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CLT

Charlotte 17 at Navy 51

NAVY
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:02 · Max Brown pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense+27.5Score differential+22.0Pregame prior+15.0Blowout margin+12.1Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:17: Alex Tecza run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +2.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:20: Alex Tecza run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +2.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q1 3:02: Nathan Kirkwood 22 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +0.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:21: Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 11 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 10:24: Trexler Ivey pass intercepted Dashaun Peele return for 61 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:04CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:02NAVY 4th & 4 at CLT 4, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:24CLT 4th & 8 at NAVY 41, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:49CLT 4th & 16 at NAVY 22, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:13NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 37, up 35
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:18NAVY 4th & 8 at CLT 42, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:02CLT 4th & 4 at NAVY 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:08NAVY 4th & 6 at midfield, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:56CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 5, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:56NAVY 4th & 20 at NAVY 15, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:07CLT 4th & 19 at CLT 16, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 46, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:09NAVY 4th & 25 at NAVY 33, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:31CLT 4th & 6 at NAVY 6, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:54NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 27, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:53CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 43, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:07NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:17NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:20NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:21NAVY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:24NAVY Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:09CLT Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:49NAVY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:55CLT Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:31NAVY Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:4382% → 82%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
82.1%
Alex Tecza run for 26 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
82.0%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 48Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+2
81.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+46
82.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 46 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5818% → 18%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
82.0%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the CLT 20Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+15
82.0%
(12:25) BROWN, Max pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BLAKE, O'Mega thrown to the NAVY44, clock 12:19. PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference on LANE, Rayuan enforced 15 yards to the CHAR35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+15
82.0%
(12:25) BROWN, Max pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BLAKE, O'Mega thrown to the NAVY44, clock 12:19. PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference on LANE, Rayuan enforced 15 yards to the CHAR35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
81.9%
Max Brown run for 1 yd to the CLT 36Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-7
81.9%
Max Brown sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 29Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+8
82.0%
Max Brown run for 8 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
82.0%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 13 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4482% → 84%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
50
+2
82.3%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
82.3%
Charlotte Penalty, Offsides (Stone Handy) to the CLT 43Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
82.3%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
82.2%
(08:38) FOFANA, Daba rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the CHAR38 (MARTIN, D'Andre), clock 08:34. PENALTY CHAR Offsides on HANDY, Stone enforced 5 yards from the CHAR37 to the CHAR32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
82.2%
(08:38) FOFANA, Daba rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the CHAR38 (MARTIN, D'Andre), clock 08:34. PENALTY CHAR Offsides on HANDY, Stone enforced 5 yards from the CHAR37 to the CHAR32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+14
82.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 14 yds to the CLT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
82.3%
Brandon Chatman run for 6 yds to the CLT 12Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
84.3%
Alex Tecza run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
83.6%
Max Brown pass intercepted Kyle Jacob return for no gain to the CLT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4684% → 87%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
84.4%
Alex Tecza run for 10 yds to the CLT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
84.5%
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the CLT 2Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.5%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
86.3%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 15 yds to the CLT 45 Hahsaun Wilson fumbled, recovered by NAVY Kyle Jacob K. Jacob return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:0087% → 89%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
87.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 20 yds to the CLT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
87.3%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the CLT 19Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+11
87.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 11 yds to the CLT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
87.7%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the CLT 6Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
88.0%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the CLT 4Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.2%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
89.0%
Nathan Kirkwood 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:1411% → 11%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.7%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
89.1%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the CLT 23Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
89.5%
Max Brown pass intercepted Rayuan Lane III return for no gain to the CLT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1690% → 95%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
90.4%
Alex Tecza run for 10 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
90.7%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
91.0%
Isaiah Bryant run for 10 yds to the CLT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
91.1%
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the CLT 13Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
91.5%
(14:27) QB Keeper HORVATH, Blake rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the CHAR11 (BUTLER, Dre), clock 14:23. PENALTY CHAR Offsides on JACKSON, Charlie enforced 5 yards from the CHAR13 to the CHAR8 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
91.5%
(14:27) QB Keeper HORVATH, Blake rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the CHAR11 (BUTLER, Dre), clock 14:23. PENALTY CHAR Offsides on JACKSON, Charlie enforced 5 yards from the CHAR13 to the CHAR8 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-3
91.7%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 11Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
94.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 11 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10INT TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:485% → 3%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
94.8%
Terron Kellman run for 13 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
94.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Sean Brown for 11 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
95.0%
Terron Kellman run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 46Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+2
95.4%
Terron Kellman run for 2 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+3
95.4%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 8
OPP 41
-61
96.6%
Trexler Ivey pass intercepted Dashaun Peele return for 61 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:224% → 4%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
96.3%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 18Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+1
96.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
97.2%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 11
OPP 17
-5
