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ECU

East Carolina 38 at Tulsa 31

TLSA
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2024 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:32 · Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony Smith
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior−6.6Home team on offense+14.4Garbage-time factor+2.3Score differential+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:37: Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +1.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:00: Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +5.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:51: Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 39 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:48: London Montgomery 16 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick) — ECU win probability +1.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:30: Rahjai Harris 23 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad PAT failed) — ECU win probability +1.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:21TLSA 4th & 5 at ECU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:19TLSA 4th & 12 at ECU 36, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:25TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:24ECU 4th & 18 at ECU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:01TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−4.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:08TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:08TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:22TLSA 4th & 24 at ECU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−4.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:16ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:14ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:32ECU 4th & 4 at TLSA 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−8.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:32ECU 4th & 4 at TLSA 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−8.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:39TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:32ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:01ECU 4th & 1 at TLSA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−1.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−5.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:35TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:34TLSA 4th & 2 at ECU 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:37ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:00ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:51TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:2618% → 20%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
17.8%
Bill Jackson run for 11 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
18.1%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+11
18.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 11 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
18.6%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 48Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+14
18.9%
Cooper Legas run for 14 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
19.2%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Duffel,Brody) 5 yards from ECU34 to ECU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+10
19.3%
Bill Jackson run for 10 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
19.8%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
19.7%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
19.8%
Seth Morgan 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4880% → 79%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 2 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
20.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 5 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
20.6%
Katin Houser sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 27Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
21.0%
PENALTY ECU False Start (Riles,Desirrio) 5 yards from ECU27 to ECU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+21
21.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 46 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 21 yds to the ECU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1722% → 23%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
21.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the ECU 43Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+32
22.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Luke McGary for 32 yds to the ECU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
22.3%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Anthony rush left for 2 yards loss to the ECU13 (Ware,Suirad) PENALTY ECU Offside (McKenzie,Jaden) 5 yards from ECU11 to ECU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
22.3%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Watkins,Anthony rush left for 2 yards loss to the ECU13 (Ware,Suirad) PENALTY ECU Offside (McKenzie,Jaden) 5 yards from ECU11 to ECU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 5
OPP 6
+1
22.6%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the ECU 5Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
23.1%
Kamdyn Benjamin run for 5 yds Kamdyn Benjamin fumbled, recovered by ECU Omar RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:0977% → 79%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
22.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 22 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+47
22.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 47 yds to the TLSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
22.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the TLSA 10Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+6
22.4%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short right to Wright Jr.,Winston thrown to TLS05 broken up by Cannady,Jehlen PENALTY TLS Pass Interference (Cannady,Jehlen) 6 yards from TLS10 to TLS04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+6
22.4%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short right to Wright Jr.,Winston thrown to TLS05 broken up by Cannady,Jehlen PENALTY TLS Pass Interference (Cannady,Jehlen) 6 yards from TLS10 to TLS04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5DOWNS
16 plays · 40 yds · 5:0521% → 23%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
21.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+18
21.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 18 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
22.4%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete short middle to Williams,Joseph thrown to ECU40 PENALTY ECU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TLS44 to TLS49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
22.4%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete short middle to Williams,Joseph thrown to ECU40 PENALTY ECU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TLS44 to TLS49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+7
22.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 7 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
23.2%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
23.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Ethan Hall for 3 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-5
23.5%
PENALTY TLS False Start 5 yards from ECU38 to ECU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+9
23.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Bill Jackson for 9 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
24.2%
Lloyd Avant run for 7 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-1
24.4%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-5
24.2%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Tanner,Jack) 5 yards from ECU28 to ECU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-5
24.2%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Tanner,Jack) 5 yards from ECU28 to ECU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-3
24.3%
Kirk Francis run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 36Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
23.2%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6INT
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:1377% → 77%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
23.3%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-2
23.0%
London Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 37Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+10
24.2%
Katin Houser run for 10 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
23.3%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
23.3%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
23.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
23.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 5 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+37
23.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Chase Sowell for 37 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
23.1%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 5 yards to the TLSA 6 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ECU Katin HouserSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
23.1%
(11:49) Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short right to Riles,Desirrio thrown to TLS02 PENALTY ECU Personal Foul (Sowell,Chase) 15 yards from TLS06 to TLS21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
23.1%
(11:49) Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short right to Riles,Desirrio thrown to TLS02 PENALTY ECU Personal Foul (Sowell,Chase) 15 yards from TLS06 to TLS21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0525% → 25%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
25.0%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 9Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-1
25.2%
Cooper Legas run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 8Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+1
24.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Bill Jackson for 1 yd to the TLSA 9Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
24.6%
Angus Davies punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:1475% → 82%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
25.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 15 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
24.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
24.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
24.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 7 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+12
23.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Chase Sowell for 12 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
23.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 20 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
18 plays · 76 yds · 4:5619% → 28%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
18.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 14 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
19.6%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
20.1%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the TLSA 44Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-15
19.4%
Tulsa Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TLSA 37Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-15
19.4%
Tulsa Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TLSA 37Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+7
18.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Connor Vaughn for 7 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+5
18.7%
PENALTY ECU Offside (Perry,Shane) 5 yards from TLS44 to TLS49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.1%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
19.9%
Cooper Legas run for 8 yds to the ECU 43Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
20.2%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 42Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
19.3%
PENALTY ECU Offside (Lampley,J.D.) 5 yards from ECU42 to ECU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
20.4%
(02:32) Shotgun Legas,Cooper rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ECU29 (Ware,Suirad) PENALTY TLS Holding (Tanner,Jack) 10 yards from ECU37 to ECU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
