Try the model
UTSA

UTSA 45 at Tulsa 46

TLSA
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:16 · Angus Davies punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense−15.8Pregame prior−11.8Score differential−7.3Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:01: Daemian Wimberly 28 Yd Fumble Return (Owen McCown Pass to Patrick Overmyer for Two-Point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +11.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:21: Cooper Legas pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (C. Legas Run For Two-point Conversion) — TLSA win probability +13.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:26: Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +19.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:26: Timeout UTSA, clock 02:26 — UTSA win probability +12.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:01: Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +58.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UTSA made the numbers' call on 14 of 15
  1. Q1 13:03TLSA 4th & 19 at TLSA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34UTSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:21TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:13UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:21TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, down 20
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:19UTSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 2, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:10TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 5, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:14UTSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:14UTSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:35UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:29TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:13UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:13UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:59TLSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:10UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 35, up 18
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:34UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:22TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:26UTSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−2.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−2.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:21UTSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−5.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:26TLSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 20, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−2.8
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:02UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:34UTSA 4th & 10 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.2%−2.9
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:34UTSA 4th & 10 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.2%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:35UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:57UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:54UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:58TLSA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:00UTSA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:01UTSA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:52TLSA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:30UTSA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:50TLSA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:21TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:26TLSA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:01TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−7.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4932% → 33%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
32.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 24Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
32.4%
Kirk Francis sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TLSA 19Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+2
32.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 2 yds to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-5
32.8%
PENALTY TLS Delay Of Game (Davies,Angus) 5 yards from TLS21 to TLS16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
32.9%
Angus Davies punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:2267% → 68%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
32.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 4 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+6
33.0%
Robert Henry run for 6 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
33.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 6 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
33.2%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
33.5%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
33.4%
Robert Henry run for 11 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
33.5%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
33.6%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Jamel HardySimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
32.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 9 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5533% → 32%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
32.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 24Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
32.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
32.0%
Angus Davies punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5768% → 68%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
32.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+14
32.0%
Chris Carpenter run for 14 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
31.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 12 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
31.6%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick OvermyerSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
31.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
31.7%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick OvermyerSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
32.1%
Caile Hogan punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0832% → 32%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 19Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+15
32.2%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep right to Benjamin,Kamdyn thrown to TLS45 PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Harris,Denver) 15 yards from TLS19 to TLS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.5%
Kirk Francis run for no gain to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
32.4%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
32.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Luke McGarySimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
31.9%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0468% → 67%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
32.1%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Houston ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
32.3%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Willie McCoySimilar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+9
32.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 9 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-5
31.9%
PENALTY UTSA Delay Of Game (Hogan,Caile) 5 yards from UTSA38 to UTSA33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
32.6%
Caile Hogan punt for 47 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the TLSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4532% → 32%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
32.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 12 yds to the TLSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
32.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+3
32.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 3 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+5
32.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 5 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Angus Davies punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:1668% → 73%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
32.3%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+69
27.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 69 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:3328% → 28%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.9%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
27.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 18 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
28.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 4 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
28.5%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 3
50
+7
28.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 7 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
28.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-5
28.0%
Kirk Francis sacked by Brevin Randle for a loss of 5 yards to the TLSA 49Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 18
OWN 49
-15
27.7%
Kirk Francis sacked by Ronald Triplette for a loss of 15 yards to the TLSA 31 Kirk Francis fumbled, recovered by UTSA Jamal Ligon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:1574% → 82%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
26.0%
Bryson Donnell run for 8 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+23
18.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 23 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5022% → 30%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.8%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.6%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+24
21.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Corey Smith for 24 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
22.0%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTSA 46Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
21.9%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+15
21.7%
PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul (Robinson,Jimmori) 15 yards from UTSA46 to UTSA31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
29.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Bill Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5873% → 85%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
27.2%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Rios,Ben) 5 yards from UTSA25 to UTSA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
27.4%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
27.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 12 yds to the UTSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
26.1%
Bryson Donnell run for 1 yd to the UTSA 39Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+49
26.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 49 yds to the TLSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
25.3%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
14.6%
Robert Henry run for 9 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3619% → 19%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.8%
Bill Jackson run for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
19.0%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Bill JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
19.0%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.6%
Angus Davies punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4284% → 87%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
15.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 12 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.2%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Dan DishmanSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
15.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+27
14.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 27 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
13.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 13 yds to the TLSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
13.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jace Wilson for 12 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
13.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TLSA 7Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
12.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
12.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
13.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TLSA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5616% → 16%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
16.2%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for no gain to the TLSA 2Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
15.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
15.6%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Jack WrightSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
15.6%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the TLSA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:4888% → 90%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
11.8%
Robert Henry run for 7 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
11.5%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Robert HenrySimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
11.8%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
9.9%
Robert Henry run for 9 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
