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UNT

North Texas 27 at UTSA 48

UTSA
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2024 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:47 · Chandler Morris pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense+23.6Score differential+8.2Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Pregame prior+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Tate Sandell 44 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +9.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:29: Shane Porter run for 39 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +13.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:28: Shane Porter run for 43 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNT win probability +12.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:27: Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 14 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +25.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 43%).
  5. TD · Q4 9:15: Robert Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Owen McCown pass to Patrick Overmyer for Two-Point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +9.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:22UTSA 4th & 10 at UNT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:47UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:59UTSA 4th & 1 at UNT 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−1.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−7.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:49UNT 4th & 3 at UTSA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−5.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:20UTSA 4th & 5 at UNT 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:32UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 32, down 17
    Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:28UNT 4th & 5 at UTSA 16, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 6 at UNT 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:31UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:48UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:29UNT 4th & 1 at UTSA 39, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−2.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:55UTSA 4th & 10 at UNT 10, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−7.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:04UTSA 4th & 3 at UNT 17, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−6.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:57UTSA 4th & 6 at UNT 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:47UNT 4th & 2 at UTSA 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:42UNT 4th & 5 at UTSA 40, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:38UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:41UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:42UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:43UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:29UNT Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:28UNT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:27UNT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:15UTSA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:33UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3854% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.1%
Robert Henry run for 9 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
54.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 7 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
54.3%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
54.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 10 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
54.7%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
54.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-8
54.9%
Owen McCown sacked by Ethan Wesloski and Jordan Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the UNT 47Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
54.5%
Caile Hogan punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2846% → 45%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
54.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
54.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds to the UNT 15Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-3
54.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 12Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 10
OWN 12
-5
55.1%
North Texas Penalty, Illegal Snap on WALKER, Jenson enforced (-5 Yards) to the UNT 7Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 15
OWN 7
0
55.1%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UNT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:0555% → 59%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
55.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 4 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
55.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+25
55.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 25 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
55.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 7 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+9
55.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 9 yds to the UNT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.8%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UNT 1Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0242% → 41%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 8 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
57.6%
Shane Porter run for 7 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
58.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 8 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
57.7%
Shane Porter run for 7 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
57.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 46Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-10
58.7%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Zah Frazier return for 10 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:4060% → 66%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
60.1%
Bryson Donnell run for 8 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+51
65.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 51 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3866% → 68%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
50
+8
65.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 8 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
66.1%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
66.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 9 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+1
66.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 1 yd to the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
67.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 29 yds UTSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNT 32Similar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 13
OPP 32
+5
67.5%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
68.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 6 yds to the UNT 21Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
68.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UNT 20Similar
Q2 14:59
4TH & 1
OPP 20
-1
67.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
60.7%
Shane Porter run for 79 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5761% → 73%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.2%
Robert Henry run for no gain to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 12 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
62.2%
Willie McCoy run for 8 yds to the UTSA 45Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
63.1%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
63.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 19 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
63.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 6 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
64.1%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
63.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 4 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
64.5%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the UNT 15Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
64.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+5
64.1%
Owen McCown run for 5 yds to the UNT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
65.1%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 12Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
65.5%
Owen McCown run for 5 yds to the UNT 7Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 7 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:5230% → 28%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
70.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 33 yds to the UTSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
69.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
69.1%
Shane Porter run for no gain to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+7
71.0%
Chandler Morris run for 7 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
71.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2373% → 81%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 8 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+38
74.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 38 yds to the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
75.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 2 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
75.7%
David Amador II run for 3 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
75.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
80.7%
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4721% → 20%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.6%
Shane Porter run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
78.5%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
79.1%
Shane Porter run for 2 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
80.4%
Sawyer Evans punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-24
82.6%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Brian Nelson II return for 24 yds to the UTSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4323% → 23%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
77.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
77.9%
DT Sheffield run for 2 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+3
76.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the UTSA 16Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 5
OPP 16
0
77.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 1:2482% → 92%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
