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UNT

North Texas 44 at Memphis 52

MEM
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:10 · Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior+4.6Home team on offense+6.8Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:32: Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 9 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +22.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:33: Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 62 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +21.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:59: Chandler Morris run for 49 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +24.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:23: Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK) — MEM win probability +30.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:48: Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UNT win probability +18.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 5:28MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:23UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 39, tied
    Close callWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:54MEM 4th & 6 at UNT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:52UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:51MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:00UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:07MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:28UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:26UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:20MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:19UNT 4th & 6 at MEM 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:07MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.4
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:03UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.2%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:10UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:27UNT 4th & 13 at MEM 47, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:05MEM 4th & 3 at UNT 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−4.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:45UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:05MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:54UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:05MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:55UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:46UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 13:07MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:41MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:32UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:33MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:59UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:23MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:17MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:48UNT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5481% → 81%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.7%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 26Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
80.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 9 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
80.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 11 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
80.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 5 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+16
80.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 16 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+29
80.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 29 yds to the UNT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
80.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.0%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
79.6%
DT Sheffield run for 75 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4980% → 81%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.7%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
79.6%
Jamari Hawkins run for 7 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
79.4%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MEM 29Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+38
79.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 38 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
79.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 5 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+15
79.5%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 15 yds to the UNT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
79.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 8 yds to the UNT 5Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
81.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
78.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 75 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2778% → 78%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 3 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
78.3%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
77.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
77.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:3522% → 28%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
77.8%
Shane Porter run for 5 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+9
77.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 9 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
77.1%
Shane Porter run for 4 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
76.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Nick Rempert for 6 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
76.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 37 yds to the MEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
72.2%
Shane Porter run for 10 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:3374% → 78%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
73.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 12 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
73.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 3 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
73.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
72.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 10 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
72.9%
(00:02) HENIGAN, Seth pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHORTER, Jyaire thrown to the UNT10, clock 00:00. PENALTY UNT Offsides on DAWKINS, Terrell enforced 5 yards from the UNT45 to the UNT40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+29
72.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 29 yds to the UNT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
73.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
72.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+10
72.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:4025% → 25%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 22Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
75.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
75.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 14 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
74.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+3
74.9%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-21
75.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the UNT 18 fumbled, recovered by UNT return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1977% → 76%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
77.1%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the UNT 16Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+2
76.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 2 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
75.5%
Caden Costa 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5727% → 28%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
73.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 13 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
72.9%
Shane Porter run for 2 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
72.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+6
73.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for 6 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+1
71.7%
Chandler Morris run for 1 yd to the UNT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
81.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 42 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:5020% → 22%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.0%
Chandler Morris run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
79.6%
Shane Porter run for 14 yds to the UNT 43 Shane Porter fumbled, recovered by UNT Wyatt Young W. Young return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
79.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
78.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+15
79.3%
(05:58) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for YOUNG, Wyatt thrown to the MEM20, clock 05:54. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on GRIER, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the MEM39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
78.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 1 yd DT Sheffield fumbled, recovered by MEM Mond Cole M. Cole return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5581% → 80%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
81.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
81.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
80.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
79.8%
Joshua Sloan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:4820% → 18%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
80.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 8Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
80.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+11
80.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 11 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
79.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 18Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
80.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
81.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
81.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4782% → 81%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
82.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 48Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
82.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
81.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
80.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for 44 yds, downed at the UNT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:2719% → 18%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
81.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 8 yds to the UNT 16Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+5
80.6%
Shane Porter run for 5 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
80.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
80.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-3
81.4%
Chandler Morris sacked by Reggie Grimes II for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 18Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
