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NAVY

Navy 28 at South Florida 7

USF
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:24 · Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 1 yd to the USF 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense−11.0Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:26: Brandon Chatman run for 20 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:03: Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 9 yds to the USF 25 — NAVY win probability +5.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:02: Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 38 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59: Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 31 — USF win probability +8.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:27: Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 47 — NAVY win probability +6.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 2:28USF 4th & 9 at USF 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:00USF 4th & 5 at NAVY 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:24NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:47USF 4th & 1 at USF 24, down 14
    Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:24NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:34USF 4th & 10 at USF 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:45NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:40USF 4th & 13 at USF 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:14NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:07USF 4th & 3 at USF 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:38NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:29NAVY 4th & 3 at USF 49, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:00USF 4th & 8 at USF 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.6%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:45NAVY 4th & 2 at USF 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:30USF 4th & 2 at NAVY 5, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:08NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:37NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:02NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:45NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:06USF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 2:1850% → 51%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
50.0%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 28Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+8
50.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
50.2%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
49.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2INT
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:1250% → 50%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
49.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
49.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
49.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
49.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the USF 43Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+37
49.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 37 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
49.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 19Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-11
49.7%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Kyle Jacob return for 11 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 6:4851% → 59%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
49.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
48.6%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+9
48.4%
Amin Hassan run for 9 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
47.9%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
47.5%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+8
47.4%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
47.0%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-3
46.8%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 46Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+12
46.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 12 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
46.2%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
46.2%
Daba Fofana run for 12 yds to the USF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
45.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the USF 20Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
41.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 20 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5642% → 42%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.4%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
42.1%
Ta'Ron Keith run for no gain to the USF 26Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
41.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
41.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:2459% → 61%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
40.8%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
40.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
39.7%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 49Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
39.3%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-3
39.0%
Blake Horvath sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 49 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by USF Decarius Hawthorne , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5142% → 40%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.0%
Sean Atkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
41.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+18
40.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 18 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
42.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
41.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+4
40.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-7
40.1%
Bryce Archie sacked by Luke Pirris and Landon Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the NAVY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3462% → 64%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.7%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
36.7%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.8%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
35.7%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-1
35.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 46Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+1
35.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 1 yd to the USF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3535% → 34%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
35.3%
Bryce Archie run for 4 yds to the USF 19Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
34.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
34.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 24Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+49
33.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 26Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
33.5%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1666% → 66%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
33.8%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 21Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
33.8%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+2
34.2%
Amin Hassan run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+5
34.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 5 yds to the USF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4333% → 32%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
33.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+56
32.9%
(07:08) KEITH, Ta'Ron rush to the right for a gain of 56 yards to the USF33 (WILLIAMS JR., Mbiti), 1ST DOWN, clock 07:03. PENALTY USF Holding on SINGLETON, Keshaun NAV Personal Foul on WILLIAMS JR., Mbiti , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
32.5%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
32.2%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+14
32.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 53 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for 14 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3568% → 68%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
32.1%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-5
31.7%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 27Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
31.9%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+1
32.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Amin Hassan for 1 yd to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+22
32.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 59 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 22 yds to the USF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5431% → 30%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
31.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
31.6%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-5
31.0%
Bryce Archie sacked by MarcAnthony Parker for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 32Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
29.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 54 yds, downed at the NAVY 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1269% → 72%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
30.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+9
29.9%
Daba Fofana run for 9 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
29.2%
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
28.3%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+4
28.3%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+16
28.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 16 yds to the USF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:4023% → 27%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
22.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 9 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+6
22.9%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 6 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
24.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 5 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+15
26.2%
Navy Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Jacob) to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-36
27.0%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Irabonoise Oniha return for 36 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:1077% → 90%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
23.2%
Alex Tecza run for 15 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
10.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 38 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5219% → 18%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
19.0%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 32Similar
Q3 14:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
18.9%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
18.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 40 yds, downed at the NAVY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:2887% → 90%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
13.5%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
13.1%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
12.9%
Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
10.9%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 46Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+1
10.1%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 47Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
9.8%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
10.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:0315% → 14%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
15.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
14.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+11
14.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 11 yds to the USF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
14.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
14.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Brandon Winton for 6 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+35
14.2%
Bryce Archie run for 35 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
13.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-9
14.0%
Bryce Archie sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 44 Bryce Archie fumbled, recovered by NAVY Jordan Sanders , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5892% → 94%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
7.9%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
7.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+2
7.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
6.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2510% → 7%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
10.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the USF 13Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+2
8.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+1
7.8%
JeyQuan Smith run for 1 yd to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
7.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 22 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
7.6%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
7.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 2 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
7.2%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
7.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 47 yds, downed at the NAVY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 7:0595% → 99%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
4.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+13
4.6%
Blake Horvath run for 13 yds to the NAVY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
4.4%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
4.2%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
4.0%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
3.6%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
3.4%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+2
3.3%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+34
3.5%
Landon Robinson run for 34 yds to the USF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
2.1%
Blake Horvath sacked by Tawfiq Byard for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 25Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 17
OPP 25
-2
2.0%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 27Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 19
OPP 27
+17
1.9%
Daba Fofana run for 17 yds to the USF 10Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
0.6%
Blake Horvath run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:141% → 0%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
0.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 6 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.5%
Bryce Archie run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
0.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+48
0.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 48 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
0.4%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 18Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+9
0.4%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 9 yds to the NAVY 9Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+4
0.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 4 yds to the NAVY 5Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
0.3%
Bryce Archie run for no gain to the NAVY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
0.4%
Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+1
0.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
0.3%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
0.2%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 17Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
0.2%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+2
0.2%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+8
0.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 60 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 8 yds to the USF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:510% → 1%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 3 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 8 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
0.1%
Bryce Archie sacked by Chreign LaFond for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 31Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Brandon Winton for no gain to the USF 31Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+21
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 21 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+20
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 20 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Brandon Winton for 8 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+7
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
1.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 13 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.3%
Shane Reynolds run for no gain to the USF 48Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
0.3%
(00:31) Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at USF50 (team loss of 2), clock 00:22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:02
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 38 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-11.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 31
+8.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:27
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 47
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com