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NAVY

Navy 34 at East Carolina 20

ECU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:10 · Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rayuan Lane III at the NAVY 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense+2.2Pregame prior+6.9Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:58: Brandon Chatman run for 16 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +15.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:11: Eli Heidenreich run for 36 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +15.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:48: Braxton Woodson pass complete to Nathan Kent for 61 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:35: Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +12.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:49: Braxton Woodson run for 38 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT BLOCKED) — NAVY win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:39ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25NAVY 4th & 3 at ECU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11ECU 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:12NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:16ECU 4th & 7 at NAVY 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:02NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:29ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:47ECU 4th & 11 at NAVY 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:49NAVY 4th & 23 at NAVY 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:39ECU 4th & 18 at ECU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:38NAVY 4th & 1 at ECU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−2.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:10ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:02NAVY 4th & 4 at ECU 4, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−9.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:25ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 40, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:00NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−3.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:29ECU 4th & 3 at NAVY 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−4.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:59ECU 4th & 9 at NAVY 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:52ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q3 6:58NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:11NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:48NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:35ECU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:49NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:06NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1462% → 62%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
62.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
62.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-6
62.3%
Katin Houser sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 20Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+8
62.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 48 yds , Rayuan Lane III returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0438% → 38%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
62.2%
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
62.1%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+9
62.0%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
61.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
61.7%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+1
61.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the ECU 38Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+2
62.0%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the ECU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:1063% → 63%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
62.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
62.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Casey Kelly for 8 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
62.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 19 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
63.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+29
63.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 29 yds to the NAVY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the NAVY 2Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
63.3%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 7Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
63.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NAVY 3Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
63.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.7%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5638% → 37%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
62.2%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 5Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
62.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the NAVY 6Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+6
62.5%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+15
62.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for 15 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4964% → 62%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
63.5%
London Montgomery run for 19 yds to the NAVY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
63.6%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the NAVY 10Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
63.6%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NAVY 8Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+1
63.3%
London Montgomery run for 1 yd to the NAVY 7Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 2
OPP 7
-5
62.8%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Jimarion McCrimon) to the NAVY 12Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
62.2%
Andrew Conrad 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:1339% → 38%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.5%
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-10
61.4%
(02:27) WOODSON, Braxton pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to TECZA, Alex caught at the NAV21 and advanced to the NAV36 (BARKER, Zakye), clock 02:17. PENALTY NAV Holding on SMITH II, Hoke enforced 10 yards from the NAV24 to the NAV14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+17
61.6%
Braxton Woodson run for 17 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
60.5%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-1
60.6%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
61.2%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
61.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for no gain to the ECU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1262% → 62%
Q2 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
61.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 2 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+6
61.3%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.4%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
62.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
61.8%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
62.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, downed at the NAVY 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:1839% → 39%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
60.7%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 7 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 3
OWN 15
-1
60.4%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 14Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 14
-2
61.1%
Jackson Gutierrez sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 16 Jackson Gutierrez fumbled, recovered by ECU TyMir Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0564% → 63%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
64.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-4
64.1%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
63.4%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
63.0%
Andrew Conrad 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:5837% → 35%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.3%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
63.0%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
64.0%
Navy Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-3 Yards) to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 23
OWN 12
-2
65.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 53 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5663% → 63%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
62.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
62.0%
Katin Houser sacked by MarcAnthony Parker for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 17Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
62.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:5538% → 38%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
61.6%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Alex Tecza for 30 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.7%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
59.7%
Braxton Woodson run for 5 yds to the ECU 18Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
60.6%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
61.7%
Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the ECU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2564% → 63%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
64.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 10 yds to the ECU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
64.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
65.3%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
63.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
63.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rayuan Lane III at the NAVY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:0236% → 39%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
63.8%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 10 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
63.0%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+41
63.5%
Braxton Woodson run for 27 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Anta Johnson) to the ECU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
59.4%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 22Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+7
59.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the ECU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
59.0%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 7 yds to the ECU 8Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
58.5%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 4 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.4%
Jackson Gutierrez run for no gain to the ECU 4Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
58.4%
Eli Heidenreich run for 3 yds to the ECU 1Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
59.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 4Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
61.2%
Nathan Kirkwood 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 7:5636% → 57%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
64.1%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
64.4%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+7
64.2%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 7 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
62.7%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
61.5%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
61.8%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
60.9%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
60.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the ECU 45Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
61.4%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 9 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
60.9%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Jake Norris for 15 yds to the ECU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
59.0%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
59.0%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 3 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
43.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 16 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2549% → 49%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
49.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
50.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+2
50.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 2 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+43
49.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 43 yds , Rayuan Lane III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1454% → 54%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
46.1%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+3
45.7%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
44.3%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 4
OWN 22
-5
45.9%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Landon Robinson) to the NAVY 17Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+11
46.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1749% → 46%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
50
0
49.4%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
50
+2
48.8%
Winston Wright Jr. run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
47.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 5 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
46.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:1362% → 79%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.2%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
38.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 44Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+16
39.3%
Braxton Woodson run for 16 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
36.5%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 36Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
21.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 36 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:0724% → 26%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
24.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
24.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 10 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
24.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
24.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 10 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
25.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
25.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
26.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
26.5%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+1
23.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 1 yd to the NAVY 31Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
26.0%
Andrew Conrad 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1178% → 92%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.8%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Nathan Kent for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
20.5%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
7.6%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Nathan Kent for 61 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 5:0712% → 21%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
11.5%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-1
10.0%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 23Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+12
9.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 12 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
9.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
8.9%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
9.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+6
8.7%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
9.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 9 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
9.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
8.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 9 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
9.4%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
9.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
9.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 14 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
8.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 3 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
8.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the NAVY 9Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
21.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:4689% → 97%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.3%
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
10.4%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 33Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
10.4%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
9.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 27 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
3.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 38 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:194% → 4%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
3.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyler Savage for 14 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-27
3.9%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Kyle Jacob return for 27 yds to the ECU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0797% → 99%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
3.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the ECU 10Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
0.7%
Braxton Woodson 10 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 0:261% → 1%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
0.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 16 yds to the ECU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
0.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 16 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 48Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+52
0.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 52 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:0398% → 99%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
1.6%
(01:27) [NHSG] Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at ECU46 (team loss of 2), clock 01:24.Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-2
1.5%
[NH] Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at ECU48 (team loss of 2), clock 00:47.Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 14
OPP 48
-2
1.5%
(00:24) [NH] Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at ECU50 (team loss of 2), clock 00:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:58
Brandon Chatman run for 16 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-15.5
TD · Q3 0:11
Eli Heidenreich run for 36 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q4 10:48
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Nathan Kent for 61 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com