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USF

South Florida 28 at Rice 35

RICE
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+21.3RICE 83.5%Tim Horn 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 27 · Q2 0:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:12 · Tim Horn 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense+21.0Pregame prior−11.4Score differential+14.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9Garbage-time factor+6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:32: E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 23 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +15.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:12: Tim Horn 25 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +21.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:22: Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 16 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +17.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:26: Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman 33 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (E.J. Warner Pass to Matt Sykes for Two-Point Conversion) — RICE win probability +14.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:25: Israel Carter pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 32 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +15.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 5:39USF 4th & 4 at RICE 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:32RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:22RICE 4th & 7 at USF 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49USF 4th & 5 at USF 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:32RICE 4th & 10 at USF 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21USF 4th & 6 at USF 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:15USF 4th & 4 at USF 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:12RICE 4th & 7 at USF 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−8.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:22USF 4th & 3 at RICE 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:21RICE 4th & 16 at USF 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:23USF 4th & 7 at USF 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:50USF 4th & 1 at USF 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:49RICE 4th & 10 at USF 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:13RICE 4th & 8 at USF 30, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:10USF 4th & 6 at USF 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:07RICE 4th & 5 at USF 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:14USF 4th & 6 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:23USF 4th & 2 at RICE 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:21RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:27RICE 4th & 3 at USF 25, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:33RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:14USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:44RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:32RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:22USF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:26RICE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:09USF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:25USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 1:5929% → 31%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
29.0%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 7Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+12
29.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 12 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+36
29.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 36 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
29.9%
Christian Francisco run for 14 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
31.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 31 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1069% → 69%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
31.0%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USF 31Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+42
31.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 42 yds to the RICE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
31.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 8 yds to the RICE 19Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
31.4%
Bryce Archie run for 6 yds to the RICE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
31.6%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the RICE 13Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
31.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 12 yds to the RICE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.0%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the RICE 1Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.2%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the RICE 1Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:1332% → 35%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
32.2%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the USF 38Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+26
32.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 26 yds to the USF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
35.4%
Quinton Jackson run for 12 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:5065% → 64%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 3 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
34.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 29 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST down South Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (AJ Howard) to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.7%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
35.1%
Bryce Archie run for 5 yds to the RICE 48Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
35.0%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the RICE 47Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
35.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5936% → 38%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
36.2%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 12Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
36.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+23
36.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 23 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
37.6%
Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman run for 2 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
38.2%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Onianwa,Ethan) 5 yards from Rice37 to Rice32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
38.0%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+5
37.8%
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
38.0%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1862% → 61%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
38.3%
Bryce Archie run for no gain to the USF 20Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
38.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 6 yds Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen fumbled, recovered by USF Josh PearcySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:3440% → 41%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
40.4%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Drayden DickmannSimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+18
40.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 18 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
41.1%
PENALTY Rice Holding (Giffen,Colin) 10 yards from USF04 to USF14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
41.2%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
40.9%
PENALTY USF Offside (Gooden,Bernard) 5 yards from USF14 to USF09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
41.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Graham WalkerSimilar
Q1 0:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
41.0%
Tim Horn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1359% → 58%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
41.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 3 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.6%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+60
42.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RICE 20 Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Fresch) to the RICE 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:0242% → 43%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
41.5%
PENALTY USF Personal Foul (Blue-Eli,Doug) 15 yards from Rice10 to Rice25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
42.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 30 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
44.1%
Quinton Jackson run for 22 yds to the USF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
44.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kobie CampbellSimilar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
44.1%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Elijah MojarroSimilar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
43.4%
Tim Horn 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0256% → 54%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
44.0%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 21Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
44.6%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Keshaun SingletonSimilar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+6
45.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
45.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RICE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4045% → 76%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.8%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
45.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 17 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
47.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 46Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
57.1%
E.J. Warner run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 4
50
+5
57.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 5 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Quinton JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
58.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 18 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
60.5%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
61.4%
Quinton Jackson run for no gain to the USF 23Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
76.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 23 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5436% → 34%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 2 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
64.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
65.0%
PENALTY Rice Offside (Hargrove,Jalen) 5 yards from USF21 to USF26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
64.7%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
65.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:5479% → 84%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
78.8%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
78.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 5 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
78.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 4 yds to the RICE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
80.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 13 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
80.3%
Christian Francisco run for 2 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
