 (Porter,Phoenix) PENALTY ILL Holding (Davis,J.C.) 10 yards from EIU30 to EIU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+11
99.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for a 1ST down Eastern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Coates) to the EIU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 18FUMBLE12 plays · 62 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q3 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
99.8%
(06:04) No Huddle Holley,Pierce rush middle for 1 yard gain to the EIU35 (Briggs Jr.,Dennis) PENALTY EIU False Start (Tanelus,Elkhanan) 5 yards from EIU34 to EIU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+15
99.8%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Holley,Pierce pass incomplete deep left to Smith,DeAirious thrown to ILL25 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Patterson,Kaleb) 15 yards from EIU44 to ILL41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
99.8%
Pierce Holley sacked by Joe Barna for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 46Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Pierce Holley pass complete to DeAirious Smith DeAirious Smith fumbled, recovered by ILL Kaleb PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD9 plays · 87 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
99.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for a 1ST down Eastern Illinois Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Joel Barrows) to the EIU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:400% → 0%
ILLDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 10:15
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cooper Willman at the EIU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
Jacob Horvath punt for 48 yds , Mac Resetich returns for 4 yds to the ILL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT11 plays · 46 yds · 5:52100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cooper Willman at the EIU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · 22 yds · 1:460% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:13
Pat Bryant 28 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)
+1.5
TD · Q1 0:43
Tanner Arkin 5 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q2 1:30
Malik Elzy 34 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)
+1.2