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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreMEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Seth Henigan pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:40: Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +4.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:45: Tristian Vandenberg 28 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +5.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:02: Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +14.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:29: Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +18.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:41: Mario Anderson Jr. run for 47 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +5.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 6:58TULN 4th & 10 at MEM 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.3%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call76.5%64% to makePunt75.5%−1.0average punt
- Q1 4:55MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.8%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%average punt
- Q2 8:16TULN 4th & 11 at TULN 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snapGo for it68.7%−0.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.6%average punt
- Q2 1:45MEM 4th & 5 at TULN 10, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snapGo for it36.4%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call36.5%88% to makePunt29.9%−6.6average punt
- Q2 1:07TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.8%average punt
- Q2 0:00MEM 4th & 16 at TULN 49, up 7Numbers favored punt by 2.8 ptsWent for it · 44.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.7%−2.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt44.5%average punt
- Q3 8:53TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snapGo for it35.5%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%average punt
- Q4 14:57MEM 4th & 5 at TULN 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call81.6%92% to makePunt70.2%−11.4average punt
- Q4 11:23MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it68.6%−6.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%average punt
- Q4 7:37MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it81.4%−1.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:04MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.0%97% to makeGo for two20.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:34TULN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.7%97% to makeGo for two77.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:40MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.2%97% to makeGo for two28.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:02MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.2%97% to makeGo for two58.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:29TULN Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.2%97% to makeGo for two26.8%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 2:41MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:08TULN Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.9%97% to makeGo for two5.5%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEMDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5022% → 25%
Q1 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+42
77.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 42 yds to the TULN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
77.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the TULN 23Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
75.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2FG11 plays · 49 yds · 4:0176% → 75%
MEMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5525% → 26%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
74.7%
Seth Henigan sacked by Terrell Allen and Parker Petersen for a loss of 7 yards to the MEM 18Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-2
74.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 16Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
74.5%
Joshua Sloan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD8 plays · 63 yds · 4:1374% → 76%
Q1 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+42
73.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 42 yds to the MEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
74.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Alex Bauman for 5 yds to the MEM 16Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4525% → 32%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
74.0%
Seth Henigan sacked by Patrick Jenkins and Chris Rodgers for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 41Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+16
74.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 16 yds to the TULN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
73.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the TULN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+25
67.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1970% → 67%
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
69.3%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 16 yds to the TULN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
70.3%
Darian Mensah sacked by Kobee Minor for a loss of 10 yards to the TULN 31Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+9
68.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shaadie Clayton-Johnson for 9 yds to the TULN 40Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
67.0%
Will Karoll punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7FG16 plays · 60 yds · 6:2033% → 49%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
66.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 9 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
64.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+12
65.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brady Kluse for 12 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
62.5%
Tulane Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TULN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
59.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 6 yds to the TULN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+2
57.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 2 yds to the TULN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3156% → 55%
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
55.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 4 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
54.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 2 yds to the TULN 33Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
54.9%
Will Karoll punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 17 yds · 1:0047% → 47%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
53.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
51.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
50
+7
50.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the TULN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-11
49.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Sam Howard for a loss of 11 yards to the MEM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10FUMBLE5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2455% → 56%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
54.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 22 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 7
50
+40
55.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 40 yds Yulkeith Brown fumbled, forced by Kourtlan Marsh, recovered by MEM AJ Watts , return for 37 yds to the MEM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD6 plays · 53 yds · 2:1751% → 68%
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
50
+15
48.3%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete to Blankumsee, Demeer, PENALTY TULANE pass interference 15 yards to the TULANE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
46.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 6 yds to the TULN 29Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
32.2%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5936% → 33%
MEMDrive 13FG17 plays · 65 yds · 8:4971% → 87%
Q3 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
28.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 5 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+11
27.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 11 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+6
23.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 6 yds to the TULN 47 (Henigan breaks AAC record for career pass yards)Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+12
23.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 12 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+7
19.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the TULN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
18.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 7 yds to the TULN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD7 plays · 78 yds · 1:1016% → 34%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
15.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 18 yds to the TULN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+28
13.3%
Darian Mensah run for 13 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST down Memphis Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
15.4%
Mensah, Darian pass incomplete to Bauman, Alex, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference 15 yards to the MEMPHIS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FUMBLE5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0071% → 73%
Q4 11:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
25.1%
Seth Henigan sacked by Kameron Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the MEM 22 Seth Henigan fumbled, forced by Kameron Hamilton, recovered by MEM Xavier Hill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-6
26.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for 48 yds , Dontae Fleming returns for a loss of 6 yards to the TULN 24 Dontae Fleming fumbled, recovered by TULNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 67 yds · 1:1424% → 20%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
24.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shaadie Clayton-Johnson for 9 yds to the TULN 33Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
24.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shaadie Clayton-Johnson for 3 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+55
20.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 55 yds Mario Williams fumbled, recovered by MEM Kourtlan MarshSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1281% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18INT2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3118% → 19%
MEMDrive 19TD8 plays · 98 yds · 4:0785% → 98%
TULNDrive 20TD10 plays · 48 yds · 1:003% → 8%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
3.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 3 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-1
2.7%
Darian Mensah sacked by Chandler Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 46Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+10
2.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Arnold Barnes III for 10 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
2.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 7 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+20
3.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 20 yds to the MEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
3.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Arnold Barnes III for 6 yds to the MEM 3Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shazz Preston for 3 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3296% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:29
Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
+18.7
TD · Q3 11:02
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
-14.3
FG · Q2 1:45
Tristian Vandenberg 28 yd FG GOOD
-5.8