View as
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreTLSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:40 · Kirk Francis pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:55: Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 3 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +6.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:23: Terrez Worthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +12.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:59: Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 63 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:40: Seth Morgan 46 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +6.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:27: Evan Simon run for 3 yds to the TEM 21 — TEM win probability +5.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
- Q1 10:17TLSA 4th & 1 at TEM 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.7%70% to convertField goal40.4%−0.328% to makePunt40.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 7:40TEM 4th & 16 at TLSA 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snapGo for it59.0%−0.316% to convertField goal59.1%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call59.3%average punt
- Q1 6:14TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%average punt
- Q1 3:20TEM 4th & 2 at TLSA 10, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snapGo for it59.9%55% to convertField goalTheir call59.6%−0.388% to makePunt57.6%−2.3average punt
- Q1 2:25TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q2 9:55TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 49, down 10Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 2:16TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 21, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%−1.6average punt
- Q2 2:16TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 21, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%−1.6average punt
- Q2 1:35TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 36, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it83.2%−1.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 48, up 17Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 83.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.5%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt82.8%average punt
- Q3 10:29TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it87.3%−1.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.8%average punt
- Q3 7:15TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 38, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it78.6%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.9%average punt
- Q3 2:40TLSA 4th & 2 at TEM 27, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.5%57% to convertField goalTheir call18.9%−1.662% to makePunt11.4%−9.1average punt
- Q4 12:50TEM 4th & 10 at TLSA 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snapGo for it81.9%−1.728% to convertField goalTheir call83.6%70% to makePunt74.4%−9.1average punt
- Q4 11:12TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 42, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it12.8%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q4 8:35TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 11, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snapGo for it87.3%−0.351% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.5%average punt
- Q4 6:28TEM 4th & 4 at midfield, up 10Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.4%−0.7average punt
- Q4 2:40TLSA 4th & 29 at midfield, down 10Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%−0.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.9%average punt
- Q4 2:40TLSA 4th & 29 at midfield, down 10Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%−0.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:55TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.0%97% to makeGo for two67.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:23TEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.5%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:59TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.6%97% to makeGo for two20.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTLSADrive 1DOWNS11 plays · 31 yds · 4:3150% → 49%
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
50.4%
PENALTY TULSA Delay Of Game 5 yards from TULSA30 to TULSA25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.5%
(13:13) Shotgun Legas,Cooper pass incomplete short right to Tempest,Grayson thrown to TULSA43 PENALTY TEMPLE Holding (Osueke,Ben) 10 yards from TULSA25 to TULSA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+8
50.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 8 yds to the TEM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3252% → 51%
Q1 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
51.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 16 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-10
52.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for a loss of 10 yards to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-1
51.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 16
OPP 46
+31
51.3%
Dante Atton punt for 36 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 31 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5049% → 49%
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+2
51.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Bill Jackson for 2 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4FG7 plays · 87 yds · 2:4252% → 54%
TLSADrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4446% → 45%
TEMDrive 6TD11 plays · 53 yds · 4:0955% → 63%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 11
OWN 47
+24
54.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Joquez Smith for 24 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
56.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 10 yds to the TLSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
56.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ashton Allen for 7 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
55.8%
Shotgun Simon,Evan pass incomplete short middle to Hollawayne,Kajiya thrown to TULSA00 PENALTY TULSA Pass Interference (Williams,Ashton) 6 yards from TULSA08 to TULSA02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 3 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5138% → 37%
TEMDrive 8TD14 plays · 92 yds · 5:2063% → 83%
Q2 9:07
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+16
63.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Xavier Irvin for 16 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
64.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 20 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
65.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 3 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
67.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 8 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
67.3%
PENALTY TEMPLE Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TULSA37 to TULSA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+10
67.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 10 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+15
68.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Landon Morris for 15 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+14
70.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 14 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4322% → 20%
Q2 2:16
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+5
79.7%
