Try the model
TULN

Tulane 35 at Navy 0

NAVY
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:49 · Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bryce Bohanon at the TULN 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−55.7Score differential−45.9Pregame prior−1.5Garbage-time factor−23.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:07: Darian Mensah 14 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick) — TULN win probability +3.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:00: Makhi Hughes 14 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick) — TULN win probability +7.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:19: (00:19) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at NAVY11 (team loss of 1), clock 00:11. — NAVY win probability +4.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:15: Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:14: Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 29 — NAVY win probability +2.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:15NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:58NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:31TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:07NAVY 4th & 4 at TULN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:23NAVY 4th & 1 at TULN 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−2.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:19NAVY 4th & 3 at TULN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−1.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:20TULN 4th & 1 at NAVY 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−1.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:05NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23TULN 4th & 4 at NAVY 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:52TULN 4th & 1 at NAVY 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−2.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:56NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:30TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:45NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:49NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 1:07TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:00TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:15TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:19TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:38TULN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4527% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.6%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
26.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the NAVY 37Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+3
27.1%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+5
27.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds , Dontae Fleming returns for 5 yds to the TULN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3273% → 72%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
27.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 16Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+2
27.8%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the TULN 18Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
28.3%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
28.5%
Will Karoll punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:3528% → 29%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
28.3%
Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
28.6%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
29.0%
Isaiah Bryant run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 39Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+1
29.3%
Isaiah Bryant run for 1 yd to the NAVY 40Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
29.5%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+44
29.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds , Dontae Fleming returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1971% → 70%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
29.4%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
29.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 16Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+5
30.1%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the TULN 21Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
30.4%
Will Karoll punt for 52 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for no gain to the NAVY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 4:1530% → 33%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
30.2%
Blake Horvath run for 15 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
31.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
31.5%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the TULN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
32.2%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Ben Purvis) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 15
50
+5
31.7%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the TULN 45Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
32.6%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the TULN 44Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+5
32.6%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 5 yds to the TULN 39Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+2
32.7%
Braxton Woodson pass intercepted Sam Howard return for a loss of 2 yards to the TULN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:5568% → 73%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.7%
Makhi Hughes run for no gain to the TULN 37Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+44
31.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 44 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
30.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
30.9%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
27.0%
Darian Mensah 14 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7DOWNS
15 plays · 40 yds · 5:4728% → 29%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.4%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
27.9%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Alex Tecza for 5 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
28.1%
Tulane Penalty, Offsides (Micah Robinson) to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
28.9%
Alex Tecza run for 11 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
29.7%
Amin Hassan run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 7
50
-5
30.1%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+9
28.6%
Braxton Woodson run for 9 yds to the TULN 46Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
29.6%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the TULN 44Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
29.1%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the TULN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
30.2%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
30.0%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the TULN 38Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
30.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the TULN 35Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
29.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:1173% → 81%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
27.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 21 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
26.2%
Arnold Barnes III run for 7 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
26.1%
Darian Mensah pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
26.3%
Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+12
27.2%
Darian Mensah run for 2 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST down Navy Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kenneth McShan) to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
24.9%
Makhi Hughes run for 8 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
24.8%
Makhi Hughes run for no gain to the NAVY 15Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+2
25.1%
Darian Mensah run for 2 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
24.7%
Makhi Hughes run for no gain to the NAVY 13Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
24.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 4 yds to the NAVY 9Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-5
25.0%
Tulane Penalty, False Start (Derrick Graham) to the NAVY 14Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+14
19.0%
Makhi Hughes 14 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4520% → 19%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
19.8%
Blake Horvath sacked by Matthew Fobbs-White for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 19
OWN 19
-1
19.4%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 18Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+6
19.0%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+47
18.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Dontae Fleming returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3482% → 85%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
18.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 12 yds to the TULN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
17.3%
(01:51) MENSAH, Darian pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FLEMING, Dontae thrown to the NAVY20, clock 01:47. PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference on LANE, Rayuan enforced 15 yards to the NAVY45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
17.0%
Makhi Hughes run for 7 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-7
16.6%
Darian Mensah sacked by Colin Ramos for a loss of 7 yards to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
15.4%
Darian Mensah run for 6 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
15.2%
Will Karoll punt for 27 yds, downed at the NAVY 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
19.2%
(00:19) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at NAVY11 (team loss of 1), clock 00:11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 8:4282% → 97%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
18.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 13 yds to the TULN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
17.1%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-1
16.7%
Makhi Hughes run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 8
50
+27
16.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shazz Preston for 27 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
15.6%
Makhi Hughes run for 6 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+2
15.3%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-5
15.2%
Tulane Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 20Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+6
14.1%
Makhi Hughes run for 6 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
14.2%
Darian Mensah run for 2 yds to the NAVY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
12.6%
Makhi Hughes run for 7 yds to the NAVY 5Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
12.2%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the NAVY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.9%
Arnold Barnes III run for no gain to the NAVY 1Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.9%
Arnold Barnes III run for no gain to the NAVY 1Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.9%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:186% → 5%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.7%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
5.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 8 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.7%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-4
5.5%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
5.0%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
5.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bryce Bohanon at the TULN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2297% → 98%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
2.7%
Arnold Barnes III run for 9 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+9
2.6%
Arnold Barnes III run for 9 yds to the TULN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
2.4%
(02:44) MENSAH, Darian pass to the left incomplete intended for PRESTON, Shazz broken up by LANE, Rayuan at the TULANE48, clock 02:39. PENALTY TULANE Holding enforced 10 yards from the TULANE37 to the TULANE27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+1
2.5%
Arnold Barnes III run for 1 yd to the TULN 28Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+3
2.3%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+3
2.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 3 yds to the TULN 34Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
2.2%
Will Karoll punt for 27 yds, downed at the NAVY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:344% → 4%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
4.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
3.8%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Ben Purvis) to the NAVY 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-5
3.7%
Navy Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 31Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 18
OWN 31
0
3.7%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 18
OWN 31
0
3.6%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
3.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Bryce Bohanon at the TULN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 5:2098% → 100%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
2.0%
Arnold Barnes III run for 9 yds to the TULN 30Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+15
1.9%
Arnold Barnes III run for 15 yds to the TULN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
1.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 12 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
1.6%
Arnold Barnes III run for 7 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+3
1.6%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
1.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+22
1.3%
Darian Mensah run for 22 yds to the NAVY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
1.1%
Ty Thompson run for 5 yds to the NAVY 1Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Alex Bauman for 1 yd for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.3%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 20 Braxton Woodson fumbled, recovered by TULN Sam Howard S. Howard return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
0.3%
Arnold Barnes III run for 3 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+16
0.2%
Darian Mensah run for 16 yds to the NAVY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Arnold Barnes III for 1 yd for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
0.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
0.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 6 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-5
0.1%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Caleb Ransaw for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 37Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+3
0.1%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 3 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bryce Bohanon at the TULN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
0.2%
Ty Thompson run for 9 yds to the TULN 35Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Arnold Barnes III run for no gain to the TULN 35Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
0.2%
Ty Thompson run for 3 yds to the TULN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.1%
Ty Thompson run for 3 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Ty Thompson run for no gain to the TULN 41Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-1
0.1%
(00:35) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at TULANE40 (team loss of 1), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:15
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
-9
TD · Q2 4:00
Makhi Hughes 14 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)
-7.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:19
(00:19) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at NAVY11 (team loss of 1), clock 00:11.
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com