82.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 12 yds to the UTSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.2%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+14
84.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 14 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
85.6%
Owen McCown sacked by Breylon Charles for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 39Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+5
85.6%
Owen McCown run for 5 yds to the UTSA 44Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+5
85.1%
MCCOWN, Owen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CARPENTER, Chris thrown to the UNT25. PENALTY UNT Offsides on DAWKINS, Terrell enforced 5 yards from the UTSA44 to the UTSA49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
85.3%
Robert Henry run for 9 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
86.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to JJ Sparkman for 12 yds to the UNT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
86.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 4 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
83.1%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
82.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
92.1%
Tate Sandell 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:319% → 9%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
90.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 10 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
90.7%
Chandler Morris run for 2 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-1
91.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 28Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
91.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Sawyer Evans punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 32Similar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
91.2%
(13:24) QB Keeper MCCOWN, Owen rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UTSA36 (WHITTER, Shane), clock 13:17. PENALTY UTSA Holding on GARTH, Jaylen enforced 10 yards from the UTSA32 to the UTSA22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2291% → 92%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+5
91.2%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+19
91.5%
Robert Henry run for 19 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
92.4%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 6
50
-1
92.7%
Chris Carpenter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 49Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
92.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
92.2%
Caile Hogan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 3:138% → 21%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
91.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
92.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+8
92.5%
Chandler Morris run for 8 yds to the UNT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 7 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
92.6%
Shane Porter run for 10 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
92.6%
(08:46) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WARD JR., Damon thrown to the UTSA25, clock 08:41. PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference on HARRIS, Denver enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the UTSA48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
92.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 2 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
93.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 5 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
93.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+39
79.5%
Shane Porter run for 39 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:2083% → 92%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
83.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 7 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
83.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 27Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
83.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
85.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTSA 34Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+42
85.1%
Owen McCown run for 42 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
88.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+18
88.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 18 yds to the UNT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
88.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UNT 4Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.1%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
88.8%
Owen McCown sacked by Chavez Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 10Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
91.5%
Tate Sandell 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2711% → 23%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
89.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Oscar Hammond for 32 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
76.9%
Shane Porter run for 43 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:2381% → 92%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
80.7%
Owen McCown run for 36 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
83.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 15 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
84.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
84.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+7
83.9%
Bryson Donnell run for 7 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
92.2%
Tate Sandell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3612% → 39%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
87.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 27 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
85.3%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the UTSA 47Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+33
86.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 33 yds to the UTSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
61.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 14 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:4181% → 95%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
80.6%
(11:56) HENRY, Robert rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UTSA22 (SMITH, Jaylen), clock 11:50. PENALTY UTSA Holding on GODINET, Cory enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the UTSA18 to the UTSA9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+24
79.4%
Robert Henry run for 9 yds to the UTSA 18 for a 1ST down North Texas Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Quinton Hammonds) to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+53
81.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 53 yds to the UNT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
85.0%
Owen McCown run for 7 yds to the UNT 7Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
85.6%
(10:01) MCCOWN, Owen pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS, Houston broken up by HAMMONDS, Quinton at the UNT0, clock 09:57. PENALTY UNT Holding on SMITH, Jaylen enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UNT7 to the UNT3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.7%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the UNT 2Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.4%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Owen McCown pass to Patrick Overmyer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:088% → 5%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted Zah Frazier return for no gain to the UTSA 24Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
94.9%
(09:06) MCCOWN, Owen pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CARPENTER, Chris thrown to the UNT33, clock 09:00. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on ALLEN JR., BJ enforced 15 yards to the UTSA39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:0296% → 96%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
95.5%
Owen McCown run for 8 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
95.7%
Bryson Donnell run for 6 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
95.9%
Bryson Donnell run for no gain to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+4
96.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 4 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Caile Hogan punt for 38 yds, downed at the UNT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:027% → 6%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.5%
Shane Porter run for 1 yd to the UNT 21Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
93.7%
(05:22) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WARD JR., Damon thrown to the UNT43, clock 05:19. PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference on FRAZIER, Zah enforced 15 yards to the UNT36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
92.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 9 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
92.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 14 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
92.7%
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+15
94.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 15 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
93.5%
Chandler Morris run for 9 yds to the UTSA 16Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
93.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-1
93.7%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 17Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 2
OPP 17
0
94.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
99.6%
Robert Henry run for 83 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
99.4%
Makenzie McGill II run for 10 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 9 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+8
99.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 8 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Chandler Morris sacked by Tyan Milton for 0 yards to the UTSA 45Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 5 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.8%
(00:37) [NH] Kneel down by MCCOWN, Owen at UTSA39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:27
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 14 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q3 7:29
Shane Porter run for 39 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 1:28
Shane Porter run for 43 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com