2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreUNT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:03 · Dante Atton punt for 36 yds , Miles Coleman returns for no gain to the UNT 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:19: Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 14 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +0.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- FG · Q1 4:55: Maddux Trujillo 44 Yd Field Goal — TEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:52: Makenzie McGill II 51 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick) — UNT win probability +0.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:46: Evan Simon run for 1 yd for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:08: run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 6 — UNT win probability +18.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 11 of 14UNT made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 12:00UNT 4th & 10 at TEM 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snapGo for it75.0%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call75.1%79% to makePunt74.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:02TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snapGo for it25.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%average punt
- Q1 9:13UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 27, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%average punt
- Q1 8:20TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it25.3%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q1 7:16UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snapGo for it74.4%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.4%average punt
- Q1 4:55TEM 4th & 11 at UNT 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.6%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call25.8%64% to makePunt25.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:20TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 29, down 4Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it29.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:05TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.8%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.4%average punt
- Q2 12:01UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snapGo for it68.8%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.2%average punt
- Q2 10:03TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 26, down 4Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it30.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:50TEM 4th & 5 at UNT 11, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.6%37% to convertField goal31.6%−<0.187% to makePunt26.6%−5.0average punt
- Q2 5:20TEM 4th & 6 at UNT 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call32.3%75% to makePunt27.4%−4.8average punt
- Q2 5:01UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 20, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snapGo for it65.3%−0.927% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.2%average punt
- Q2 2:34UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 33, up 4Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snapGo for it68.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:12UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 32, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it65.8%−1.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.0%average punt
- Q3 10:50TEM 4th & 5 at UNT 42, down 4Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it36.2%42% to convertField goal34.4%−1.830% to makePuntTheir call35.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 7:00UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snapGo for it66.9%−1.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.1%average punt
- Q3 4:01TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it29.4%−4.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q3 2:10UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 48, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snapGo for it69.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%average punt
- Q4 14:58TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 30, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.3%−1.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q4 12:38UNT 4th & 4 at TEM 33, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.1%48% to convertField goal68.0%−2.149% to makePunt66.1%−4.0average punt
- Q4 11:47TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it29.0%−3.822% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%average punt
- Q4 5:32UNT 4th & 7 at TEM 11, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snapGo for it73.3%−0.832% to convertField goalTheir call74.1%87% to makePunt59.4%−14.7average punt
- Q4 3:08TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt19.5%−4.3average punt
- Q4 2:04UNT 4th & 26 at UNT 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it74.3%−5.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.1%average punt
- Q4 1:09TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 49, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.1%−5.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:19UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.7%97% to makeGo for two74.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNTDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4077% → 77%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
22.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 16 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
22.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 7 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
23.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for no gain to the TEM 40Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+21
23.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 21 yds to the TEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
23.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 5 yds to the TEM 14Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
23.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 14 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FG5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1177% → 77%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
23.0%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Miles Coleman, broken up by Jamel JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5523% → 23%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
23.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 3 yds to the TEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4677% → 76%
Q1 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+3
23.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 3 yds to the UNT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4424% → 24%
UNTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0476% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7FG5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0524% → 25%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
24.8%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Ashton Allen, broken up by Ridge TexadaSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-4
24.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 29Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+3
24.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to James Della Pesca for 3 yds to the UNT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5174% → 74%
TEMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4027% → 27%
UNTDrive 10TD4 plays · 60 yds · 15:0877% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4628% → 27%
UNTDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5372% → 71%
TEMDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5329% → 29%
Q2 11:28
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
29.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 5 yds to the TEM 23Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
28.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jamar Taylor Jr. for 3 yds to the TEM 26Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+40
28.7%
Dante Atton punt for 36 yds , Miles Coleman returns for no gain to the UNT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14DOWNS5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0032% → 31%
UNTDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3070% → 70%
TEMDrive 16MISSED FG5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4732% → 32%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
32.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 13 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1170% → 68%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.1%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Kiefer Sibley, broken up by Elijah DeravilSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18TD3 plays · 58 yds · 0:4933% → 35%
UNTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2570% → 70%
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
30.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Brandon Young Jr. for 4 yds to the UNT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20TD7 plays · 72 yds · 1:4231% → 37%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
31.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 10 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
34.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Tyler Stewart for 31 yds to the UNT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
36.2%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Ashton Allen, broken up by Quinton HammondsSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-5
34.5%
Evan Simon pass intercepted for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, roughing passer (Breylon Charles) to the UNT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.8%
Evan Simon run for 1 yd for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4170% → 68%
TEMDrive 22END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 4:0332% → 35%
Q3 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
32.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jamar Taylor Jr. for 9 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
32.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Tyler Stewart for 4 yds to the TEM 38Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+15
33.9%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Antonio Jones, broken up by Quinton Hammonds for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, roughing passer (Jaylen Smith) to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
36.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 3 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+2
35.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Tyler Stewart for 2 yds to the UNT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 3:3767% → 68%
TEMDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:5433% → 31%
UNTDrive 26Uncategorized7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4771% → 70%
TEMDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0433% → 31%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
32.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 12 yds to the TEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28DOWNS5 plays · 36 yds · 2:1371% → 70%
TEMDrive 29PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4434% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 30MISSED FG12 plays · 65 yds · 5:4771% → 76%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
29.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 22Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+23
29.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 23 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+19
25.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 19 yds to the TEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+11
23.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 11 yds to the TEM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
21.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for no gain to the TEM 14Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
19.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 7 yds to the TEM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 31DOWNS5 plays · 25 yds · 2:2433% → 29%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
33.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Tyler Stewart for 21 yds to the TEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-14
31.9%
Evan Simon sacked by Ethan Wesloski for a loss of 14 yards to the TEM 25Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 26
OWN 25
+20
28.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 20 yds to the TEM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 32PUNT6 plays · -16 yds · 1:0186% → 82%
TEMDrive 33INT10 plays · 52 yds · 1:4728% → 30%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
27.7%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Daniel Evert, broken up by Shane WhitterSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+17
24.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 17 yds to the TEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+2
27.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to James Della Pesca for 2 yds to the TEM 49Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+23
23.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to James Della Pesca for 23 yds to the UNT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 34Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:08
run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 6
-18.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-11.8
TD · Q1 12:19
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 14 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) (Kali Nguma KICK)
-0.6