77.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Christian Francisco for 9 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
75.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 19 yds to the USF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
74.9%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 12Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
76.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 5 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
62.2%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Thai Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
83.5%
Tim Horn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0217% → 17%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.9%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.3%
Bryce Archie run for 2 yds to the USF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2515% → 32%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.1%
Bryce Archie run for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-7
84.5%
Bryce Archie sacked by Charlie Looes for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 25Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+52
86.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 52 yds to the RICE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
85.3%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 24Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
85.2%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+8
85.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the RICE 16Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+16
67.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 16 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:4174% → 76%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
74.4%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 49Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
74.9%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+19
72.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 19 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
75.9%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kobie CampbellSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
76.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 17 yds to the USF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
77.0%
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the USF 13Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-8
78.5%
Rice Penalty, Intentional Grounding (E.J. Warner) to the USF 21Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 16
OPP 21
0
77.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for no gain to the USF 21Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 16
OPP 21
+39
76.0%
Tim Horn 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5224% → 22%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
76.0%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
76.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
77.0%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Payten SingletarySimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
77.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RICE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:5378% → 94%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.1%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Drayden DickmannSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
77.9%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Onianwa,Ethan) 5 yards from Rice35 to Rice30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+37
78.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 37 yds to the USF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
94.1%
Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman 33 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (E.J. Warner Pass to Matt Sykes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:238% → 7%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 13 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
91.4%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 39Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
91.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 3 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
92.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 5 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
93.0%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5695% → 94%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-11
95.0%
Rice Penalty, Intentional Grounding (E.J. Warner) to the RICE 43Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 21
OWN 43
+11
93.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 11 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
94.2%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kobie CampbellSimilar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
93.7%
Conor Hunt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
94.3%
Bryce Archie pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2196% → 97%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
95.9%
Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USF 40Similar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 18
OPP 40
+1
96.1%
Christian Francisco run for 1 yd to the USF 39Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+3
96.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 3 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+6
97.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 6 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+7
97.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 7 yds to the USF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:514% → 3%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
96.1%
Bryce Archie sacked by Andrew Awe for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 16Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+11
96.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 11 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
96.6%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to JeyQuan SmithSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
96.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5398% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
97.6%
Dean Connors run for 17 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
97.8%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 36Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+12
98.1%
Dean Connors run for 12 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.4%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 47Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+6
98.5%
E.J. Warner run for 6 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
98.6%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kobie CampbellSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Conor Hunt punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 2:342% → 2%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
97.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
97.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 14 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.9%
Bryce Archie sacked by Joseph Mutombo for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 47 Bryce Archie fumbled, recovered by USF Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+3
98.0%
Bryce Archie run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 6
50
+12
98.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Hardeman for 12 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
98.1%
PENALTY USF Holding (Bowman,Derek) 10 yards from Rice38 to Rice48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 20
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+18
98.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 18 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
98.0%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Joshua HardemanSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
98.1%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:5499% → 100%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.2%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+7
99.2%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 42Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-10
99.4%
Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the RICE 33Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+3
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 3 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+6
99.4%
Christian Francisco run for 6 yds to the RICE 42Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+1
99.5%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 46 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 1 yd to the USF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 1:591% → 7%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
99.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 2
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+26
99.2%
Bryce Archie run for 11 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Arkansas) to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
99.2%
Israel Carter pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 6 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.2%
Israel Carter pass incomplete to Joshua PorterSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
99.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 13 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.1%
Israel Carter run for 2 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
93.4%
Israel Carter pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 28 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28FUMBLE
4 plays · -22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
98.5%
PENALTY Rice Personal Foul (Fresch,Sean) 15 yards from USF47 to Rice38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
98.5%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 7 yards to the RICE 27 Dean Connors fumbled, recovered by USF Immanuel HickmanSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
98.5%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 7 yards to the RICE 42 Dean Connors fumbled, recovered by USF Immanuel HickmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:146% → 23%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
94.1%
Israel Carter pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
78.3%
Israel Carter pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 32 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
77.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 30DOWNS
11 plays · 16 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
96.6%
Christian Francisco run for 8 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
96.5%
Christian Francisco run for 4 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
97.2%
Christian Francisco run for 3 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
97.1%
Christian Francisco run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+2
97.5%
Christian Francisco run for 2 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-3
97.4%
Christian Francisco run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:1514% → 13%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
86.3%
Israel Carter run for 3 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
86.0%
Israel Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+19
87.5%
Israel Carter pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:12
Tim Horn 25 yd FG GOOD
+21.3
TD · Q3 12:22
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 16 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-17.6
TD · Q4 2:25
Israel Carter pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 32 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com