Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 24 at UTSA 38

UTSA
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFUMBLEFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+9.6UTSA 85.6%Tate Sandell 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 30 · Q4 8:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:00 · Tate Sandell 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+15.3Pregame prior+1.7Garbage-time factor+9.9Score differential+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:46: Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — UTSA win probability +15.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:19: Robert Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — UTSA win probability +11.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 3:58: Owen McCown run for a loss of 15 yards Owen McCown fumbled, recovered by FAU Wendol Philord W. Philord return for 49 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +16.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:21: Tate Sandell 41 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +7.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:00: Tate Sandell 27 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:23FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25UTSA 4th & 8 at FAU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:03FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42UTSA 4th & 10 at FAU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:27FAU 4th & 1 at UTSA 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:07UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:12FAU 4th & 9 at UTSA 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:58FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:26UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:17FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:07UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−2.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:21UTSA 4th & 9 at FAU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−14.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:00UTSA 4th & 8 at FAU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−18.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:36FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:34FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:39FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:46UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:19UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:25UTSA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3637% → 37%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.2%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.2%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for no gain to the FAU 25Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.2%
Cam Fancher run for 8 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+48
63.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 48 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 6:4863% → 64%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
63.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 7 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+10
63.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 10 yds to the UTSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
63.2%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 33Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+6
63.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 6 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
63.1%
Owen McCown run for 8 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
63.4%
Robert Henry run for 8 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
63.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 4 yds to the FAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
63.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
63.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+9
63.6%
Owen McCown run for 9 yds to the FAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
63.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 2 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-1
63.7%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 27Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+10
63.4%
(07:43) MCCOWN, Owen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SPARKMAN, JJ thrown to the FAU2, clock 07:39. PENALTY FAU Holding on ANTOINE, Michal enforced 10 yards from the FAU27 to the FAU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
63.7%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the FAU 14Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-1
63.7%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 15Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
63.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
63.9%
Tate Sandell 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2136% → 35%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.8%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 23Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
63.9%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-2
64.3%
Cam Fancher sacked by Brandon Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 21Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
64.7%
Logan Lupo punt for 35 yds, downed at the UTSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1164% → 63%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
64.4%
Owen McCown run for 9 yds to the FAU 47Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
64.7%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
64.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Will Henderson III for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 44Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+1
64.6%
Owen McCown run for 1 yd to the FAU 43Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
64.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
63.4%
Caile Hogan punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0036% → 40%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for no gain to the FAU 20Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
63.8%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+76
60.4%
Cam Fancher run for 76 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4260% → 65%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.9%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the UTSA 25Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.7%
Owen McCown sacked by Jacob Merrifield and Jaden Wheeler for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 24Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+30
58.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 30 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
61.3%
Brandon High Jr. run for 4 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
64.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 42 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:1536% → 37%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
63.6%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
63.9%
Zuberi Mobley run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 26Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+12
64.4%
(13:59) FANCHER, Cam pass to the right incomplete intended for HENRY, Dom thrown to the FAU38, clock 13:55. PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference on FRAZIER, Zah enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the FAU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+35
63.0%
Zuberi Mobley run for 35 yds to the UTSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
61.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 12 yds to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
61.3%
Cam Fancher run for 1 yd to the UTSA 14Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+7
61.3%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 7 yds to the UTSA 7Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
61.9%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTSA 6Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
63.4%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-27
64.0%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Jayden Williams return for 27 yds to the UTSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:3438% → 44%
Q2 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
61.8%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 7 yards to the UTSA 10Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
61.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 4 yds to the UTSA 6Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.1%
Cam Fancher run for 6 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3158% → 57%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.4%
Will Henderson III run for 2 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
57.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-15
57.0%
Caile Hogan punt for 47 yds , Wendol Philord returns for a loss of 15 yards to the FAU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3444% → 51%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
56.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 26 yds to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
55.4%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-1
54.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
54.3%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
48.7%
Carter Davis 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:1052% → 51%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.1%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 24Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
51.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 24Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-41
50.6%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Jayden Williams return for 41 yds to the UTSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1354% → 55%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
46.1%
Zuberi Mobley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 17Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+9
45.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 9 yds to the UTSA 8Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+4
45.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 4 yds to the UTSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
45.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 5Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
44.6%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
44.9%
Cam Fancher sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the UTSA 12 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by UTSA Asyrus Simon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 2:3350% → 67%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