Angus Davies punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEM 35 , Tyler Stewart returns for 5 yds to the TEM 26 Temple Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyree Alualu) to the TEM 35Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+5
79.7%
Angus Davies punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEM 35 , Tyler Stewart returns for 5 yds to the TEM 26 Temple Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyree Alualu) to the TEM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3583% → 83%
TLSADrive 11INT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:5920% → 17%
TEMDrive 12INT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2083% → 84%
TEMDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 24 yds · 4:1282% → 86%
Q3 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
83.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antonio Jones for 3 yds to the TEM 44Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
84.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Landon Morris for 7 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
86.4%
Dante Atton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD5 plays · 88 yds · 1:1115% → 26%
Q3 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+10
86.5%
(09:18) Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete short middle to Tempest,Grayson thrown to TULSA22 broken up by Lewis,Jaylen PENALTY TEMPLE Holding (Richardson,Torey) 10 yards from TULSA12 to TULSA22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
86.0%
(09:14) Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep left to Steptoe,Zion thrown to TEMPLE37 PENALTY TEMPLE Pass Interference (Richardson,Torey) 15 yards from TULSA22 to TULSA37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
74.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 63 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2576% → 76%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
75.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to James Della Pesca for 11 yds to the TEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-1
76.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Joquez Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 38Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
76.2%
Dante Atton punt for 39 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FG10 plays · 50 yds · 4:2224% → 30%
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
76.3%
(06:38) Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete short right to Ballard,Jeremiah thrown to TULSA37 PENALTY TEMPLE Holding (Osueke,Ben) 10 yards from TULSA26 to TULSA36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
75.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 16 yds to the TEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17FG16 plays · 59 yds · 4:3777% → 84%
Q3 0:53
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+8
78.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 8 yds to the TEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+11
80.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to John Adams for 11 yds to the TEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
84.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 1 yd to the TEM 45Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+17
84.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Landon Morris for 17 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+13
84.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 13 yds to the TLSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
84.4%
(13:04) Shotgun Simon,Evan pass incomplete short right to Hollawayne,Kajiya thrown to TULSA05 PENALTY TEMPLE Intentional Grounding offsetting TULSA Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1616% → 14%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 9 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:2885% → 86%
Q4 10:36
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-4
85.1%
(10:41) Shotgun Simon,Evan pass complete short middle to Littleton II,Antwain caught at TEMPLE11, for 4 yards to the TEMPLE12, End Of Play PENALTY TEMPLE Holding (King,Eric) 4 yards from TEMPLE08 to TEMPLE04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
87.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jamar Taylor Jr. for no gain to the TEM 11Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
86.4%
Dante Atton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TEM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3115% → 14%
TEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1891% → 92%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
90.5%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Worthy,Terrez rush right for 8 yards gain to the TULSA48 (Marcheselli,Zach), out of bounds PENALTY TEMPLE Holding (Venu,Davray) 10 yards from TEMPLE44 to TEMPLE34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+7
90.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 7 yds to the TEM 41Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+7
91.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 7 yds to the 50 yard line Temple Penalty, Illegal Motion (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22DOWNS17 plays · 38 yds · 3:368% → 5%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
92.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 7 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+3
91.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 3 yds to the TLSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
92.3%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete short right to Benjamin,Kamdyn thrown to TULSA34 PENALTY TULSA Personal Foul (Watkins,Anthony) 13 yards from TULSA27 to TULSA14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 23
OWN 14
+7
92.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 7 yds to the TLSA 21Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+15
93.2%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep left to Williams,Joseph thrown to TULSA50 PENALTY TEMPLE Pass Interference (Osueke,Ben) 15 yards from TULSA21 to TULSA36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
92.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 10 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
91.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 10 yds to the TEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
91.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Joseph Williams for 11 yds Joseph Williams fumbled, recovered by TLSA for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-8
91.3%
Kirk Francis sacked by Diwun Black for a loss of 8 yards to the TEM 46Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+15
93.4%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep right to Benjamin,Kamdyn thrown to TEMPLE15 PENALTY TEMPLE Pass Interference (Richardson,Torey) 15 yards from TEMPLE46 to TEMPLE31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
91.6%
Tulsa Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the TEM 45Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 24
OPP 45
-5
94.4%
Kirk Francis sacked by Tra Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23END OF GAME6 plays · 29 yds · 2:3096% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:23
Terrez Worthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q3 8:59
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 63 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 12:55
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 3 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
+6.3