Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 30 at South Florida 63

USF
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:53 · Angus Davies punt for 52 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 9 yds to the USF 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense+28.8Pregame prior+21.3Score differential+20.7Blowout margin+10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Garbage-time factor+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:15: Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +1.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:13: Bryce Archie run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +2.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:41: Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 58 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:20: Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:11: Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 16 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:35TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13USF 4th & 8 at TLSA 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:07USF 4th & 9 at USF 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:24TLSA 4th & 2 at USF 2, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27USF 4th & 4 at TLSA 48, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:45TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 9, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:53TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:07USF 4th & 10 at USF 48, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20TLSA 4th & 9 at USF 18, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:48USF 4th & 1 at USF 10, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:06TLSA 4th & 10 at USF 39, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:16USF 4th & 12 at TLSA 40, up 42
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:20TLSA 4th & 5 at USF 33, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:05TLSA 4th & 2 at USF 4, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:30USF 4th & 10 at USF 35, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:19USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:32USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:15USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:13USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:41USF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:20TLSA Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:11USF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:47USF Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:45TLSA Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:23USF Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:03TLSA Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:22USF Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:37TLSA Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4086% → 86%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
86.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 20 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
86.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+48
86.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 48 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4314% → 14%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.2%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TLSA 20Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+2
86.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Luke McGary for 2 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+8
86.2%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 8 yds to the USF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:5586% → 87%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
86.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 4 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
86.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
86.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
86.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 26 yds to the TLSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
86.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+2
86.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the TLSA 13Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+10
86.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 10 yds to the TLSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5714% → 13%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
86.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-4
86.6%
Cooper Legas sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 29 Cooper Legas fumbled, recovered by TLSA , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
86.7%
Angus Davies punt for 59 yds, downed at the USF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:1087% → 87%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
86.8%
Bryce Archie run for 9 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+15
86.9%
(09:08) ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN-STEPHENS, Michael thrown to the TUL37, clock 09:02. PENALTY TUL Pass Interference on GREEN, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the USF36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
86.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 32 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.0%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
87.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
87.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
87.1%
John Cannon 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2713% → 13%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
86.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 8 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-12
86.7%
Cooper Legas pass intercepted Tawfiq Byard return for 12 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:1788% → 89%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
87.5%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+38
87.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 38 yds to the TLSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Tulsa Penalty, Offsides (Ashton Williams) to the TLSA 0Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0611% → 11%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
89.3%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
89.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 7 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
89.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:5390% → 92%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
89.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 18 yds to the TLSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
89.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+6
89.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the TLSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.3%
Bryce Archie run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:417% → 6%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
92.9%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 31Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 5 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
93.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 36 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
93.6%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the USF 27 Bill Jackson fumbled, recovered by USF Tawfiq Byard T. Byard return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2393% → 94%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
93.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 7 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-1
93.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 33Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-5
93.6%
Bryce Archie sacked by Zach Marcheselli for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 28Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
93.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 51 yds, downed at the TLSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:345% → 5%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+77
94.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 77 yds to the USF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
94.2%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 3Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the USF 2Similar
Q2 14:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
94.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Anthony Watkins for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 2:3795% → 94%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
95.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 8 yds to the USF 14Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+7
95.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the USF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
95.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 8 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+7
95.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 7 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
95.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+9
95.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 9 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
95.5%
(12:05) ARCHIE, Bryce scrambles up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the TUL43 (POTTER, Gavin), clock 12:06. PENALTY USF Holding on PERRY, RJ enforced 10 yards from the TUL48 to the USF42 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+58
93.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 58 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:203% → 3%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.6%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 9 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
96.3%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for no gain to the TLSA 34Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
96.6%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
96.9%
(10:34) LEGAS, Cooper pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Joseph thrown to the USF18, clock 10:29. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on CHENAULT, James enforced 15 yards to the USF46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
96.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 19 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
96.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 14 yds to the USF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
96.7%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 9Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-2
96.8%
Kamdyn Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 11Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
96.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:4995% → 97%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 24Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
96.7%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 19Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
96.8%
Bryce Archie run for 7 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
96.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 20 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
97.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-2
97.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 48Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
97.2%
Israel Carter run for no gain to the TLSA 48Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
