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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:34 · Patrick Foley punt for 38 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout marginPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:20: Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +18.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:29: Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CLT win probability +14.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:20: Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UAB win probability +17.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:12: Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — CLT win probability +19.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:57: Lee Beebe Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +33.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:17UAB 4th & 2 at CLT 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.9%57% to convertField goal46.8%−0.138% to makePunt46.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:44UAB 4th & 1 at CLT 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.7%71% to convertField goal46.5%−0.275% to makePunt45.8%−0.9average punt
- Q1 8:54CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snapGo for it53.0%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.3%average punt
- Q1 7:57UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it45.6%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%average punt
- Q1 2:34UAB 4th & 5 at CLT 38, down 7Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it42.3%42% to convertField goal41.8%−0.538% to makePuntTheir call41.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:08CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it58.2%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.1%average punt
- Q2 10:34CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snapGo for it53.6%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%average punt
- Q2 6:40UAB 4th & 17 at CLT 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snapGo for it45.2%−1.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q2 1:56CLT 4th & 4 at UAB 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snapGo for it56.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call55.5%−0.693% to makePunt50.0%−6.1average punt
- Q3 14:06CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 48, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snapGo for it51.4%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.3%average punt
- Q3 11:27UAB 4th & 6 at CLT 49, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it50.3%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.6%average punt
- Q3 10:27CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 5, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snapGo for it47.4%−1.836% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q3 7:44UAB 4th & 2 at CLT 16, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snapGo for it50.8%56% to convertField goalTheir call49.6%−1.381% to makePunt39.9%−11.0average punt
- Q4 9:29CLT 4th & 3 at UAB 14, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snapGo for it51.2%−2.351% to convertField goalTheir call53.5%84% to makePunt35.1%−18.3average punt
- Q4 8:17CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 44, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it58.1%−7.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q4 6:51UAB 4th & 20 at UAB 7, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it25.7%−5.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q4 2:43CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 26, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snapGo for it66.0%−5.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 5:12CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.2%97% to makeGo for two57.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:08UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.2%97% to makeGo for two44.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.6%97% to makeGo for two52.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:29CLT Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick68.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call67.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:20UAB Touchdown, up 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick53.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call53.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:12CLT Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 2:57UAB Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.9%97% to makeGo for two22.3%−1.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1DOWNS10 plays · 50 yds · 5:0849% → 48%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
51.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Malachi Holt-Bennett for 24 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
51.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
51.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4452% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4148% → 47%
Q1 7:57
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+22
52.8%
Patrick Foley punt for 45 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for 22 yds to the CLT 26 Charlotte Penalty, Illegal Block (Mordecai McDaniel) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4TD7 plays · 59 yds · 2:3353% → 58%
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+15
53.1%
UAB Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tyjon Jones) to the UAB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 2:3844% → 43%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
56.5%
Harrison Barker pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 20 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1958% → 58%
UABDrive 7TD7 plays · 60 yds · 2:5642% → 49%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
58.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 6 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
50
-5
57.8%
Jalen Kitna run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 45 Jalen Kitna fumbled, recovered by UAB Jalen Kitna J. Kitna return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+22
59.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Bryce Damous for 22 yds to the CLT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+2
57.8%
Charlotte Penalty, Face mask (2 yards) (Cam Burden) to the CLT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
50.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for 12 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2855% → 54%
Q2 10:34
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
53.6%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kam Shanks at the UAB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 3:4847% → 45%
Q2 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+9
52.2%
Harrison Barker pass complete to Kam Shanks for 9 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
50.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 2 yds to the CLT 40Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 14
OPP 46
-3
51.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 49Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
52.9%
Patrick Foley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 11Similar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
55.4%
UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Adrian Maddox) to the CLT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FG10 plays · 85 yds · 4:3956% → 59%
UABDrive 11TD10 plays · 71 yds · 1:3042% → 59%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
58.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 6 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+17
56.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 17 yds to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+17
56.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 17 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
55.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Malachi Holt-Bennett for 5 yds to the CLT 26Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+26
41.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12FG6 plays · 62 yds · 0:2048% → 54%
CLTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4555% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 2:3651% → 52%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
49.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 5 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
50.6%
(12:52) KITNA, Jalen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MILLINER, Corri thrown to the CLT50, clock 12:47. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on BALFOUR, Dontae enforced 15 yards to the UAB47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5150% → 47%
Q3 10:27
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+16
47.1%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 46 yds , Kam Shanks returns for 16 yds to the CLT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16MISSED FG5 plays · 19 yds · 2:3256% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1251% → 72%
Q3 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
50.3%
(06:57) PURDIE, Deshawn pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MYERS, Isaiah thrown to the CLT40, clock 06:53. PENALTY UAB Holding on HILL, Kelvin enforced 10 yards from the CLT21 to the CLT31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
49.9%
(06:15) PURDIE, Deshawn pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for THOMAS JR., Duane thrown to the UAB15, clock 06:08. PENALTY UAB Pass Interference on THORNTON III, Ray enforced 15 yards to the CLT50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
50
+27
55.4%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 27 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+17
57.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Sean Brown for 17 yds to the UAB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.0%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18TD11 plays · 65 yds · 5:0937% → 58%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
62.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 2 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+15
63.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 15 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+31
57.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 31 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
57.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Terrell McDonald for a loss of 8 yards Terrell McDonald fumbled, recovered by UAB Terrell McDonald T. McDonald return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 14:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
42.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19FG9 plays · 61 yds · 4:5149% → 66%
UABDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Jalen Kitna pass intercepted Ositadinma Ekwonu return for no gain to the CLT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5969% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1638% → 34%
Q4 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-11
63.7%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Chantz Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the UAB 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:3569% → 93%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
93.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24TD5 plays · 70 yds · 2:1011% → 46%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
89.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Bryce Damous for 9 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
88.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 11 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
87.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 44 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:1275% → 70%
Q4 2:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
70.3%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kam Shanks at the UAB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 26MISSED FG12 plays · 61 yds · 2:3932% → 43%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
68.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 5 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
65.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 5 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+22
63.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Malachi Holt-Bennett for 7 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST down Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the CLT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+35
61.7%
(00:03) DELANGE, Jonah field goal attempt from 35 yards NO GOOD (wide left) [kick was spotted at CLT25], clock 00:00. PENALTY CLT Personal Foul on ALI, Al-Ma'hi enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the CLT17 to the CLT8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+43.3
TD · Q4 2:57
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
-33.1
TD · Q4 5:12
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+19.5