9.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Houston ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
9.7%
Owen McCown run for no gain to the TLSA 25Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
10.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Willie McCoySimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
10.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Willie McCoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1015% → 3%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
14.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 14 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
2.9%
Daemian Wimberly 28 Yd Fumble Return (Owen McCown Pass to Patrick Overmyer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:533% → 2%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
2.3%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1195% → 95%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.4%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
5.3%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Willie McCoySimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
5.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 1 yd to the UTSA 30Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
4.9%
Caile Hogan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:014% → 4%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
4.3%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the TLSA 19Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
3.8%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-4
4.0%
Cooper Legas sacked by Ronald Triplette for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 15Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
3.7%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:3196% → 92%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
3.8%
Robert Henry run for no gain to the UTSA 44Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+35
7.6%
Amieh Williams 35 Yd Fumble Return (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:3192% → 93%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
8.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 16 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
7.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 4 yds to the UTSA 45 UTSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UTSA 35Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 16
OWN 35
+6
7.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-13
7.2%
Owen McCown sacked by Owen Ostroski for a loss of 13 yards to the UTSA 28Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 23
OWN 28
+9
7.5%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Houston Thomas for 9 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
7.0%
Caile Hogan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
7.0%
Caile Hogan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:0510% → 14%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
10.1%
Cooper Legas run for 33 yds to the UTSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
11.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
10.8%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
10.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
14.2%
Seth Morgan 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2289% → 98%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.7%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the UTSA 24Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+40
10.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 40 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
9.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 16 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
8.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 12 yds to the TLSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
8.3%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the TLSA 9Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
8.2%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
8.5%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete short right to Carpenter,Chris thrown to TLS00 PENALTY TLS Offside (Newhouse,Tai) 4 yards from TLS09 to TLS05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 5 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:352% → 11%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.6%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+74
11.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 74 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4091% → 93%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
8.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to JJ Sparkman for 8 yds to the UTSA 21Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+6
8.6%
Bryson Donnell run for 6 yds to the UTSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
8.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 25Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+3
8.7%
Bryson Donnell run for 3 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+5
8.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete deep right to Wilson,Jace thrown to TLS45 PENALTY TLS Offside (Malone,Vontroy) 5 yards from UTSA28 to UTSA33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
8.7%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 35Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+2
6.6%
Caile Hogan punt for 34 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 2 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4910% → 25%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
9.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+32
10.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Luke McGary for 32 yds to the UTSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
11.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete deep right to Benjamin,Kamdyn thrown to UTSA00 PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Milton,Tyan) 15 yards from UTSA30 to UTSA15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
12.1%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the UTSA 11Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
12.1%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTSA 6Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
9.8%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 2 yds to the UTSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
10.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
10.2%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the UTSA 4Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (C. Legas Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
25.2%
Morgan,Seth kick attempt good (H: Kittleman,Stephen, LS: Matthews,Caleb) PENALTY UTSA Offside (Cooper,Camron) 2 yards from UTSA03 to UTSA01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4779% → 78%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
21.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 35Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
21.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
22.5%
Caile Hogan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0620% → 16%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
19.9%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
20.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
19.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
20.0%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the TLSA 37Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
19.3%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-1
18.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 36Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
16.3%
Angus Davies punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 30FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 6:0182% → 95%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
18.1%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (James,CJ) 5 yards from UTSA20 to UTSA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+6
17.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 6 yds to the UTSA 21Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
17.0%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete deep left to McCoy,Willie thrown to TLS49 PENALTY TLS Pass Interference (Williams,Georderrial) 15 yards from UTSA21 to UTSA36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
15.7%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+19
14.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 19 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
12.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
12.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 3 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
13.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 4 yds to the TLSA 36Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+3
13.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 3 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
11.6%
Robert Henry run for no gain to the TLSA 33Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
10.9%
Willie McCoy run for 3 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+10
10.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 10 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
9.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TLSA 19Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
8.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
9.0%
Robert Henry run for no gain to the TLSA 19Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
5.2%
Tate Sandell 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:487% → 26%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
6.6%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Legas,Cooper rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TLS27 (Robinson,Jimmori) PENALTY TLS Holding (Burnett,Reynard) 10 yards from TLS25 to TLS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+13
6.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 13 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
6.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
5.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 8 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
5.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 22 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-11
5.6%
Cooper Legas sacked by Camron Cooper for a loss of 11 yards to the TLSA 47 Cooper Legas fumbled, recovered by TLSA Lloyd Avant , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 21
OWN 47
+13
4.7%
Cooper Legas run for 13 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
5.5%
PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul (Taylor,Donyai) 15 yards from UTSA40 to UTSA25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
7.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
6.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+5
5.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 5 yds to the UTSA 20Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+20
25.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 32PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1889% → 87%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.9%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 21Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
11.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 8 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
10.7%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
13.4%
Caile Hogan punt for 63 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 33TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 0:5414% → 79%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
14.3%
Cooper Legas sacked by Jimmori Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 5 Cooper Legas fumbled, recovered by TLSA Rey Burnett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+27
17.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Joseph Williams for 27 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
17.4%
Cooper Legas run for 8 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
19.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+34
17.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 34 yds to the UTSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
27.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Corey Smith for 22 yds to the UTSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
26.8%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
79.4%
PENALTY UTSA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Simon,Asyrus) 15 yards from TLS35 to TLS50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 34DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:2132% → 32%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
68.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
50
0
58.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
50
0
61.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 10
50
0
64.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 10
50
0
68.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 10
50
0
68.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 35END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-4
94.6%
Kneel down by Tulsa at TLS46 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:01
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+58.4
TD · Q4 2:26
Cooper Legas pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q4 14:21
Cooper Legas pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (C. Legas Run For Two-point Conversion)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com