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UAB

UAB 25 at South Florida 35

USF
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:25 · Patrick Foley punt for 49 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the USF 32 , returns for no gain to the USF 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense−11.2Garbage-time factor−2.8Score differential−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:45: Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +13.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:25: Ta'Ron Keith run for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +13.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:51: Bryce Archie pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USF win probability +22.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:17: Kelley Joiner 1 Yd Run (Bryce Archie Pass to Michael Brown-Stephens for Two-Point Conversion) — USF win probability +44.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: Kelley Joiner 33 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick) — USF win probability +11.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 13
  1. Q1 14:06USF 4th & 6 at USF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24UAB 4th & 5 at USF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13USF 4th & 8 at USF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:24UAB 4th & 4 at USF 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:19USF 4th & 6 at USF 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:48UAB 4th & 6 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:21USF 4th & 11 at USF 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:45UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:34UAB 4th & 4 at USF 11, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:42UAB 4th & 8 at USF 33, down 1
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:58USF 4th & 2 at USF 44, up 1
    Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:21UAB 4th & 14 at USF 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:58UAB 4th & 2 at USF 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−2.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:05USF 4th & 10 at USF 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:25UAB 4th & 2 at UAB 21, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:12UAB 4th & 8 at USF 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:51USF 4th & 2 at UAB 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−2.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−18.0
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:02USF 4th & 3 at USF 39, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:02USF 4th & 8 at UAB 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:44UAB 4th & 13 at UAB 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−8.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:33UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.9%−3.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:52UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 37, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:21USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:45UAB Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:25USF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:51USF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:17USF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:55USF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5385% → 84%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.5%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USF 29Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
84.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
84.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3416% → 16%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
84.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
84.1%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
84.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 5 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
83.8%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
83.7%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
83.8%
Patrick Foley punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:0584% → 83%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
83.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 4Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+3
83.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+10
83.4%
UAB Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
83.5%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
83.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+6
83.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 6 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
83.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
83.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 30Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
82.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
82.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, downed at the UAB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:4317% → 19%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
82.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for 10 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
82.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for 5 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
82.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 2 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
81.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 8 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
81.8%
(07:35) KITNA, Jalen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MILLINER, Corri broken up by CHENAULT, James at the USF12, clock 07:30. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on CHENAULT, James enforced 15 yards to the USF29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
81.6%
Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the USF 28Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
81.5%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 5 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
81.2%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
81.1%
Jonah Delange 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0481% → 80%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 23Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
80.8%
(06:08) ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep up the middle complete for 77 yards to SMITH, JeyQuan caught at the UAB39 and advanced to the UAB0, TOUCHDOWN USF, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:01 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY USF Illegal Touch-Pass on SMITH, JeyQuan enforced 0 yards from the USF23 to the USF23, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
80.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2419% → 21%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
80.7%
Jalen Kitna sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 27 Jalen Kitna fumbled, recovered by UAB , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
80.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+19
80.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Dallas Payne for 19 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
79.5%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 43Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+11
79.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Dallas Payne for 11 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
78.9%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 1 yd to the USF 45Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
78.8%
UAB Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 6
50
0
78.9%
Patrick Foley punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:2679% → 77%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
78.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
78.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
78.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-5
79.0%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 32Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
78.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 38Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-8
78.5%
Bryce Archie sacked by Everett Roussaw Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 30Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+7
76.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 59 yds , Kam Shanks returns for 7 yds to the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:5523% → 23%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
77.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Bryce Damous for 13 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
77.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 12 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.4%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
76.5%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+10
77.1%
Patrick Foley punt for 40 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 10 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
80.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 67 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:4720% → 23%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
80.3%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 22Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
80.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 9 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
79.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
79.3%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+22
79.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Malachi Holt-Bennett for 22 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
77.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
77.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+25
78.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 25 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
77.2%
South Florida Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the USF 12Similar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+1
77.1%
Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the USF 11Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
76.6%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for no gain to the USF 11Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
77.4%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
77.4%
Jonah Delange 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4179% → 78%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
79.3%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 4 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
79.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
79.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 7 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
80.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
79.7%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
50
-7
80.5%
Bryce Archie sacked by Everett Roussaw Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 43Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+3
79.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-22
78.0%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Sirad Bryant return for 22 yds to the USF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5026% → 24%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
74.5%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
74.6%
Kam Shanks run for 2 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
75.2%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
76.5%
Patrick Foley punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4079% → 79%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
78.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 16 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
79.3%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the USF 31Similar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+10
78.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
79.8%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
79.1%
Bryce Archie run for no gain to the USF 44Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
78.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14FG
13 plays · 85 yds · 1:3021% → 29%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
79.3%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+21
79.5%
