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ECU

East Carolina 40 at North Texas 28

UNT
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:41 · punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ja'Marley Riddle at the ECU 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense−13.2Score differential−3.5Garbage-time factor−7.9Pregame prior+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:06: Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +12.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:06: Rahjai Harris run for 39 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +12.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:08: Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 50 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +18.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:43: Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +16.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:04: Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +23.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:34UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08ECU 4th & 18 at ECU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:26ECU 4th & 1 at UNT 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−1.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−5.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:36UNT 4th & 6 at ECU 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:31ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:33UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.6%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:19ECU 4th & 5 at UNT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−8.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:31UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:26UNT 4th & 6 at ECU 33, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:36ECU 4th & 4 at UNT 12, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%−1.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−19.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:41UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:38ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 40, up 6
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:03UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−3.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:29UNT 4th & 10 at ECU 15, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:31UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:54UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:06UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:04ECU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:06ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:08ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:43ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:04UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:38ECU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5645% → 45%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
55.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 27 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
55.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
55.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 44 yds Anthony Smith fumbled, recovered by UNT Chavez Brown C. Brown return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2755% → 55%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
55.3%
Shane Porter run for 9 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
55.4%
Shane Porter run for 4 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
55.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 5 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
55.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 4 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
55.7%
Makenzie McGill II run for no gain to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-2
55.6%
Chandler Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 40Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
55.2%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:0845% → 45%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-1
55.3%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 46Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 16
OPP 46
-1
55.3%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 47Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 17
OPP 47
-29
55.5%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Quinton Hammonds return for 29 yds to the ECU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:4456% → 59%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
56.3%
Shane Porter run for 20 yds to the ECU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
56.5%
Shane Porter run for 6 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+7
56.7%
Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 4 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:2142% → 41%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
58.5%
East Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Katin Houser) to the ECU 17Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
58.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:1259% → 65%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
59.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 12 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
59.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
59.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 7 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
59.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the ECU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
60.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
60.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+17
59.7%
Chandler Morris run for 17 yds to the ECU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2737% → 36%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.7%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
62.8%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
63.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 41 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
62.1%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-5
62.3%
East Carolina Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UNT 24Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+8
62.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to London Montgomery for 8 yds to the UNT 16Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
63.6%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 1
OPP 14
0
64.0%
London Montgomery run for no gain to the UNT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4866% → 70%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
65.8%
East Carolina Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Devon King) to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
66.9%
Nick Rempert run for 23 yds for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
67.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+11
67.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 11 yds to the ECU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
68.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 4 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+12
68.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 12 yds to the ECU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
69.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 7 yds to the ECU 8Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-5
69.5%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 13Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+2
69.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 2 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
69.6%
Kali Nguma 29 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:1132% → 29%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
67.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 12 yds to the ECU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
68.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
68.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
68.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 3 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
69.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
69.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
69.6%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 9
OWN 44
-5
70.3%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Desirrio Riles) to the ECU 39Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
70.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 44 yds , DT Sheffield returns for no gain to the UNT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 5:3273% → 90%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
73.3%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the UNT 18Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
73.2%
Shane Porter run for 5 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+6
72.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 6 yds to the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
73.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 20 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
74.4%
Shane Porter run for 7 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
74.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for no gain to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
73.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 4 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
74.5%
Chandler Morris run for 4 yds to the ECU 36Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-2
74.5%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 38Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+16
73.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 16 yds to the ECU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
74.5%
Shane Porter run for 7 yds to the ECU 15Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+11
74.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 11 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
77.5%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the ECU 3Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 3 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
19 plays · 67 yds · 3:0113% → 25%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
87.1%
Jhari Patterson run for 5 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
87.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
87.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
87.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 5 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+14
86.7%
(01:32) HOUSER, Katin pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Yannick thrown to the UNT37, clock 01:28. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on NELSON II, Brian enforced 14 yards to the UNT35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