50.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 14 yds to the UTSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
50.1%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
49.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Brandon High Jr. for 15 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
51.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to JT Clark for 14 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
52.5%
Owen McCown sacked by Marlon Bradley for a loss of 3 yards to the FAU 48Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-1
50.3%
Owen McCown sacked by Jacob Merrifield for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 49Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+26
48.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 26 yds to the FAU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
53.0%
Owen McCown run for 3 yds to the FAU 20Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
52.8%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+10
51.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 10 yds to the FAU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
66.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 3 yds to the FAU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4061% → 76%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
61.5%
Will Henderson III run for 2 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+41
60.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 41 yds to the FAU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
65.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+19
65.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 19 yds to the FAU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
65.0%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the FAU 6Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
65.0%
Owen McCown run for 5 yds to the FAU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.1%
Robert Henry run for no gain to the FAU 1Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.3%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1928% → 27%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jabari Smith for 13 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
71.4%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 3 yds to the FAU 41Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-9
70.9%
Cam Fancher sacked by Davin Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the FAU 32Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+10
74.3%
Cam Fancher run for 10 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
73.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 45 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for no gain to the UTSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2776% → 74%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
75.9%
Brandon High Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
76.3%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
75.4%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 6
OWN 32
-15
74.3%
Caile Hogan punt for 41 yds , Wendol Philord returns for a loss of 15 yards to the FAU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0028% → 25%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
71.6%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
70.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the FAU 49Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-6
70.8%
Cam Fancher sacked by Vic Shaw and Jon Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the FAU 43Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
74.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1378% → 64%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
77.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 12 yds to the UTSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
78.1%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
77.7%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+33
76.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 33 yds to the FAU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
80.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 3 yds to the FAU 36Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
64.2%
Owen McCown run for a loss of 15 yards Owen McCown fumbled, recovered by FAU Wendol Philord W. Philord return for 49 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4960% → 58%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.3%
Brandon High Jr. run for 7 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
59.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 12 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
62.9%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
61.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 4 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-4
61.9%
Owen McCown sacked by Marlon Bradley for a loss of 4 yards to the UTSA 44Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
57.5%
Caile Hogan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Wendol Philord at the FAU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1344% → 39%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
55.7%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 12Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
56.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 14Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
57.7%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
59.1%
Logan Lupo punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
61.4%
(14:44) MCCOWN, Owen pass to the right complete for 13 yards to MCCOY, Willie caught at the UTSA38 and advanced to the FAU49 (ANTOINE, Michal), out of bounds, clock 14:38. PENALTY Before the snap, UTSA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UTSA38 to the UTSA33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0159% → 71%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+7
59.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 7 yds to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
62.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 1 yd to the UTSA 41Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+10
59.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jace Wilson for 10 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
63.9%
Robert Henry run for 24 yds to the FAU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
65.5%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the FAU 24Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
65.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
63.6%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
71.3%
Tate Sandell 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24PUNT
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:3832% → 29%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
68.5%
Cam Fancher sacked by Bryce Grays for a loss of 13 yards to the FAU 12Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
69.0%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 23
OWN 12
0
70.6%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2977% → 86%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
76.9%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 25Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+8
77.0%
Owen McCown run for 8 yds to the FAU 17Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+5
75.6%
Robert Henry run for 5 yds to the FAU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
77.3%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the FAU 10Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
77.5%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
76.0%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
85.6%
Tate Sandell 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2224% → 20%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
76.5%
Cam Fancher sacked by Jameian Buxton for a loss of 6 yards to the FAU 19Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
77.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 5 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
79.1%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
79.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 45 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for 7 yds to the UTSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:0188% → 98%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.8%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the UTSA 38Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.4%
Owen McCown run for 3 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+10
88.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 10 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.8%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the FAU 49Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+18
90.4%
Brandon High Jr. run for 18 yds to the FAU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
91.5%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-1
93.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 29Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+29
98.2%
Brandon High Jr. run for 29 yds for a TD (R. Henry Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28INT
11 plays · 36 yds · 1:433% → 2%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
97.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 18 yds to the FAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
97.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 5 yds to the FAU 47Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
97.1%
Cam Fancher run for 4 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
97.1%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
97.1%
Kasen Weisman pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 7 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-16
96.5%
Kasen Weisman sacked by Owen Pewee for a loss of 16 yards to the FAU 45Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+15
98.7%
(00:39) WEISMAN, Kasen pass to the right incomplete intended for HENRY, Dom thrown to the UTSA47; QB hurried by ROBINSON, Jimmori, clock 00:36. PENALTY UTSA Roughing the Passer on ROBINSON, Jimmori enforced 15 yards from the FAU45 to the UTSA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.3%
Kasen Weisman pass intercepted Owen Pewee return for no gain to the UTSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.3%
(00:21) [NHSG] Kneel down by MCCOWN, Owen at UTSA21 (team loss of 1), clock 00:18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 3:58
Owen McCown run for a loss of 15 yards Owen McCown fumbled, recovered by FAU Wendol Philord W. Philord return for 49 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q2 0:46
Owen McCown pass complete to Jamel Hardy for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 11:19
Robert Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com