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RICE

Rice 20 at Memphis 27

MEM
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2024 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:12 · Alex Bacchetta punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+16.6Home team on offense−3.6Garbage-time factor−0.9Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:21: Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 9 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +9.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:28: Mario Anderson Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +7.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:38: E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 27 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +11.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:42: Brandon Thomas run for 14 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +12.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 5 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +11.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:27RICE 4th & 8 at MEM 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20RICE 4th & 7 at MEM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:39MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:24RICE 4th & 5 at MEM 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:12RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:17RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:30MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.3%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:25MEM 4th & 29 at MEM 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:25MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 29, up 4
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:04RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:06RICE 4th & 12 at RICE 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:18MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:11RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:23MEM 4th & 3 at RICE 24, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:55RICE 4th & 3 at MEM 5, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:21MEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:28MEM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38RICE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:42MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:55RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3127% → 27%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 8 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
73.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 5 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.1%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 38Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
73.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 19 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
72.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
72.7%
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
72.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Quinton Jackson for no gain to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
72.6%
Conor Hunt punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4273% → 72%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
72.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 11Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
72.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
72.3%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Sean Fresch return for no gain to the MEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1428% → 29%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
71.9%
Dean Connors run for 11 yds to the MEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
71.7%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the MEM 6Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
71.5%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 7Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
71.4%
Tim Horn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4172% → 70%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
71.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 23Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
71.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 3 yds to the MEM 26Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
70.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 13 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
71.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
71.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
70.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+48
70.3%
Joshua Sloan punt for 48 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for no gain to the RICE 14 , returns for 3 yds to the RICE 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:0629% → 34%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
70.9%
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the RICE 16Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+33
70.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 33 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
69.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 4 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+6
69.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 6 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
69.1%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
68.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 4 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
67.9%
(02:00) WARNER, E.J. pass short to the right incomplete intended for CONNORS, Dean thrown to the MEM27, clock 01:58. PENALTY MEM Roughing the Passer on HUDSON, Matt enforced 15 yards from the MEM30 to the MEM15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
67.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
67.8%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the MEM 13Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+3
67.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 3 yds to the MEM 10Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
65.8%
Tim Horn 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3467% → 66%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 7 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
67.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
66.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
66.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2834% → 36%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
66.0%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
65.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+9
65.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 9 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
64.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 4 yds to the RICE 40Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
63.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+1
63.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 1 yd to the RICE 41Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
63.8%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:4465% → 74%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
64.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+13
65.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 13 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
65.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
65.8%
Jamari Hawkins run for 9 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
65.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+11
65.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 11 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for no gain to the RICE 30Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
65.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 9 yds to the RICE 21Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
63.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
64.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 9 yds to the RICE 10Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+1
64.5%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the RICE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 9 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0430% → 29%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
E.J. Warner run for 1 yd to the RICE 26Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
70.0%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
69.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.1%
Quinton Jackson run for no gain to the RICE 36Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
69.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+2
70.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 2 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 8
OWN 38
-5
70.5%
(03:24) BACCHETTA, Alex punt 48 yards to the MEM14, fair catch by DRAKE, Koby, clock 03:17. PENALTY Before the snap, RIC Illegal Formation on HEBEISEN, Jaggar enforced 5 yards from the RIC38 to the RIC33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+1
71.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 41 yds , Koby Drake returns for 1 yd to the MEM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:3971% → 81%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+31
71.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 31 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
73.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 13 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
73.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 12 yds to the RICE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
73.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 7 yds to the RICE 10Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
80.7%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5022% → 36%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 9 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
76.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
77.6%
Dean Connors run for 10 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
76.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 29 yds to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
63.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 27 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:3671% → 76%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
70.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 34 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
73.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 5 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
72.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+12
71.8%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 12 yds to the RICE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
72.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+42
75.5%
Tristian Vandenberg 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
69.9%
Kneel down by WARNER, E.J. at MEM37 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 3 yds · 4:3571% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
71.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
69.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 9 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
72.0%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
73.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
72.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the MEM 45Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
71.0%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
72.5%
(11:41) ANDERSON JR., Mario rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the MEM48 (FLOWERS, Tyson), out of bounds, clock 11:33. PENALTY MEM Holding on BRELAND, Malachi enforced 10 yards from the MEM47 to the MEM37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 20
OWN 37
0
70.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 20
OWN 37
-9
72.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Ty Morris for a loss of 9 yards to the MEM 28Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 29
OWN 28
0
71.1%
Joshua Sloan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15FUMBLE
10 plays · 69 yds · 5:4828% → 35%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
71.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 6 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
70.5%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 33Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+11
71.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 11 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
69.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 21 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
66.8%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
66.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 6 yds Dean Connors fumbled, recovered by RICESimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
67.6%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the MEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
66.1%
Quinton Jackson run for 12 yds to the MEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
66.2%
Quinton Jackson run for 9 yds to the MEM 2Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 1
OPP 2
-3
65.5%
E.J. Warner run for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 5 E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by MEM Chandler Martin C. Martin return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0772% → 72%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
72.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 8Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-4
72.7%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Koby Drake) to the MEM 4Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+19
72.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 19 yds Koby Drake fumbled, recovered by MEM Koby Drake K. Drake return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
73.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
73.3%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 6 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
72.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
71.6%
Joshua Sloan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1530% → 28%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
70.0%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
67.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 7 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
67.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
68.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
69.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
72.2%
Conor Hunt punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 4:1473% → 90%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
73.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+15
72.7%
Rice Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Blake Boenisch) to the MEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
74.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
75.6%
PENALTY MEM Unsportsmanlike Conduct RIC Unsportsmanlike Conduct , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down), clock 15:00.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
75.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+34
74.7%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 34 yds to the RICE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
77.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the RICE 23Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+3
78.0%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the RICE 20Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+2
76.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the RICE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
78.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the RICE 14Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
90.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 14 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3611% → 8%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.7%
Rice Penalty, False Start (David Stickle) to the RICE 20Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
88.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the RICE 24Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
89.1%
Rice Penalty, False Start (Brant Banks) to the RICE 19Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
89.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 4 yds to the RICE 23Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
91.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
91.6%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4292% → 91%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
92.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
91.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
91.1%
Joshua Sloan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:009% → 8%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
91.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
91.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 1 yd to the RICE 15Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
92.1%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
92.4%
Reese Keeney punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the RICE 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:3993% → 97%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
92.9%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the RICE 40Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+9
93.3%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
93.5%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
94.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the RICE 25Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+1
94.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the RICE 24Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
96.8%
Tristian Vandenberg 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:274% → 17%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
95.6%
Quinton Jackson run for 45 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
94.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
94.6%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+2
95.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds to the MEM 25Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+13
95.5%
(02:40) WARNER, E.J. pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MOJARRO, Elijah thrown to the MEM0, clock 02:36. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on HUDSON, Matt enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the MEM12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
94.5%
Rice Penalty, False Start (Brant Banks) to the MEM 17Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+2
94.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 2 yds to the MEM 15Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 13
OPP 15
0
94.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+10
95.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 10 yds to the MEM 5Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+5
83.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 5 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3494% → 97%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the MEM 26Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
94.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
95.6%
TEAM run for 8 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
96.6%
(01:03) [NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at MEM32 (team loss of 5), clock 00:50.Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-3
96.5%
(00:21) [NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at MEM29 (team loss of 3), clock 00:18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:42
Brandon Thomas run for 14 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q2 0:38
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 27 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q4 1:55
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 5 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com