Try the model
USF

South Florida 59 at Charlotte 24

CLT
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:10 · Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 27 yds, downed at the USF 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime per score still needed
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense−56.7Score differential−45.0Garbage-time factor−21.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3Time per score still needed−9.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:41: Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +12.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:57: Kelley Joiner run for 54 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +12.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:49: Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — CLT win probability +14.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:13: Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +13.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:38: Deshawn Purdie pass intercepted Brent Austin return for 14 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +12.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 12:16CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14USF 4th & 3 at USF 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:34USF 4th & 2 at CLT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:16CLT 4th & 20 at CLT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24USF 4th & 3 at USF 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38CLT 4th & 11 at USF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:23CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.1%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:26CLT 4th & 14 at USF 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23USF 4th & 4 at CLT 45, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%
    25% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:43CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:26USF 4th & 7 at CLT 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−8.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46USF 4th & 3 at USF 38, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:47CLT 4th & 17 at CLT 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:10CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 5:18CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:55USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:41USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:57USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:49CLT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:13USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:38USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:11USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:43CLT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:34USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:31USF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1INT
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:2150% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
49.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 12 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
49.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+25
49.7%
Bryce Archie run for 25 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
49.6%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Cam Burden return for no gain to the CLT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1850% → 50%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
49.9%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 16 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.0%
Hahsaun Wilson run for no gain to the CLT 39Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
50.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
50.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
49.9%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5550% → 50%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
50.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 2 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
50.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
50.2%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
50.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 45 yds, downed at the CLT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:4650% → 56%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
50.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 4 yds to the CLT 31Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
50.5%
O'Mega Blake run for 5 yds to the CLT 36Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+10
50.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 10 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.1%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
50.9%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Sean Brown for 13 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
51.4%
O'Mega Blake run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+8
51.6%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Colin Weber for 8 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
51.9%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
51.9%
(07:07) PURDIE, Deshawn pass deep to the right complete for 23 yards to BROWN, Sean caught at the USF8 and advanced to the USF8 (AUSTIN, Brent), out of bounds, clock 07:03. PENALTY Before the snap, CLT Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the USF31 to the USF36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+16
51.5%
Terron Kellman run for 16 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
52.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+14
52.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 6 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:2445% → 52%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
54.9%
(05:19) ARCHIE, Bryce pass to the right complete for -5 yards to KEITH, Ta'Ron caught at the USF19 and advanced to the USF20 (WILLIAMS, Chantz), clock 05:12. PENALTY CLT Personal Foul on HOPKINS, Adam enforced 15 yards from the USF25 to the USF40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
54.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 6 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
54.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 7 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
54.2%
(04:28) KEITH, Ta'Ron rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the CLT40 (CONLEY, Ja'Qurious), clock 04:23. PENALTY USF Holding on BOWMAN, Derek enforced 10 yards from the CLT47 to the USF43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+4
55.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 4 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+4
55.4%
(03:35) ARCHIE, Bryce pass short up the middle incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the CLT49, clock 03:31. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on BURDEN, Cam enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the CLT49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
54.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 8 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
54.0%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the CLT 40Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
54.1%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 41Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+20
55.0%
Bryce Archie run for 20 yds to the CLT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
53.7%
(02:12) QB Keeper ARCHIE, Bryce rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards, ARCHIE, Bryce fumbled at CLT25 , recovered by USF ARCHIE, Bryce at the CLT25, returned 0 yards to the CLT25, End of Play, clock 02:13. PENALTY CLT Offsides on JACKSON, Charlie enforced 5 yards from the CLT21 to the CLT16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 5
OPP 16
+16
48.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 16 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3552% → 51%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
52.0%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for 13 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
52.2%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the CLT 36Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-15
52.0%
(00:30) PURDIE, Deshawn pass deep to the right complete for 31 yards to BLAKE, O'Mega caught at the USF44 and advanced to the USF33 (KNOX, Ben), clock 00:25. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on WEBER, Colin enforced 15 yards to the CLT21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+4
51.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4949% → 49%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
50.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
50.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 5 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
50.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
51.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:3853% → 56%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
52.7%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Isaiah Myers for 13 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
54.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
53.4%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+14
53.2%
Deshawn Purdie run for 14 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
55.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 11 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
55.9%
Deshawn Purdie run for 5 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
56.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-15
55.5%
(09:32) PURDIE, Deshawn pass short up the middle incomplete intended for WEBER, Colin thrown to the USF22, clock 09:28. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on BROWN, Sean enforced 15 yards to the USF42 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+9
53.7%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Cartevious Norton for 9 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
56.2%
Stephen Rusnak 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5844% → 57%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
54.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 11 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
54.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
53.9%
Bryce Archie run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 2
50
+44
54.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 44 yds to the CLT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 4:0846% → 51%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.7%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
46.0%
Terron Kellman run for 7 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
47.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
46.1%