97.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:362% → 2%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
98.1%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 9Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
98.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 9
0
98.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
98.2%
Angus Davies punt for 38 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the TLSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:2698% → 99%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.6%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
97.6%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 48Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+11
97.8%
Bryce Archie run for 11 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.9%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
97.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
97.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
98.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 9 yds to the TLSA 17Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
98.0%
Ta'Ron Keith run for no gain to the TLSA 17Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+1
98.0%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the TLSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
98.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 16 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:171% → 1%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.2%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 22Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
99.1%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 7 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
99.1%
Cooper Legas sacked by Mac Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 27Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.2%
Angus Davies punt for 52 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 9 yds to the USF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 3 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+15
98.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 15 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.7%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.8%
Bryce Archie run for 5 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-5
98.8%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Sean Atkins) to the USF 48Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
98.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
98.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.3%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+9
99.3%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the TLSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.3%
Cooper Legas run for 6 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
99.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21INT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:411% → 1%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
98.9%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the USF 40Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+21
99.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Luke McGary for 21 yds to the USF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.9%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the USF 19Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-10
99.0%
(13:32) QB Keeper LEGAS, Cooper rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the USF20 (VAUGHN, Jason), clock 13:29. PENALTY TUL Holding on MCGARY, Luke enforced 10 yards from the USF19 to the USF29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 20
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 20
OPP 29
+11
99.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 11 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+10
98.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 10 yds to the USF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
99.2%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 11Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.3%
Cooper Legas pass intercepted, touchback. Tavin Ward return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
99.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 20 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
99.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 16 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the TLSA 44Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Elijah Green return for no gain to the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Cooper Legas pass intercepted James Chenault return for no gain to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:5899% → 100%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.4%
Bryce Archie run for 7 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
99.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 30 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:070% → 0%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+72
99.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 72 yds Joseph Williams fumbled, recovered by USF Ben Knox B. Knox return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the USF 2Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+7
99.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the USF 9Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
99.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the USF 10Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+9
99.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 53 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 9 yds to the USF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.6%
Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-1
99.6%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 34Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 5
OPP 34
-5
99.6%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Lloyd Avant) to the USF 39Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28MISSED FG
13 plays · 21 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the USF 39Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Israel Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+13
99.7%
Israel Carter pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 13 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
99.7%
Israel Carter run for 10 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-15
99.7%
South Florida Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Nay'Quan Wright) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 21
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Israel Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 21
OPP 49
-5
99.7%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Ira Singleton) to the USF 46Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 26
OWN 46
+9
99.7%
Israel Carter run for 9 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 17
OPP 45
+5
99.7%
Tulsa Penalty, Offsides (Myles Jackson) to the TLSA 40Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 12
OPP 40
+58
99.8%
Nico Gramatica 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:260% → 0%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
99.8%
Kirk Francis run for 1 yd to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+15
99.8%
(00:34) FRANCIS, Kirk pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BENJAMIN, Kamdyn thrown to the USF30, clock 00:31. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on KNOX, Ben enforced 15 yards to the USF38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.8%
Tim Carpenter run for 5 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+1
99.8%
Tim Carpenter run for 1 yd to the USF 32Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-1
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 33Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+21
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 21 yds to the USF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 6 yds to the USF 6Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
99.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 2 yds to the USF 4Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Tim Carpenter run for no gain to the USF 4Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+3
99.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 3 yds to the USF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 23Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+26
99.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 26 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for no gain to the USF 49Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Israel Carter pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 7 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Israel Carter pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 8 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 12 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Israel Carter pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 20 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Tim Carpenter run for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Tim Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+32
99.9%
Tim Carpenter pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 32 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
(05:58) FRANCIS, Kirk pass up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Joseph broken up by TAYLOR, Marseille at the USF15, clock 05:56. PENALTY TUL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on YOUNG BEAR, Walter USF Holding on TAYLOR, Marseille , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 4 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+15
99.9%
(05:10) FRANCIS, Kirk pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Joseph thrown to the USF0, clock 05:07. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Marseille enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the USF10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 10 yds for a TD (S. Stanford Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 4 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 2 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+59
100.0%
Israel Carter pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 59 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 33TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
100.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 14 yds to the USF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Kirk Francis pass to Joseph Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 34PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 2 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-11
100.0%
Israel Carter run for a loss of 11 yards to the USF 26 Israel Carter fumbled, recovered by USF return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+9
100.0%
Alvon Isaac run for 9 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 35END OF GAME
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
100.0%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 13 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
100.0%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 8 yds to the USF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:13
Bryce Archie run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 11:41
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 58 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-1.9
TD · Q1 6:15
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com