96.0%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the NAVY 22Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+39
95.7%
Stephen Rusnak 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2993% → 97%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
91.4%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+5
97.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 5 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
97.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for no gain to the CLT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:552% → 2%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
97.7%
Max Brown run for 12 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
Cartevious Norton run for 5 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
97.9%
Max Brown pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 4 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
97.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
98.3%
Max Brown pass complete to Colin Weber for 28 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
98.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 5 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+7
98.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 7 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.6%
Max Brown pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 20 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4198% → 99%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
97.9%
Blake Horvath run for 12 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.1%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
98.2%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.6%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 2 yds to the CLT 42Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
98.6%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
98.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15END OF HALF
9 plays · 56 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
98.7%
Terron Kellman run for 7 yds to the CLT 16Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
98.7%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+8
98.7%
Max Brown run for 8 yds to the CLT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
98.8%
Max Brown run for 13 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
98.7%
Max Brown run for 10 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
98.6%
Max Brown sacked by Dashaun Peele for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 45Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+20
98.7%
Terron Kellman run for 20 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:535% → 1%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
94.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 10 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
98.1%
Cartevious Norton run for 7 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
98.5%
Cartevious Norton run for 5 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
98.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
98.9%
Max Brown run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+1
98.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
98.6%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
99.1%
Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (O'Mega Blake) to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5299% → 99%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
99.1%
Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (O'Mega Blake) to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.1%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the CLT 49Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
99.1%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the CLT 48Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-2
99.3%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 6
50
0
99.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for no gain to the CLT 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
99.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 4 yds to the CLT 8Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
99.4%
Max Brown run for 4 yds to the CLT 12Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 2
OWN 12
-2
99.4%
Cartevious Norton run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 10Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 4
OWN 10
-5
99.5%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Hahsaun Wilson) to the CLT 5Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 9
OWN 5
0
99.5%
Bronson Long punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the CLT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.5%
Blake Horvath run for 11 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.6%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the CLT 28Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
99.6%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
99.6%
Max Brown pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 21 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+48
99.7%
Max Brown pass complete to Miles Burris for 48 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for no gain to the NAVY 13Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.7%
Max Brown pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 25Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Blake Horvath pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the NAVY 20Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
99.7%
(02:04) RIETHMAN, Riley punt 54 yards to the CHAR26, RUTLEDGE, Henry returned 8 yards to the CHAR34 (CAMPBELL, Jaxson;RAMOS, Colin), clock 01:57. PENALTY Before the snap, NAVY Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NAVY20 to the NAVY15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
99.7%
(02:04) RIETHMAN, Riley punt 54 yards to the CHAR26, RUTLEDGE, Henry returned 8 yards to the CHAR34 (CAMPBELL, Jaxson;RAMOS, Colin), clock 01:57. PENALTY Before the snap, NAVY Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NAVY20 to the NAVY15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-84
99.8%
Max Brown pass intercepted Dashaun Peele return for 84 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.8%
Charlotte Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Yards) to the CLT 13Similar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-2
99.8%
Max Brown sacked by Tyler Narayan for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 11Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 24
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+5
99.8%
Max Brown run for 5 yds to the CLT 16Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Bronson Long punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · -4 yds · 6:48100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.8%
Shane Reynolds run for 8 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
99.8%
Shane Reynolds run for 1 yd to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Shane Reynolds run for no gain to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 42 Braxton Woodson fumbled, recovered by NAVY Braxton Woodson B. Woodson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 42
-5
99.8%
Navy Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+2
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 39
-6
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 33Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 25
OWN 33
+9
99.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds , Henry Rutledge returns for 9 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 6
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Shane Reynolds run for 1 yd to the NAVY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 72 yds · 6:380% → 0%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 7 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Max Brown run for 2 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 11 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
99.9%
Max Brown pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
BROWN, Max pass deep incomplete intended for MYERS, Isaiah thrown to the NAVY6. PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference on ALLEN, Bryce enforced 15 yards to the NAVY19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+15
99.9%
BROWN, Max pass up the middle incomplete thrown to the NAVY17. PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference on MCSHAN, Kenneth enforced 15 yards to the NAVY2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the NAVY 8Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Max Brown run for 4 yds to the NAVY 4Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
99.9%
Max Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 6Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Max Brown sacked for 0 yards to the NAVY 6 Max Brown fumbled, recovered by CLT Hahsaun Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.9%
Shane Reynolds run for 4 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Amin Hassan run for no gain to the NAVY 23Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Shane Reynolds run for 4 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:010% → 0%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Max Brown run for 4 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
Max Brown run for 5 yds to the CLT 43Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:21
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 11 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q1 7:17
Alex Tecza run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+2
TD · Q1 6:20
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com