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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:23 · Dante Atton punt for 62 yds, downed at the UTSA 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:54: Owen McCown run for 75 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:37: Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +6.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 50%).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Antwain Littleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +4.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:27: Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 61 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +10.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:59: Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 3 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 13:01TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.9%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q1 7:18TEM 4th & 30 at TEM 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q1 6:08TEM 4th & 7 at UTSA 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call14.6%77% to makePunt13.9%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:46UTSA 4th & 1 at TEM 42, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.9%70% to convertField goal83.2%−0.730% to makePunt83.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 0:46TEM 4th & 10 at midfield, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snapGo for it16.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q2 13:33UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 32, up 4Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it82.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 11:23TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 13, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q2 9:31TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 28, down 11Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:17TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 31, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.7%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q3 11:58UTSA 4th & 4 at TEM 4, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snapGo for it87.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call87.4%−0.393% to makePunt83.6%−4.1average punt
- Q3 9:54TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 33, down 14Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it10.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:43UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it90.5%−1.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.2%average punt
- Q3 5:36UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snapGo for it84.8%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.0%average punt
- Q4 14:56TEM 4th & 12 at UTSA 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snapGo for it6.2%−1.321% to convertField goalTheir call7.5%83% to makePunt2.7%−4.8average punt
- Q4 13:50UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 37, up 11Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snapGo for it90.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 11:44TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.8%−0.731% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q4 8:19UTSA 4th & 17 at TEM 30, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snapGo for it90.6%−1.314% to convertField goalTheir call91.9%56% to makePunt90.9%−1.0average punt
- Q4 7:17TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.6%33% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:24UTSA 4th & 8 at TEM 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%66% to makePunt94.5%−2.1average punt
- Q4 5:07TEM 4th & 15 at TEM 20, down 17Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.9%average punt
- Q4 0:38TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 24, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−<0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:47UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.9%97% to makeGo for two85.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:54UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.7%97% to makeGo for two85.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:37TEM Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.9%97% to makeGo for two18.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:57UTSA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27TEM Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.6%97% to makeGo for two11.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:27TEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.7%97% to makeGo for two15.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:59UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:29UTSA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5813% → 14%
UTSADrive 2TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0286% → 87%
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
86.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
86.0%
(11:12) MCCOWN, Owen pass up the middle complete for 2 yards to AMADOR II, David caught at the TEMPLE45 and advanced to the TEMPLE43 (JOHNSON, Jamel), clock 11:07. PENALTY TEMPLE Offsides on BLACK, Diwun enforced 5 yards from the TEMPLE45 to the TEMPLE40 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 3:2814% → 14%
Q1 10:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
86.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 16 yds to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
86.3%
Evan Simon sacked by Jimmori Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the TEM 37Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 18
OWN 32
-12
86.4%
Evan Simon sacked by Asyrus Simon for a loss of 12 yards to the TEM 20Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 30
OWN 20
+40
86.4%
Dante Atton punt for 40 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for no gain to the UTSA 41 , returns for no gain to the UTSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4FG6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0214% → 15%
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
85.7%
UTSA Penalty, Personal Foul (14 Yards) to the UTSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2285% → 84%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.9%
(06:08) MCCOWN, Owen pass short up the middle complete for 4 yards to THOMAS, Houston caught at the UTSA27 and advanced to the UTSA29 (KEATON, Andreas), clock 06:03. PENALTY Before the snap, UTSA Illegal Formation on GARTH, Jaylen enforced 5 yards from the UTSA25 to the UTSA20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
84.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 7 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-8
84.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5517% → 17%
UTSADrive 7PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0683% → 82%
TEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0317% → 17%
Q2 12:52
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-5
82.7%
(12:52) SIMON, Evan pass to the right complete for 5 yards to LITTLETON II, Antwain caught at the TEMPLE17 and advanced to the TEMPLE25 (NEWELL, Elijah), clock 12:48. PENALTY Before the snap, TEMPLE Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TEMPLE20 to the TEMPLE15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+6
82.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 6 yds to the TEM 21Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-8
