2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:49 · Terrez Worthy run for 14 yds to the FAU 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:53: CJ Campbell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +5.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:22: Maddux Trujillo 50 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +4.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 7:15: Terrez Worthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TEM win probability +27.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:04: Tyriq Starks pass incomplete to Omari Hayes — FAU win probability +10.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:34: CJ Campbell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Tyriq Starks Pass to Omari Hayes for Two-Point Conversion) — FAU win probability +48.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 10 of 11FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 11:52TEM 4th & 8 at FAU 36, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.6%34% to convertField goalTheir call57.6%−<0.142% to makePunt57.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:35FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snapGo for it41.5%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q1 7:47TEM 4th & 15 at midfield, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it57.8%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q1 5:19FAU 4th & 4 at TEM 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.6%48% to convertField goal41.1%−0.440% to makePunt41.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:16FAU 4th & 2 at TEM 9, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.3%54% to convertField goal40.9%−0.489% to makePunt38.5%−2.9average punt
- Q1 0:00TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snapGo for it57.3%−1.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.5%average punt
- Q2 10:02TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 39, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snapGo for it52.5%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.2%average punt
- Q2 7:41FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it46.4%−1.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q2 1:50TEM 4th & 6 at FAU 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snapGo for it51.1%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call51.2%90% to makePunt44.8%−6.4average punt
- Q2 0:48FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 31, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snapGo for it46.7%−2.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 21, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snapGo for it41.8%−3.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q3 13:10FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 34, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 50.9% before the snapGo for it52.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.5%−1.7average punt
- Q3 9:52TEM 4th & 13 at FAU 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snapGo for it45.4%−1.721% to convertField goalTheir call47.1%49% to makePunt45.7%−1.3average punt
- Q3 6:43FAU 4th & 4 at TEM 47, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt56.0%−1.1average punt
- Q3 4:22TEM 4th & 9 at FAU 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snapGo for it45.1%−0.632% to convertField goalTheir call45.6%51% to makePunt43.7%−1.9average punt
- Q3 1:00FAU 4th & 9 at TEM 44, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snapGo for it49.0%−0.732% to convertField goal46.8%−2.927% to makePuntTheir call49.6%average punt
- Q4 13:22TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 44, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt49.8%−2.0average punt
- Q4 10:49TEM 4th & 1 at FAU 43, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.6%70% to convertField goal43.5%−8.228% to makePunt44.8%−6.9average punt
- Q4 6:13FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 30, down 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 23.7% before the snapGo for it20.4%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%−1.3average punt
- Q4 1:52TEM 4th & 8 at FAU 29, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snapGo for it89.9%−0.634% to convertField goalTheir call90.5%58% to makePunt84.6%−5.9average punt
- Q4 1:00FAU 4th & 3 at TEM 17, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.5%51% to convertField goal7.0%−2.580% to makePunt3.3%−6.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 11:53FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.7%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:15TEM Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick76.5%−0.797% to makeGo for twoTheir call77.2%45% to convert
- Q4 0:34FAU Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick16.7%−8.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call25.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1FG7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4957% → 58%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
57.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the TEM 47Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
57.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 15 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+5
57.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 5 yds to the FAU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0843% → 42%
TEMDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3558% → 58%
FAUDrive 4DOWNS12 plays · 71 yds · 4:1442% → 42%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
58.3%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Omari Hayes for 2 yds to the FAU 18Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+25
58.5%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jabari Smith for 25 yds to the TEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
57.6%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the TEM 37Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+20
58.3%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Omari Hayes for 20 yds to the TEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1159% → 58%
Q1 1:07
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-15
59.0%
(01:13) Shotgun Simon,Evan pass complete short right to Evert,Daniel caught at TEM35, for 13 yards to the TEM49 (Philord,Wendol) PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Adams,John) 15 yards from TEM36 to TEM21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD9 plays · 82 yds · 2:5941% → 48%
Q2 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
58.8%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Milan Tucker for 9 yds to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+32
59.1%
Kasen Weisman run for 17 yds to the TEM 49 for a 1ST down Temple Penalty, Personal Foul (Javier Morton) to the TEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-8
56.8%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the TEM 26 Florida Atlantic Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malcolm Lamar) to the TEM 36Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+10
57.8%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Weisman,Kasen pass incomplete short right to Moore,Zeke thrown to TEM22 PENALTY TEM Holding (Lewis,Jaylen) 10 yards from TEM36 to TEM26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
56.8%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 25 yds to the TEM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3254% → 53%
FAUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1447% → 47%
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+16
53.2%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 16 yds to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9MISSED FG14 plays · 65 yds · 5:4152% → 51%
Q2 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+17
51.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
50
+17
54.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jamar Taylor Jr. for 17 yds to the FAU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
55.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 11 yds to the FAU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:4652% → 50%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
48.0%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 1 yd to the FAU 21Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
48.2%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 10 yds to the FAU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+1
49.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEM 12 , Dante Wright returns for 1 yd to the TEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 0:4249% → 49%
Q2 0:29
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+5
48.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 5 yds to the TEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4152% → 51%
TEMDrive 13MISSED FG9 plays · 43 yds · 3:0749% → 47%
FAUDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0454% → 56%
TEMDrive 15FG7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1450% → 54%
Q3 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+19
48.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 19 yds to the FAU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0849% → 49%
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
46.6%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Starks,Tyriq pass incomplete short right to Washington, Jr.,Leon thrown to TEM40 PENALTY FAU Holding (Moore,Zeke) 10 yards from TEM45 to FAU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 15
50
+6
50.0%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the TEM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD15 plays · 87 yds · 8:2650% → 85%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+23
50.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 23 yds to the TEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+4
51.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the TEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
54.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 3 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+19
55.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Dante Wright for 19 yds to the FAU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
57.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to James Della Pesca for 3 yds to the FAU 1Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.2%
Terrez Worthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5127% → 24%
Q4 6:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
76.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19FG12 plays · 40 yds · 4:1384% → 96%
Q4 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+10
84.2%
(04:41) Simon,Evan pass incomplete deep middle to Wright,Dante thrown to FAU22 broken up by Hill,Daedae PENALTY FAU Holding (Brown,Kahzir) 10 yards from TEM34 to TEM44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-5
93.1%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Clarke,Peter) 5 yards from FAU24 to FAU29. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20TD13 plays · 75 yds · 1:028% → 59%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.2%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 5 yds to the FAU 30Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+31
91.2%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 31 yds to the TEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
88.9%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Starks,Tyriq pass incomplete deep middle to Smith, Jr.,Jabari thrown to TEM05 PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Deravil,Elijah) 15 yards from TEM39 to TEM24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
86.7%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 7 yds to the TEM 17Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+9
89.0%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Omari Hayes for 9 yds to the TEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.3%
CJ Campbell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Tyriq Starks Pass to Omari Hayes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:34
CJ Campbell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Tyriq Starks Pass to Omari Hayes for Two-Point Conversion)
-48.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+43.8
TD · Q4 7:15
Terrez Worthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+27.4