81.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2181% → 80%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
80.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-1
80.2%
Seth Henigan sacked by Fatafehi Vailea II for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
79.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 22Similar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
80.3%
(01:02) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for YOUNG, Wyatt broken up by WATTS, AJ at the MEM35, clock 00:55. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on WATTS, AJ enforced 15 yards to the UNT37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 0:5320% → 27%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
79.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 9 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
77.8%
Shane Porter run for no gain to the UNT 46Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
78.4%
Shane Porter run for 3 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
78.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
78.8%
Chandler Morris run for 5 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+18
77.9%
Chandler Morris run for 18 yds to the MEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
77.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 12 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+34
73.2%
Kali Nguma 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2725% → 24%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
74.9%
Kiefer Sibley run for 1 yd to the UNT 23Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-4
75.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 19Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-1
76.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kiefer Sibley for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 18Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 14
OWN 18
+3
76.5%
Sawyer Evans punt for 56 yds , Koby Drake returns for 3 yds to the MEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5775% → 73%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
75.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
74.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-5
75.0%
Demeer Blankumsee run for a loss of 5 yards to the MEM 32Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
72.6%
Joshua Sloan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:5826% → 24%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
74.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 3 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
75.2%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+11
76.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 11 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
74.4%
Shane Porter run for 30 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
71.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 5 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-3
70.5%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 31Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+2
71.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
72.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-14
76.5%
Memphis Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Greg Rubin) to the MEM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0876% → 74%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
76.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 7 yds to the MEM 22Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
76.4%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 23Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
75.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
74.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the UNT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:2727% → 51%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 3 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
72.1%
Shane Porter run for 6 yds to the UNT 44Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
70.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
72.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 3 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
70.3%
(05:43) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CARNES, Dalton thrown to the MEM30, clock 05:40. PENALTY MEM Holding on BELL, DJ enforced 10 yards from the UNT47 to the MEM43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
69.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 8 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
67.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+10
69.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 10 yds to the MEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
67.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Landon Sides for 21 yds to the MEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
69.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for no gain to the MEM 4Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
71.5%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Leke Asenuga) to the MEM 9Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
49.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 9 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5955% → 78%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
56.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for no gain to the MEM 38Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+62
77.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 62 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3325% → 54%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 15 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
73.1%
Shane Porter run for 3 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
72.2%
DT Sheffield run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
50
+1
71.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 1 yd to the MEM 49Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+49
46.1%
Chandler Morris run for 49 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 4:3653% → 80%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
53.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 33Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+6
51.5%
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the MEM 39Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+20
50.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 20 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
55.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 19 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
57.5%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 24Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
56.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for no gain to the UNT 24Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+20
49.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 20 yds to the UNT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.0%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1226% → 23%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.4%
Chandler Morris run for 7 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
71.7%
Shane Porter run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
76.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
77.1%
Sawyer Evans punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:4779% → 95%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+53
79.0%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 53 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
83.7%
Seth Henigan sacked by Roderick Brown and Terrell Dawkins for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 22Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+15
83.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 15 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
85.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNT 5Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:286% → 25%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Shane Porter for 7 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
92.8%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Johnny Dickson III) to the UNT 27Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
93.7%
(04:36) MORRIS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SHEFFIELD, DT broken up by WATTS, AJ at the MEM38, clock 04:30. PENALTY UNT Holding on YOUNG JR., Brandon enforced 10 yards from the UNT27 to the UNT17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
94.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+23
94.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 23 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
93.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 16 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
92.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 47Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
95.4%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 13
OPP 47
+36
95.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 36 yds to the MEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
93.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Miles Coleman for 2 yds to the MEM 9Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
74.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 30FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:4392% → 98%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
91.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 9 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
94.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
94.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNT 31Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+3
95.0%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
94.5%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
98.4%
Tristian Vandenberg 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31INT
12 plays · 57 yds · 1:026% → 9%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
94.3%
Chandler Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 22Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
94.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 7 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+16
95.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 16 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
93.2%
Chandler Morris sacked by William Whitlow Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the UNT 35Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+23
94.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Wyatt Young for 23 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
91.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 24 yds to the MEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
87.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
87.5%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
90.8%
Chandler Morris pass intercepted, touchback. Chandler Martin return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:23
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristian Vandenberg KICK)
+30.5
TD · Q4 13:59
Chandler Morris run for 49 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-24.9
TD · Q3 2:32
Chandler Morris pass complete to DT Sheffield for 9 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-22.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com