20.4%
(02:32) Shotgun Legas,Cooper rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ECU29 (Ware,Suirad) PENALTY TLS Holding (Tanner,Jack) 10 yards from ECU37 to ECU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
19.9%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+8
19.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Luke McGary for 8 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+39
28.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 39 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:2674% → 73%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
25.8%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
26.5%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
27.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds Winston Wright Jr. fumbled, recovered by TLSA Buddha GarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:3174% → 52%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
26.1%
Katin Houser run for 7 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+10
26.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.2%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
25.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
24.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 4 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
49.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+52
47.8%
Andrew Conrad 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 3:3049% → 41%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
50.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
49.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
50.3%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
53.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 11 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
52.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
53.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 1 yd to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-10
54.7%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass complete short right to Wright Jr.,Winston caught at TLS45, for 35 yards to the TLS07 (Lee,Jaxon) PENALTY ECU Holding (Poku,Emmanuel) 10 yards from TLS42 to ECU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-10
54.7%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass complete short right to Wright Jr.,Winston caught at TLS45, for 35 yards to the TLS07 (Lee,Jaxon) PENALTY ECU Holding (Poku,Emmanuel) 10 yards from TLS42 to ECU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 18
OWN 48
0
57.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for no gain to the ECU 48Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 18
OWN 48
+8
59.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 8 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1759% → 58%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
58.8%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 16Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-3
59.3%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 13Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
59.0%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
58.3%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds , Winston Wright Jr. returns for no gain to the ECU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:0442% → 43%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
58.3%
Winston Wright Jr. run for 10 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
58.1%
Winston Wright Jr. run for no gain to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+26
58.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Chase Sowell for 26 yds to the TLSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
57.0%
London Montgomery 16 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:1963% → 63%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
63.0%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
63.6%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete short left to Avant,Lloyd thrown to TLS22 PENALTY TLS Holding (McGary,Luke) 10 yards from TLS23 to TLS13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
63.6%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete short left to Avant,Lloyd thrown to TLS22 PENALTY TLS Holding (McGary,Luke) 10 yards from TLS23 to TLS13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+5
63.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 5 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
63.7%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+3
63.2%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds , Winston Wright Jr. returns for 3 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+3
63.2%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds , Winston Wright Jr. returns for 3 yds to the ECU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:2336% → 36%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
64.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-15
64.5%
East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECU 23Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-15
64.5%
East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:4370% → 68%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
69.9%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the ECU 14Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-10
70.6%
(05:38) Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete short right thrown to ECU05 PENALTY TLS Holding (Burnett,Reynard) 10 yards from ECU14 to ECU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-10
70.6%
(05:38) Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete short right thrown to ECU05 PENALTY TLS Holding (Burnett,Reynard) 10 yards from ECU14 to ECU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 19
OPP 24
-5
70.2%
Cooper Legas sacked by Omar Rogers for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 29Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 24
OPP 29
0
69.6%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for no gain to the ECU 29Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 24
OPP 29
+47
67.9%
Seth Morgan 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5432% → 28%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
68.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Dustyn Hall) to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+10
69.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 10 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
69.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
70.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+10
72.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 36 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 10 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:5373% → 77%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
73.4%
East Carolina Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
74.1%
Bill Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 41Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+15
73.8%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete deep left to Benjamin,Kamdyn thrown to ECU20 PENALTY ECU Pass Interference (Brown-Murray,Isaiah) 15 yards from ECU41 to ECU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
75.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Luke McGary for 5 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+7
76.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 7 yds to the ECU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
76.6%
Joseph Williams 14 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4527% → 20%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
73.3%
Winston Wright Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+2
77.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+3
78.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 3 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+2
79.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 2 yds to the TLSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5378% → 81%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
77.9%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
79.3%
Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
78.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 1 yd to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
80.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 1 yd to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
81.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Luke McGary for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 6
50
+50
80.8%
Joseph Williams 50 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:3422% → 19%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
78.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 27 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
75.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 13 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.2%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick SmithSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
75.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick SmithSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+6
77.0%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the TLSA 19Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
81.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
81.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4982% → 81%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
81.7%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
82.2%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 20Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
81.0%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0016% → 14%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
83.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyler SavageSimilar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
85.0%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+9
85.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyler Savage for 9 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
82.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 15 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
81.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
83.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+3
85.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
88.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the TLSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
86.3%
Rahjai Harris 23 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4890% → 90%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.0%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
90.9%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
90.8%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
89.8%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Winston Wright Jr. returns for 2 yds to the ECU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:229% → 8%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+27
90.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 27 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
90.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 17 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
91.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
92.5%
Rahjai Harris 24 Yd Run (Rahjai Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 1:2295% → 98%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
94.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 24 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+44
95.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 44 yds to the ECU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
96.7%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the ECU 5Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.8%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the ECU 2Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.4%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 1 yd to the ECU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
95.7%
Katin Houser run for no gain to the ECU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-95.7
TD · Q2 1:51
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 39 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 7:00
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com