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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:35 · Dante Atton punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Bryce Bohanon at the TULN 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:16: Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +0.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:03: Darian Mensah pass complete to Shazz Preston for 53 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:14: Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:45: Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:11: Arnold Barnes III run for 5 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEM made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 7:00TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q1 1:27TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it92.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.1%average punt
- Q2 14:08TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 28, down 7Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:06TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snapGo for it91.1%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.3%average punt
- Q2 11:45TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.5%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 9:35TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 3:00TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 0:52TEM 4th & 11 at TULN 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 13:39TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 30, down 28Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:08TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 28, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 3:42TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 18, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:15TULN 4th & 6 at TEM 6, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:04TEM 4th & 15 at TEM 20, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:59TULN 4th & 11 at TULN 34, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 8:21TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 7, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:00TEM 4th & 1 at TULN 19, down 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.177% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TEM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 10:16TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:03TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:14TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:45TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:11TULN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:23TULN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:23TULN Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:09TEM Touchdown, down 46 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4095% → 95%
TEMDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 3:046% → 6%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
94.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Landon Morris for 11 yds to the TEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
94.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 6
50
+5
93.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 5 yds to the TULN 45Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
93.9%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Clarke,Peter) 5 yards from TLN45 to TLN50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
94.0%
Dante Atton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 5:2694% → 93%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
93.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the TULN 25 Tulane Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yulkeith Brown) to the TULN 15Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-5
93.0%
PENALTY TLN False Start (Miller Jr.,Anthony) 5 yards from TEM48 to TLN47. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 2:067% → 8%
TULNDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5593% → 92%
Q2 13:06
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.0%
Will Karoll punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Stewart at the TEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:188% → 8%
TULNDrive 7TD2 plays · 61 yds · 0:3492% → 95%
TEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:206% → 6%
Q2 9:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
93.8%
Dante Atton punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Bryce Bohanon at the TULN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD8 plays · 57 yds · 4:1194% → 97%
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
94.4%
PENALTY TLN False Start (Hurst,Shadre) 5 yards from TLN43 to TLN38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+14
94.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 14 yds to the TEM 48Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
93.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Alex Bauman for 2 yds to the TEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
94.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Arnold Barnes III for 3 yds to the TEM 48Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+46
93.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 46 yds to the TEM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 2:053% → 3%
TULNDrive 11TD8 plays · 59 yds · 1:0698% → 99%
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
98.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 9 yds to the TEM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 0:471% → 1%
TULNDrive 13INT4 plays · 34 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
99.3%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass incomplete deep left to Fleming,Dontae thrown to TEM26 PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Richardson,Torey) 15 yards from TLN29 to TLN44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:094% → 1%
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
96.0%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Faminu,James) 5 yards from TEM24 to TEM19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+2
99.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jamar Taylor Jr. for 2 yds to the TEM 30Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Dante Atton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD10 plays · 68 yds · 5:2199% → 100%
Q3 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+14
99.4%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 14 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
99.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 23 yds to the TEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+6
99.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 6 yds to the TEM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:540% → 0%
TULNDrive 18TD4 plays · 67 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
TEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
Evan Simon sacked by Matthew Fobbs-White for a loss of 2 yards to the TEM 23Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
99.8%
Evan Simon sacked by Gerrod Henderson for a loss of 5 yards to the TEM 18Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Dante Atton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20FG8 plays · 50 yds · 4:09100% → 100%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
99.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Phat Watts for 27 yds to the TEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
99.9%
Evan Simon sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 8 yards to the TEM 20 Evan Simon fumbled, recovered by TEM Melvin Siani , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Dante Atton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
TEMDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:240% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24TD3 plays · 42 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
TEMDrive 25TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
100.0%
Terrez Worthy run for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26FUMBLE5 plays · 18 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
Trey Cornist run for 6 yds to the TULN 28 Trey Cornist fumbled, recovered by TEM Elijah DeravilSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 27DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
99.9%
Evan Simon sacked by Javon Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the TULN 35 Evan Simon fumbled, recovered by TEM Evan Simon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+16
100.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Daniel Evert for 16 yds to the TULN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 28END OF GAME7 plays · 25 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:14
Arnold Barnes III run for 2 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q2 11:03
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shazz Preston for 53 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 1:45
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
+1