82.8%
Evan Simon sacked by Jimmori Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the TEM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1614% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11INT5 plays · 50 yds · 2:0787% → 88%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
87.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 5 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
87.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 2 yds to the UTSA 45Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
87.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 10 yds to the TEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+33
87.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 33 yds to the TEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2215% → 21%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
84.7%
(06:59) WRIGHT, Dante rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the UTSA26 (HARRIS, Denver), clock 06:54. PENALTY TEMPLE Holding on TAYLOR, Jamar enforced 10 yards from the UTSA30 to the UTSA40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+2
85.5%
UTSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Brown) to the UTSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
79.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0612% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD4 plays · 97 yds · 1:0287% → 92%
TEMDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:219% → 15%
UTSADrive 16MISSED FG7 plays · 40 yds · 0:2587% → 88%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.4%
(00:25) MCCOWN, Owen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CARPENTER, Chris thrown to the UTSA45, clock 00:22. PENALTY TEMPLE Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Jamel enforced 15 yards to the UTSA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
88.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 16 yds to the TEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
88.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Bryson Donnell for a loss of 3 yards to the TEM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17FG7 plays · 44 yds · 3:0089% → 91%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
88.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 6 yds to the TEM 42Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+27
88.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 27 yds to the TEM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
88.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 12 yds to the TEM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0310% → 10%
Q3 9:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
90.2%
Dante Atton punt for 39 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for 2 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0292% → 92%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
91.5%
Owen McCown sacked by Elijah Deravil and Sekou Kromah for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 24Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-5
91.3%
(08:38) MCCOWN, Owen pass up the middle complete for 16 yards to HARDY, Jamel caught at the UTSA25 and advanced to the UTSA41 (KEATON, Andreas), clock 08:30. PENALTY Before the snap, UTSA Illegal Formation on GARTH, Jaylen enforced 5 yards from the UTSA25 to the UTSA20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
91.5%
Caile Hogan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
80.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 61 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5585% → 82%
TEMDrive 22INT1 play · -5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 15
OWN 19
0
82.0%
Evan Simon pass intercepted Zah Frazier return for no gain to the TEM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD2 plays · 43 yds · 0:2487% → 93%
TEMDrive 24INT4 plays · 16 yds · 1:489% → 9%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.0%
Evan Simon pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the UTSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25INT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:2894% → 94%
Q3 1:40
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
94.3%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Andreas Keaton return for no gain to the UTSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26FG6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3910% → 11%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
89.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 8 yds to the UTSA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5791% → 90%
Q4 13:50
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
90.3%
Caile Hogan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 28PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0111% → 9%
Q4 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
89.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 9 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29FG6 plays · 27 yds · 3:1991% → 96%
Q4 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+33
91.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 33 yds to the TEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
93.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Bryson Donnell for 5 yds to the TEM 19Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-11
93.3%
Owen McCown sacked by D.J. Woodbury Sr. for a loss of 11 yards to the TEM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 30DOWNS4 plays · 2 yds · 1:016% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31FG6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4897% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 32DOWNS5 plays · 2 yds · 0:162% → 2%
Q4 5:07
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+7
98.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 7 yds to the TEM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 33TD6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3098% → 100%
Q4 4:05
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+11
98.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 11 yds to the TEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 34DOWNS8 plays · 58 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-9
99.6%
Evan Simon sacked by Camron Cooper for a loss of 9 yards to the TEM 20Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+5
99.7%
(00:49) SIMON, Evan sacked for a loss of 14 yards at the TEMPLE5, fumble on the sack (forced by SHAW, Vic), recovered by UTSA RODGERS, Jakevian at the TEMPLE5, returned 0 yards to the TEMPLE5, End of Play, clock 00:39. PENALTY UTSA Offsides on HUFF JR., Timothy enforced 5 yards from the TEMPLE19 to the TEMPLE24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+59
99.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 59 yds Kajiya Hollawayne fumbled, recovered by UTSA Davin Martin D. Martin return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 35END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
99.8%
(00:22) [NH] Kneel down by MCCOWN, Owen at UTSA16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:17.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:27
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 61 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 4:59
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 3 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q2 4:37
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
-6.3