Try the model
NAVY

Navy 10 at Rice 24

RICE
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the RICE 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior−7.4Home team on offense+19.4Score differential+8.9Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:41: E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 17 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +6.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:48: Blake Horvath run for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q3 12:53: Riley Riethman punt for 56 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 20 yds to the RICE 32 — RICE win probability +5.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:38: Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the RICE 20 — RICE win probability +6.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:00: Dean Connors run for 9 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +20.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:45RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:34NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:42NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41RICE 4th & 6 at NAVY 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:18RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:47NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:04RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 49, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:38NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:53NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:17RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:38NAVY 4th & 2 at RICE 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−1.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−12.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at RICE 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−2.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 2 at RICE 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−1.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−8.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:34NAVY 4th & 4 at RICE 4, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:21RICE 4th & 17 at NAVY 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:36NAVY 4th & 21 at NAVY 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:08RICE 4th & 4 at NAVY 22, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:30RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:41RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:48NAVY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:00RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0523% → 25%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
23.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 6 yds to the RICE 35Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
23.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for no gain to the RICE 35Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+9
23.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 9 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
24.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
24.2%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 45Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+4
24.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 4 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
24.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.9%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Tyson Flowers return for no gain to the NAVY 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:5825% → 28%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
25.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 17 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
25.4%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+21
25.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 21 yds to the NAVY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
26.2%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the NAVY 4Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.4%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5072% → 70%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.7%
Alex Tecza run for 12 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
27.8%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
28.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the NAVY 42Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-5
28.8%
(07:46) PENALTY Navy False Start (Nichols,Cam) 5 yards from Navy42 to Navy37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+3
29.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 3 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+30
30.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 52 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 30 yds to the RICE 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:4031% → 41%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
31.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 32 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
32.2%
(06:06) PENALTY Rice False Start (Banks,Brant) 5 yards from Navy30 to Navy35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-2
32.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 37Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+3
32.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 3 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+17
33.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 14 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST down to for 17 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
34.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
34.6%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
40.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 17 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5562% → 60%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.5%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
39.4%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.8%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
40.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 59 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 12 yds to the RICE 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:5142% → 53%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
41.8%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 27Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
42.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 2 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+12
43.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 12 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
45.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 15 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
45.7%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the NAVY 43Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+10
46.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 10 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
48.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 4 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
48.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
53.2%
Tim Horn 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4650% → 58%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+32
51.7%
Blake Horvath run for 32 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
51.0%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
51.8%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
52.5%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
53.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Amin Hassan for 23 yds to the RICE 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
52.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the RICE 9Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
41.9%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1944% → 42%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
44.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
44.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
43.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
42.2%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2354% → 51%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
45.9%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
47.2%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
48.5%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+22
49.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 22 yds to the RICE 48 Rice Penalty, Illegal Block (Peyton Stevenson) to the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5047% → 49%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
47.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 5 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+12
47.7%
Dean Connors run for 12 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
49.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 5 yds to the RICE 46Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
50.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 3 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
49.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
49.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:2147% → 44%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
52.9%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 4Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+6
54.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 6 yds to the NAVY 10Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+2
55.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the NAVY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
54.5%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
54.5%
Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+1
55.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 13Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+10
56.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:5859% → 62%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
50
+6
59.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 6 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
58.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
57.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 9 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.5%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
56.6%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0745% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.5%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
55.3%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
55.8%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+20
61.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 56 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 20 yds to the RICE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3661% → 62%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
61.1%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
61.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+4
59.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
61.5%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:3939% → 35%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
61.3%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+38
60.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 38 yds to the RICE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
57.1%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Fofana,Daba) 5 yards from Rice27 to Rice32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+3
58.4%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+7
57.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the RICE 22Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+3
58.7%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the RICE 19Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+1
64.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the RICE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:3867% → 91%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
67.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 13 yds to the RICE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
67.4%
PENALTY Navy Personal Foul (Campbell,Jaxson) 15 yards from Rice33 to Rice48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
69.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for 8 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+7
69.4%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
69.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 5 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
69.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Graham Walker for 4 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+5
68.5%
Quinton Jackson run for 5 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
69.9%
Quinton Jackson run for 6 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
69.8%
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds to the NAVY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
69.8%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the NAVY 9Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
69.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
90.7%
Dean Connors run for 9 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19FG
19 plays · 71 yds · 8:2611% → 10%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 9 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
88.5%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
88.4%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 39 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by NAVY Blake HorvathSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-2
90.4%
Blake Horvath sacked by Michael Daley for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+15
91.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 15 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line Brandon Chatman fumbled, recovered by NAVY Ben Purvis , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
50
+5
90.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 5 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
90.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 4 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+5
90.5%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
90.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
88.9%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
89.6%
Alex Tecza run for no gain to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+5
89.7%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the RICE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
88.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 16 yds to the RICE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
88.9%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
88.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the RICE 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.6%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
89.7%
Nathan Kirkwood 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:0694% → 97%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
94.2%
Dean Connors run for 11 yds to the RICE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
94.4%
Dean Connors run for 14 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
94.6%
Dean Connors run for 28 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.1%
Quinton Jackson run for no gain to the NAVY 21Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-15
96.1%
PENALTY Rice Personal Foul (Banks,Brant) 15 yards from Navy21 to Navy36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 25
OPP 36
+12
96.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 12 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 13
OPP 24
-5
95.9%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Sykes,Matt) 5 yards from Navy24 to Navy29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 18
OPP 29
+1
95.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 1 yd to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+46
96.7%
Tim Horn 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 0 yds · 1:454% → 3%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
96.3%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
96.3%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+4
96.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.3%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-15
96.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Horvath,Blake pass incomplete deep left to Chatman,Brandon thrown to Rice41 PENALTY Navy UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Self,Brent) 15 yards from Navy39 to Navy24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 25
OWN 24
-9
96.6%
Blake Horvath sacked by Peyton Stevenson for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 15Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 34
OWN 15
+13
97.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Jake Norris for 13 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 21
OWN 28
0
97.4%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:2898% → 99%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
98.4%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
98.4%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
99.2%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 4
OPP 22
-11
99.2%
E.J. Warner sacked by Colin Ramos for a loss of 11 yards to the NAVY 33 E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by NAVY Jaxson Campbell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23INT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:142% → 1%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.5%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
98.5%
PENALTY Navy Delay Of Game 5 yards from Navy33 to Navy28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Gabriel Taylor return for no gain to the RICE 44Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Gabriel Taylor return for no gain to the RICE 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
99.3%
Kneel down by Rice at Rice41 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 41
-2
99.3%
Kneel down by Rice at Rice39 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:00
Dean Connors run for 9 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+20.8
TD · Q2 8:48
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-10.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 7:38
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the RICE 20
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com