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Florida Atlantic 14 at East Carolina 49

ECU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2024 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:37 · Luke Larsen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Omari Hayes at the FAU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+12.1Score differential+5.6Pregame prior+12.0Blowout margin−0.5Garbage-time factor+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:33: Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 47 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +1.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:56: Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +3.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:07: Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jabari Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +7.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:18: Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +9.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:17: Katin Houser run for 35 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:36FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47FAU 4th & 1 at ECU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−1.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:59FAU 4th & 16 at ECU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 12 at ECU 45, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    17.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:30ECU 4th & 7 at FAU 34, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:37ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 45, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:07FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 26, down 14
    Close callPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:55FAU 4th & 1 at ECU 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:43FAU 4th & 3 at ECU 3, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:15ECU 4th & 1 at FAU 37, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:13FAU 4th & 8 at ECU 11, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:36ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:33ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:56ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:07FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:18ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:17ECU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:05ECU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:25ECU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:07FAU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2471% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
71.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyler Savage for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
50
+50
71.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Chase Sowell for 50 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5929% → 28%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.2%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
71.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jabari Smith for 7 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
71.4%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for no gain to the FAU 34Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
71.5%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, Delay Of Game (Cam Fancher) to the FAU 29Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
71.6%
Logan Lupo punt for 53 yds , Winston Wright Jr. returns for 4 yds to the ECU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:5672% → 74%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
71.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
71.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
71.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 19 yds to the FAU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
73.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 47 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:3327% → 24%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
72.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 20 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
73.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
73.1%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
73.3%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
73.6%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FAU 49Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+5
74.0%
(08:51) LUPO, Logan punt 43 yards to the ECU8 out of bounds, clock 08:47. PENALTY ECU Running Into the kicker on HOLMES, Noah enforced 5 yards from the FAU49 to the ECU46 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+10
73.8%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 10 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
74.2%
Cam Fancher run for 5 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-4
74.2%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 35Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-7
74.9%
Cam Fancher sacked by Zakye Barker for a loss of 7 yards to the ECU 42Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
75.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5677% → 82%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.5%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ECU 22Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
76.7%
Katin Houser run for 8 yds to the ECU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+30
77.0%
Jhari Patterson run for 30 yds to the FAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
77.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 5 yds to the FAU 35Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+16
77.9%
London Montgomery run for 16 yds to the FAU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
78.0%
London Montgomery run for 9 yds to the FAU 10Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
78.3%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the FAU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:5618% → 15%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.3%
Gemari Sands run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 23Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+34
83.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Gemari Sands for 34 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
82.7%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
83.2%
Gemari Sands run for 2 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-10
83.7%
(00:39) QB Keeper WEISMAN, Kasen rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the ECU37, out of bounds, clock 00:32. PENALTY FAU Holding on RICHARDSON, Daughtry enforced 10 yards from the ECU41 to the FAU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+6
84.8%
Kasen Weisman run for 6 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 45
+7
84.9%
Kasen Weisman run for 7 yds to the ECU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7MISSED FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:2085% → 87%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
84.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 25 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
85.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the FAU 32Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
86.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-1
86.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 29Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 2
OPP 29
-5
86.7%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FAU 34Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+52
86.9%
Andrew Conrad 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:2214% → 19%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.4%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
86.7%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 9 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
86.5%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 5 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
87.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+5
87.1%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
87.4%
Omari Hayes run for 7 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+7
87.2%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Omari Hayes for 7 yds to the ECU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
87.7%
Gemari Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 29Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+21
87.8%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jabari Smith for 21 yds to the ECU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
87.7%
Gemari Sands run for 7 yds to the ECU 1Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
88.0%
Gemari Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 2Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.6%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jabari Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2883% → 84%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 8 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
83.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
83.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECU 43Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-8
83.9%
Katin Houser sacked by Gavench Marcelin for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 35Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
83.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 10 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
83.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Omari Hayes at the FAU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2517% → 16%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
82.9%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 18Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+8
83.3%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 8 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
83.9%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+2
84.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 49 yds , Winston Wright Jr. returns for 2 yds to the ECU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3685% → 94%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
85.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 8 yds to the ECU 35Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+64
85.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 64 yds to the FAU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:208% → 8%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.6%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 8 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
92.1%
Logan Lupo punt for 34 yds , Winston Wright Jr. returns for 8 yds to the ECU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:2895% → 98%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
94.9%
Katin Houser run for 14 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
95.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to London Montgomery for 10 yds to the FAU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.2%
Katin Houser run for 35 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
98.3%
Gemari Sands run for 4 yds to the FAU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15INT
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:153% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
97.5%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 26Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
98.4%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Omari Hayes for 14 yds to the FAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.6%
Kasen Weisman run for 3 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
98.6%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jr. Leon Washington for 14 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.6%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
98.6%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+4
98.6%
Tyriq Starks run for 4 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
98.7%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, False Start (Malcolm Lamar) to the ECU 38Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+12
98.9%
Tyriq Starks run for 12 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-8
98.8%
Tyriq Starks pass intercepted Ja'Marley Riddle return for 8 yds to the ECU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3199% → 99%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
99.0%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Jimarion McCrimon) to the ECU 24Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
99.1%
Winston Wright Jr. run for 15 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.2%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
99.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
99.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 8 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
99.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 46 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17INT
14 plays · 91 yds · 6:191% → 0%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.5%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+22
99.5%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 22 yds to the FAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
99.5%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 27Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+13
99.6%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Omari Hayes for 13 yds to the FAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.6%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 12 yds to the ECU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.6%
Gemari Sands run for no gain to the ECU 48Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.6%
Kasen Weisman run for 9 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
99.6%
Xavier Terrell run for 2 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
99.7%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jabari Smith for 27 yds to the ECU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.7%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.7%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
99.8%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jabari Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 3Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.6%
Kasen Weisman pass intercepted, touchback. Gavin Gibson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 8:10100% → 100%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+9
99.7%
Jhari Patterson run for 9 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
99.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+1
99.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+14
99.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 14 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the FAU 45Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
99.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
99.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 6 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+5
99.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the FAU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+22
99.9%
Jhari Patterson run for 22 yds to the FAU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the FAU 5Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the FAU 2 fumbled, recovered by ECU Jayvontay Conner J. Conner return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 6:140% → 0%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
99.9%
Xavier Terrell run for 29 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
50
+15
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Dominique Henry for 15 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Milan Tucker for 2 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
Kasen Weisman run for 8 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to George Johnson III for 12 yds to the ECU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+2
100.0%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Gemari Sands for 2 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+8
100.0%
Kasen Weisman run for 8 yds to the ECU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
100.0%
Gemari Sands run for 1 yd to the ECU 2Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
Kasen Weisman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
(01:05) [NH] Kneel down by JETER, Raheim at ECU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:56.Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
100.0%
(00:32) [NH] Kneel down by JETER, Raheim at ECU23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:18
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 6:07
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Jabari Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q1 2:56
Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com