Jalen Kitna run for 21 yds to the UAB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
78.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
50
0
76.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
50
+18
76.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Dallas Payne for 18 yds to the USF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
74.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Dallas Payne for 7 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+15
74.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Bryce Damous for 15 yds to the USF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
74.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for 7 yds to the USF 3Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-11
76.1%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Rico Watson III for a loss of 11 yards to the USF 14Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
78.0%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
71.4%
Jonah Delange 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:1367% → 70%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
67.2%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 24 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.4%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-3
69.9%
Bryce Archie sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 43 Bryce Archie fumbled, recovered by USF Jack Wilty , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:1433% → 48%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
67.5%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 12 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+38
65.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 38 yds to the USF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
52.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:1367% → 76%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
32.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 7 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+11
31.8%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 11 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
30.1%
Lee Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
29.5%
Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the USF 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
29.3%
Trace Campbell run for 4 yds to the USF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
28.7%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
28.3%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+6
28.7%
Jalen Kitna run for 6 yds to the USF 33 Jalen Kitna fumbled, recovered by UAB Lee Beebe Jr. L. Beebe Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+22
30.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Bryce Damous for 22 yds to the USF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
25.2%
Jalen Kitna run for 4 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
24.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:3953% → 52%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
53.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 18 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
54.2%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
53.8%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
52.7%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
51.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 44 yds, downed at the UAB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3346% → 46%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
53.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for no gain to the UAB 13Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
53.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for 3 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+5
53.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Dallas Payne for 5 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 2
OWN 21
+49
53.6%
Patrick Foley punt for 49 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the USF 32 , returns for no gain to the USF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0552% → 59%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
47.9%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 4 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-2
47.1%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 30Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
47.7%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
41.2%
Jonah Delange 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:3943% → 55%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
42.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 2 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
41.9%
(09:24) ARCHIE, Bryce pass short to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, JeyQuan thrown to the USF39, clock 09:22. PENALTY UAB Unnecessary Roughness on DEMPSEY, Colby enforced 15 yards from the USF37 to the UAB48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
43.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
43.5%
(09:01) JOINER, Kelley rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UAB39 (ROUSSAW JR., Everett), clock 08:57. PENALTY Before the snap, UAB Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UAB44 to the UAB39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
43.2%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+15
40.4%
UAB Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Derrick Shepard Jr.) to the UAB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
42.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 14 yds to the UAB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
42.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the UAB 2Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
41.6%
(07:20) JOINER, Kelley rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the UAB1 (BROTHERS, O.C.;ROUSSAW JR., Everett), clock 07:14. PENALTY USF Personal Foul on KILFOYL, Andrew enforced 15 yards from the UAB2 to the UAB17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+13
40.8%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 13 yds to the UAB 4Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1349% → 51%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.0%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 10 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
49.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 2 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
48.8%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for no gain to the UAB 37Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-26
49.1%
Jalen Kitna pass intercepted Jhalyn Shuler return for 26 yds to the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:1054% → 73%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
53.9%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
53.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 7 yds to the UAB 11Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
50.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the UAB 10Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
72.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:1930% → 32%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.3%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
69.1%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
70.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Amare Thomas for 23 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
66.1%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
67.6%
Jalen Kitna run for 15 yds to the USF 32 Jalen Kitna fumbled, recovered by USF Tavin Ward T. Ward return for 0 yds UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) to the USF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1971% → 69%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
71.2%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 4 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
72.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
71.6%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+3
69.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds , Kam Shanks returns for 3 yds to the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:3636% → 34%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
35.5%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
35.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+24
33.6%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
50
+2
39.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
38.9%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
37.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
34.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, downed at the UAB 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:1165% → 71%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+20
34.8%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 20 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
31.4%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Jordan Hall) to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
32.7%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for no gain to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 15
OWN 22
0
32.6%
(08:36) KITNA, Jalen pass short to the left intercepted by AUGUSTIN, D'Marco at the UAB24 intended for THOMAS, Amare. Augustin return for 0 yards to the UAB24, End of Play, clock 08:33. PENALTY Before the snap, UAB Illegal Formation on HALL, Jordan USF Roughing the Passer on WILLIAMS II, Michael , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+7
27.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lee Beebe Jr. for 7 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
26.7%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Ira Singleton for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 24Similar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 13
OWN 24
+54
29.5%
Patrick Foley punt for 46 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 54 yds to the UAB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:3436% → 82%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
35.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the UAB 15Similar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
37.4%
Bryce Archie run for 6 yds to the UAB 1Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.6%
Kelley Joiner 1 Yd Run (Bryce Archie Pass to Michael Brown-Stephens for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4130% → 29%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
70.0%
Amare Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 28Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+9
71.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 9 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-1
68.0%
Trace Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 36Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
71.2%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:3386% → 98%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
85.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
87.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the UAB 33Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+33
98.3%
Kelley Joiner 33 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 31DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:025% → 4%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kam Shanks for 11 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Dallas Payne for 7 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-6
94.1%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Bernard Gooden for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 37Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Jalen Kitna pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32END OF GAME
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
98.6%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 7 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
98.7%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
98.7%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 3 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
98.8%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-2
98.8%
(00:20) [SG] Kneel down by KEITH, Ta'Ron at UAB25 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:17
Kelley Joiner 1 Yd Run (Bryce Archie Pass to Michael Brown-Stephens for Two-Point Conversion)
+44.2
TD · Q3 3:51
Bryce Archie pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+22.2
TD · Q3 6:25
Ta'Ron Keith run for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com