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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:31 · Deshawn Purdie pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:45: Makhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick) — TULN win probability +6.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Stephen Rusnak 29 Yd Field Goal — CLT win probability +3.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:36: Jacob Barnes 34 Yd Field Goal — TULN win probability +0.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:27: Micah Robinson 21 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick) — TULN win probability +8.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:08: Makhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick) — TULN win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 12:58CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.4%average punt
- Q1 3:53TULN 4th & 4 at CLT 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.2%48% to convertField goal76.0%−0.249% to makePunt75.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:00TULN 4th & 13 at CLT 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snapGo for it74.5%−0.518% to convertField goalTheir call75.0%81% to makePunt73.3%−1.7average punt
- Q2 14:06CLT 4th & 12 at TULN 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.6%−0.224% to convertField goal24.7%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call24.8%average punt
- Q2 9:53TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 23, up 3Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it72.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.9%−0.7average punt
- Q2 7:31CLT 4th & 2 at TULN 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.2%57% to convertField goal27.4%−0.868% to makePunt23.0%−5.1average punt
- Q2 0:00CLT 4th & 11 at TULN 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.3%−0.722% to convertField goalTheir call19.9%87% to makePunt15.9%−4.1average punt
- Q3 9:36TULN 4th & 4 at CLT 16, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.1%46% to convertField goalTheir call77.0%−0.181% to makePunt70.1%−7.0average punt
- Q3 6:26CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 21, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it9.9%−2.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.1%average punt
- Q4 12:40CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 47, down 24Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.3%average punt
- Q4 9:18TULN 4th & 7 at CLT 16, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%81% to makePunt97.5%−0.9average punt
- Q4 5:43CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 44, down 24Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%average punt
- Q4 1:40CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 15, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q2 1:45TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.2%97% to makeGo for two79.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:27TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:08TULN Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.0%45% to convert
- Q4 2:22TULN Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5619% → 20%
Q1 14:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
18.8%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Sean Brown for 9 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+57
19.5%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Dontae Fleming at the TULN 8 Tulane Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the TULN 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2FG22 plays · 80 yds · 10:4580% → 76%
Q1 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+23
22.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 23 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
22.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 6 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
22.4%
Darian Mensah sacked by Mordecai McDaniel for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 44Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+5
23.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 5 yds to the CLT 39Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+6
23.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 6 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+20
23.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 20 yds to the CLT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3924% → 25%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.1%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 12 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
24.5%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 24 yds to the TULN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
26.5%
Deshawn Purdie sacked by Dickson Agu for a loss of 5 yards to the TULN 41Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
24.8%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TULN 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 4:0575% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5DOWNS7 plays · 35 yds · 1:5629% → 28%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
30.2%
Purdie, Deshawn pass incomplete to Blake, O'Mega, PENALTY TULANE pass interference 15 yards to the TULANE17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
30.2%
Charlotte Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (O'Mega Blake) to the TULN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+5
29.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Sean Brown for 5 yds to the TULN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD16 plays · 76 yds · 5:3473% → 82%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
26.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Reggie Brown for 3 yds to the TULN 27Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+13
27.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 13 yds to the TULN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
26.3%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 16 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
25.5%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 2 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
26.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 8 yds to the CLT 9Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
25.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 2 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TULN Darian MensahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7END OF HALF11 plays · 43 yds · 1:3021% → 25%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+34
21.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 25 yds to the TULN 18 for a 1ST down Tulane Penalty, Personal Foul (Jack Tchienchou) to the TULN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
22.3%
Deshawn Purdie sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 5 yards to the TULN 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8FG11 plays · 59 yds · 5:0978% → 80%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 11 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
20.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 4 yds to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
21.0%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+19
20.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 19 yds to the CLT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+3
20.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 3 yds to the CLT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9INT TD5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5919% → 12%
CLTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5612% → 11%
TULNDrive 11TD14 plays · 68 yds · 7:1390% → 98%
Q3 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
9.9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 8 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
8.6%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 9 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
8.1%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 2 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+25
6.8%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 25 yds to the CLT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+10
6.2%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 10 yds to the CLT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 1:222% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13MISSED FG8 plays · 31 yds · 3:1598% → 98%
Q4 9:42
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-2
1.4%
Darian Mensah sacked by Chantz Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 27 yds · 3:282% → 1%
TULNDrive 15TD8 plays · 47 yds · 3:1499% → 100%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
0.8%
Mensah, Darian pass complete to Bauman, Alex for 3 yards to the CHARLOTTE44, PENALTY TULANE illegal formation 5 yards to the TULANE48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+15
0.8%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 15 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
0.7%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Shaadie Clayton-Johnson for 10 yds to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
0.7%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 11 yds to the CLT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
0.6%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 2 yds to the CLT 11 for a 1ST down Charlotte Penalty, Illegal Block (Reid Williford) to the CLT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:280% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17END OF GAME4 plays · 49 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
0.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 11 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST down Charlotte Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Elijah Culp) to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
0.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 15 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:27
Micah Robinson 21 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)
-8.2
TD · Q2 1:45
Makhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)
-6.8
TD · Q4 14:08
Makhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)
-3.9