85.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-2
85.5%
Katin Houser sacked by Breylon Charles for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 34Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+10
86.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 10 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
85.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 11 yds to the UNT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
86.3%
Jhari Patterson run for 6 yds to the UNT 7Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
86.2%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the UNT 4Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
87.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:0380% → 81%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
80.3%
Shane Porter run for 3 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
80.6%
Chandler Morris run for 4 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+16
80.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 16 yds DT Sheffield fumbled, recovered by ECU Chad Stephens C. Stephens return for 6 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:2822% → 35%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
77.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
65.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 39 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2671% → 71%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
70.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
70.3%
Shane Porter run for 2 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
69.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-1
70.7%
Makenzie McGill II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:1034% → 38%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
66.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+8
66.5%
Katin Houser run for 8 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
65.0%
Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
64.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
66.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UNT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
63.8%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
63.9%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UNT 20Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
65.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
62.2%
Andrew Conrad 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:4867% → 67%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
66.7%
East Carolina Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Luke Holmes) to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
68.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
66.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 5 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
66.5%
Sawyer Evans punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1535% → 59%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
64.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 19 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
62.5%
London Montgomery run for 9 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
60.0%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
50
+50
41.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 50 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3451% → 48%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
51.1%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
50
+13
51.7%
(05:40) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Miles thrown to the ECU33; QB hurried by BARKER, Zakye, clock 05:37. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on WILSON-LAMP, Andrew enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the ECU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
52.2%
Shane Porter run for 5 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-1
53.6%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 33Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
51.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
48.2%
Kali Nguma 51 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4058% → 78%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
42.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+8
40.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
39.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
39.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Mike Edwards III for 6 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
39.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+4
38.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
38.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
21.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3725% → 53%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.9%
Chandler Morris run for 12 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
25.3%
(00:57) MORRIS, Chandler sacked for a loss of 9 yards at the UNT28 (EDWARDS III, Michael;CRAIG, Ryheem), clock 00:53. PENALTY ECU Face mask on CRAIG, Ryheem enforced 15 yards from the UNT37 to the ECU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
27.7%
East Carolina Penalty, Face mask (20 yards) (Chad Stephens) to the ECU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
29.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 7 yds to the ECU 7Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
53.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:2858% → 75%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.3%
London Montgomery run for 7 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
40.1%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
38.8%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
38.7%
London Montgomery run for 1 yd to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
38.1%
London Montgomery run for 7 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
36.5%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
37.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 23 yds to the UNT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
32.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UNT 16Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+4
32.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the UNT 12Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
33.9%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UNT 12Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+31
24.7%
Andrew Conrad 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:5432% → 27%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
31.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 8 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
32.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 9 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
35.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 5 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
35.6%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
36.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
34.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 7
OPP 48
-5
28.8%
North Texas Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
26.8%
punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ja'Marley Riddle at the ECU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:5577% → 85%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
23.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECU 18Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-5
21.1%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Hampton Ergle) to the ECU 13Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
21.5%
Jhari Patterson run for 7 yds to the ECU 20Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+13
20.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 13 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
18.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
17.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-5
15.4%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Desirrio Riles) to the ECU 35Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
17.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 5 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
15.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2823% → 19%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
23.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
22.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 1 yd to the UNT 13Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+15
21.3%
(03:06) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CONWRIGHT, Blair thrown to the UNT34, clock 03:03. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on WILSON-LAMP, Andrew enforced 15 yards to the UNT28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
24.2%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
23.9%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 30Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
21.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
19.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:2093% → 98%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
6.6%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UNT 30Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+23
6.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 23 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:072% → 6%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 11 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
2.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 21 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
2.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 5 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
3.0%
Chandler Morris run for 5 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
3.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 18 yds to the ECU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
3.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 7 yds to the ECU 8Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-7
8.5%
Chandler Morris sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ECU 15 Chandler Morris fumbled, recovered by UNT Paula Vaipulu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
6.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+9
5.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 9 yds to the ECU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
1.5%
(00:23) [NH] Kneel down by HOUSER, Katin at ECU5 (team loss of 1), clock 00:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:04
Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
+23.9
TD · Q3 6:08
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 50 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q3 1:43
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com