Terron Kellman run for 1 yd to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
47.4%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Jairus Mack for 7 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
48.3%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
48.3%
Deshawn Purdie sacked by Jahari Grant and D.J. Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 17
50
0
45.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 17
50
+3
44.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
50.9%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11MISSED FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 2:1049% → 49%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
50.8%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 11 yds to the USF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
50.6%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 22Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
54.8%
Bryce Archie run for 5 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+7
54.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
53.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 15 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
51.5%
South Florida Penalty, Illegal Formation (Payten Singletary) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
51.7%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+6
52.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+7
52.9%
Bryce Archie run for 7 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.3%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
50.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 3 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+53
50.7%
Nico Gramatica 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
40.4%
(00:05) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at CLT30 (team loss of 5), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1746% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.4%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 24Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
46.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 6 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
45.7%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
44.5%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 32 yds, downed at the USF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:3457% → 69%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
43.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 8 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+54
30.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 54 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:0332% → 49%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
31.7%
(12:52) PURDIE, Deshawn pass deep to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS JR., Duane broken up by AUSTIN, Brent at the CLT50, clock 12:44. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on AUSTIN, Brent enforced 15 yards to the CLT29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
32.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Jairus Mack for 25 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+42
34.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Sean Brown for 42 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
35.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
35.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the USF 2Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:3656% → 74%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+34
43.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 34 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+15
40.2%
(10:01) ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SINGLETON, Keshaun thrown to the CLT0, clock 09:56. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on BALFOUR, Dontae enforced 15 yards to the CLT19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
39.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+9
39.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 9 yds to the CLT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5729% → 29%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
28.8%
Lacota Dippre run for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 22 Deshawn Purdie fumbled, recovered by CLT Deshawn Purdie D. Purdie return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+3
27.8%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Colin Weber for 3 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+16
26.4%
Deshawn Purdie run for 16 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
29.2%
Deshawn Purdie sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the CLT 32 Deshawn Purdie fumbled, recovered by USF Bernard Gooden , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3975% → 83%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
24.6%
Sean Atkins run for 14 yds to the CLT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
24.1%
(06:32) KEITH, Ta'Ron rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the CLT7 (CULP, Elijah;MCDANIEL, Mordecai), clock 06:17. PENALTY USF Holding on PERRY, RJ enforced 10 yards from the CLT18 to the CLT28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
24.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+5
24.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 5 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 15
OPP 23
-5
24.6%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Payten Singletary) to the CLT 28Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 20
OPP 28
+13
24.5%
Bryce Archie run for 13 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
16.8%
John Cannon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19INT TD
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:4918% → 6%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-6
18.3%
Deshawn Purdie sacked by Tawfiq Byard for a loss of 6 yards to the CLT 3Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 16
OWN 3
-14
6.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass intercepted Brent Austin return for 14 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:196% → 1%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
6.4%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 13 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
6.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
6.2%
Cartevious Norton run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 29Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-5
5.8%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Jordan Spasojevic-Moko) to the CLT 24Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+5
5.4%
(02:08) PURDIE, Deshawn pass short to the left complete for 8 yards to HOPKINS, Adam to the CLT32 (LEE, Jarvis), clock 02:01. PENALTY USF Offsides on WILLIAMS II, Michael enforced 5 yards from the CLT24 to the CLT29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+5
5.3%
South Florida Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the CLT 34Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+25
0.8%
Mac Harris 25 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:211% → 4%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
0.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
0.8%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+37
0.8%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Isaiah Myers for 37 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
0.9%
South Florida Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the USF 30Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 5
OPP 30
0
0.9%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+14
0.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 14 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
0.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the USF 15Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
3.8%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Isaiah Myers for 15 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
0.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 45 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.4%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
0.3%
(12:51) NORTON, Cartevious rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT26 (GORDON IV, DJ;JENKINS, Ryan), clock 12:45. PENALTY USF Holding on KNOX, Ben enforced 10 yards from the CLT27 to the CLT37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
0.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Gus McGee for 7 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+17
0.2%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Isaiah Myers for 17 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.3%
Deshawn Purdie pass intercepted Fred Gaskin return for no gain to the USF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
0.5%
Israel Carter run for 8 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
0.5%
Yasias Young run for 5 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.5%
Yasias Young run for no gain to the USF 31Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
0.4%
Yasias Young run for 7 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
0.3%
Yasias Young run for no gain to the USF 38Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+8
0.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for 8 yds to the CLT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-7
0.1%
Deshawn Purdie sacked by Jamie Pettway for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 20Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
0.3%
Charlotte Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Treyveon McGee) to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
0.2%
Alvon Isaac run for 3 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+25
0.2%
Alvon Isaac run for 25 yds to the CLT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Alvon Isaac run for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 27 yds, downed at the USF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
0.2%
Israel Carter run for 7 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+6
0.2%
Jaylen Johnson run for 6 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
0.1%
Jaylen Johnson run for 7 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
0.1%
Jaylen Johnson run for 5 yds to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
0.1%
Jaylen Johnson run for 4 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
0.1%
Jaylen Johnson run for 5 yds to the CLT 18Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+6
0.1%
Jaylen Johnson run for 6 yds to the CLT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.1%
(00:29) [SG] Kneel down by TEAM at CLT12 (team loss of 0), clock 00:22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:49
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
+14
TD · Q3 9:13
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q3 12:57
Kelley Joiner run for 54 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com